There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Bucs, Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a recent roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Atlanta Falcons
GM: Terry Fontenot, hired in January 2021
Coach: Arthur Smith, hired in January 2021
Atlanta spent several seasons shedding big names like Julio Jones and Matt Ryan and is forming their new identity. Desmond Ridder, a 3rd round pick from last season, is in line to be the starting quarterback, so the team can look to build a complete team if they don’t target a quarterback early in the draft. Teams like the Cowboys (Dak Prescott) and Seahawks (Russell Wilson) built strong rosters around mid-round quarterbacks and had extended runs of success, and the Falcons could look to do the same.
2021: down in 2nd
2022: up in 2nd
The two drafts under the current coach and GM don’t indicate much of what to expect, but this team has gone from actively losing players to trying to grow with players. A trade-up for one of the quarterbacks, like Anthony Richardson at #3, would be fun, but the logical path forward is to build through the lines, as they have done on the offensive side, and bring in good young players at every position.
Possible draft spots: Trading back is a more likely scenario than trading up for Atlanta, but they are also in a position to hang tight and take the best player available. Many offensive players will be taken in the top 10, meaning the value on defensive prospects should be high early in the draft and possibly throughout the 1st round. The Falcons could trade back and still land an impact defensive player later in round 1.
Carolina Panthers
GM: Scott Fitterer, hired in January 2021
Coach: Frank Reich, hired in January 2023
The new coach and quarterback will dictate the future in Carolina after the Panthers traded up to the #1 pick. Reich had success in Indianapolis before things unraveled last year, and he has a chance to lead a quick turnaround if the Panthers get the right quarterback and nail a few other picks. A weak NFC South changes their timeline and gives the team a chance to contend for the playoffs this season.
2021: down #39 to #52 to #59, up in 3rd and down in 3rd
2022: up from 4th to 3rd
Carolina has been active in two drafts under Fitterer, and the team has continued that trend already by trading into the top spot. Carolina’s draft capital is compromised this year and next after the big move, but the team still has the #39 pick, and Fitterer said he is willing to move down the board and make the big trade to assume control at the top of the draft rather than lock in at #1.
Possible trade spots: Moving down from #1 to #2 seems possible if Carolina doesn’t have a steadfast top prospect or if they are confident Houston would take a different player (CJ Stroud to Carolina and Bryce Young to Houston are currently the popular matches no matter who is picking first). Moving down any further seems unlikely, as going to #4 with the Colts would risk the Panthers missing out on their top three targets, a disaster for a team that gave away so much.
Movement is more likely to come from their 2nd round pick, which is, coincidentally, the same number they traded down from twice in 2021. Don’t be surprised to see Carolina take a passer at #1 or #2, then trade down in a series of moves to replenish their draft stock.
New Orleans Saints
GM: Mickey Loomis, hired in 2002
Coach: Dennis Allen, hired in February 2022
Loomis started with the Saints in 2000 before becoming the GM, and he has run the team for over two decades. During that time, the team has had extended success, including a Super Bowl victory. The departures of quarterback Drew Brees and coach Sean Payton over several offseasons have possibly put the team in a position to fall off a cliff, but they keep trying to compete in a suddenly weak NFC South.
2018: up #27 to #14
2019: up in 2nd
2020: up in 3rd, up from 4th to 3rd
2021: up in 3rd
2022: up #16 to #11
The Saints are always active, usually trading up and targeting players. The team was without a 1st round pick until Payton agreed to go to Denver, so the Saints are now in a position to trade up again to grab a player they like.
Possible trade spots: I see this as one of the most interesting teams to follow later in round 1. History shows they like to spend money and trade up, even when conventional wisdom says otherwise, so why would we expect the Saints to trade down or sit tight? A move anywhere after #20 seems plausible to me. The Saints are being linked to defensive linemen, which makes sense after losing multiple players to free agency, including previous 1st rounder Marcus Davenport (whom the team traded up to draft in 2018). New Orleans loves putting high draft picks into the offensive line, and a left guard would make sense as veteran Andrus Peat has struggled with consistency and injuries lately.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
GM: Jason Licht, hired in January 2014
Coach: Todd Bowles, hired in March 2022
The Bucs mortgaged the future to chase Super Bowl trophies with Tom Brady, and they were rewarded with one in 2020. The team will pay the price now, as they shed players and salaries while looking to the future. They will still look to create value and add young talent in the draft, however, and their recent past shows a clear pattern:
2018: down #7 to #12, down in 2nd
2019: down in 3rd
2020: up #14 to #13
2022: down #27 to #33, up in 2nd
A history of moving down in the early rounds bolds well for Tampa Bay as they enter a rebuild. More draft picks could be added as teams look to trade for veterans, with Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin possibilities to be gone by the end of the draft, especially when teams find out they missed out on their Day 1/early Day 2 targets. This team would be wise to follow their conservative approach and add players and future picks to their roster.
Possible trade spots: Choosing #19 isn’t horrible, but it’s out of line with the Bucs’ record, as five teams picking ahead of them had as many or more wins as Tampa Bay. One last division title sent out Tom Brady on a somewhat high note (relatively speaking), but it hurts the Bucs moving forward. Trading with anyone looking to snag a corner who might be left toward the end of a run is a likely outcome.
