There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Commanders.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a current roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Dallas Cowboys
GM: Jerry Jones bought the team in February 1989
Coach: Mike McCarthy, hired in January 2020
Jerry continues to run operations for the Cowboys, for better and worse, and he will decide with some form of input from his son and others. Dallas has a knack for making a splash with their draft picks, partly due to their overbearing status as a team (like Knicks fans booing every draft pick made since Patrick Ewing). The team is positioned to compete for a Super Bowl with its current roster. It will look to solidify its team with young talent, especially as stalwarts leave the team (running back Ezekiel Elliott) and become less effective (offensive tackle Tyron Smith).
2021: down #10 to #12
The Cowboys don’t trade much early in the draft, but they often target players at premium positions and/or positions of need, like the offensive line. Their strong front line has helped anchor a consistently good offense while high picks like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs prop up the defense.
Possible trade spots: Without much movement in the recent past, the Cowboys will likely stay at their position at #26. Pash rushers and pass catchers have been linked to Dallas in the draft, so a move ahead of the teams near them looking for the possible receiver or tight end help would make sense. Dalton Schultz left in free agency, but this is considered a good tight-end class. Trading for Brandin Cooks likely takes them out of the early receiver game. Keep an eye on the offensive line, as the team loves investing high picks up front.
New York Giants
GM: Joe Schoen, hired in January 2022
Coach: Brian Daboll, hired in January 2022
The Giants had a surprisingly successful 2022 season after bringing in a new coach and GM, and they now look to build with the pieces that were in place, namely quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley. The team has young talent along the offensive and defensive lines, so adding more impact players and filling holes will be the continued goal of the team in the draft.
2022: down #36 to #38 to #43
New York has a new brain trust, but their former bosses in Buffalo are an active team that targets players and isn’t afraid to move up or down the board. The Giants were thought to be in a rebuild heading into last year, so trading down twice in the 2nd round made sense. After a playoff victory and growth from Jones, the Giants might reverse course more like the Bills and find their stars.
Possible trade spots: New York re-signed several receivers and traded for tight end Darren Waller, but there is still a hole a wide receiver that could be filled with a top option in the draft. The Chargers, Ravens, Vikings, and Jaguars pick directly before the Giants and could use receiver help, so moving up ahead of those teams would allow New York their pick of a pass catcher, especially if a WR1 is on the board.
If the Giants want to trade down like last season, they could look to the Bills (#27), Saints (#29), and Chiefs (#31) as aggressive teams at the end of the 1st round, possibly looking to trade up. As the Giants did last year, trading down on Days 2 and 3 is an easy way to add late value in the draft.
Philadelphia Eagles
GM: Howie Roseman, hired in January 2010
Coach: Nick Sirianni, hired in January 2021
Roseman spent a decade with the Eagles before being promoted to GM. They have had varying levels of success over that time, winning a Super Bowl and making the final game again last year with one of the complete rosters in the league. Philadelphia is in a position to contend for a long time, especially having seemingly found their answer at quarterback.
2018: down then up in 2nd #32 to #52 to #49
2019: up #25 to #22
2021: down then up #6 to #12 to #10
2022: up #15 to #13
The Eagles are usually active trading during the draft and sit in a good position to move around the board with two 1st round picks (#10 and #30). They lost key defensive pieces and are about to pay quarterback Jalen Hurts, so adding young talent on cheaper contracts will be key if Philly wants to continue building their strong roster.
Possible trade spots: I love the idea of a team perpetually having two 1st round picks and concocting trades every year to ensure their haul continues. The Eagles can move up or down the board depending on the players they want to target, but a trade down from #10 would net a premium pick (possibly a future 1st rounder) and allow the Eagles to continue building their young talent.
Any number of teams could be looking to move up and grab a top player who slips to the end of the top 10, or their #30 pick would allow a team to trade up to secure the fifth-year option while the Eagles keep accumulating value and high draft picks (either this year or next). Philadelphia will add talented players, and history says they will not sit still while doing it.
Washington Commanders
GM: Martin Mayhew, hired in January 2021
Coach: Ron Rivera, hired in January 2020
The Commanders are stuck in the middle right now, sporting talented players on both sides of the roster but having no concrete plan at quarterback. Second-year passer Sam Howell will compete with free agent signing Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and the competition winner will carry Washington as far as they can go. Adding an impact passer ready to play this year seems unlikely unless the team can target a player on Day 2 or 3 (like Tennessee’s Malik Hooker) and have him break out.
2022: down #11 to #16
Washington moved down last year and still came away with an impact rookie in receiver Jahan Dotson, so Mayhew could be incentivized to try the trick again. Cornerback and offensive tackle have been positions linked to the Commanders. Still, they did work on the offensive line in free agency, causing recent reports to focus more on the defensive backfield.
Possible trade spots: The number of 1st round corners available has teams excited, but a team trading back must be careful not to go too far and miss out on all their targets. The Steelers and Lions pick right after the Commanders and have been linked to corner help, so trading back is a major risk if Washington covets that position. The number of corners drafted in the first 15 picks will probably inform and influence their decisions as the draft develops.
