There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a current roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Denver Broncos
GM: George Paton, hired in January 2021
Coach: Sean Payton, hired in February 2023
The Broncos have sent away high Draft picks the last two years for Russell Wilson and Payton, so the team will surely hope to see positive results sooner rather than later. However, the missing draft capital means they must hope for internal development and hit on lower picks. Denver has set themselves up well to acquire extra picks the last two years by trading down on Day 2 (with a move up the board mixed in for running back Javonte Williams).
2021: up in 2nd, down in 3rd
2022: down in 3rd, down from 3rd to 5th
Denver has two 3rd round picks (#67 and #68 early in the round) and only a single 4th, 5th, and 6th after that. The pattern of trading down the last two drafts would make sense again this year as the team is short on picks and still owes New Orleans their 2nd rounder next year while receiving the Saints’ 3rd.
Possible trade spots: Trades later in the Draft are hard, if not impossible, to predict but owning the fourth and fifth picks of the 3rd round gives Denver a chance to trade at least one and recoup more value later in the Draft. The contract for Wilson means more cheap contracts would be welcomed.
Kansas City Chiefs
GM: Brett Veach, hired in July 2017
Coach: Andy Reid, hired in January 2013
The Chiefs continue their streak of competitive seasons with Reid and Patrick Mahomes the faces of the franchise, but the team has regularly brought in impact players as the roster continues the churn. Hitting on those additions, especially in the Draft, will be the key to continual contender status and Mahomes’s health.
2018: up in 2nd and 3rd
2019: up in 2nd
2022: up 29 to #21, down in 2nd
The Chiefs have consistently moved up in the Draft, and their standing at the end of the first two rounds could make them antsy and looking for a spot to trade up. A team with relatively few holes can target specific players to fill those voids in a way that most teams can’t.
Possible trade spot: The Ravens and Vikings sit nine and eight spots ahead of the Chiefs, respectively, and both teams have shown a propensity to trade down under their current leadership. Kansas City has been linked to defensive line help in many mocks, and they could move up if they see a player they like slipping. A receiver the Chiefs think can be a WR1 could also be a target, as the team traded Tyreke Hill last year and lost Mecole Hardman and partial Hill-replacement Juju Smith Schuster this offseason. The Vikings, Jaguars, Giants, Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals pick in order from #23 to #28 and could all be looking for pass-catching help.
Las Vegas Raiders
GM: Dave Ziegler, hired in January 2022
Coach: Josh McDaniels, hired in January 2022
The first Draft under Ziegler and McDaniels lacked high-end Draft picks because of the trade for Davante Adams, stripping the team of their 1st and 2nd round picks. The team was meant to be a contender, but they took a step back in 2022 and have lost talent this off-season. In addition, having to target McDaniels’ other Patriots connection (Jimmy Garoppolo, not Tom Brady) lowers the ceiling on this team.
2022: down in 3rd
Last year’s Draft was uneventful early, but they did make a small trade down in the 3rd round. Coming from New England, the book on the Las Vegas boss would seem to point to trading down, but the Patriots like to trade both up and down while always being active. The Raiders didn’t disappoint last year and could look for more movement a year later.
Possible trade spots: The #7 slot is a good position to trade down from, so Las Vegas could take that approach. They have been linked to many of the top defensive players in the Draft, especially cornerbacks, and would benefit from quarterbacks and offensive tackles being drafted early. They could trade down with a team like Houston or the Jets and still end up with a great cornerback.
Los Angeles Chargers
GM: Tom Telesco, hired in January 2013
Coach: Brandon Staley, hired in January 2021
The Chargers are an ascending team with a young star quarterback and impressive players on both sides of the football. Their playoff appearance this season was cut short after an epic collapse against the Jaguars, but the Chargers probably feel good about where they stand. Continuing to add talent through the Draft will help the Chargers become consistent contenders for the division with Kansas City.
2020: up 37 to #23
With only one trade early in the Draft over the last five years, the Chargers are one of the quieter teams regarding draft-day trades. Their one move was a major move up the board into the 1st round in 2020 targeting linebacker Kenneth Murray, Jr. Murray has struggled at times, and, like the Steelers, the Chargers may be scared off by their big splash not working out as the team surrendered their 2nd and 3rd round picks that year.
Possible trade spots: A big trade seems unlikely, and the Chargers will probably choose their #21 slot. Targeting a star cornerback or pass catcher could loosen the team for a slight trade-up, but this seems like a poor place to project a trade.
