There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a current roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Houston Texans
GM: Nick Caserio, hired in January 2021
Coach: DeMeco Ryans, hired in January 2023
The Texans are in a rebuild, but they have exciting pieces already on the roster and are expected to come early in the Draft (including next year’s 1st and 4th-round picks from the Browns from the Deshaun Watson trade). A new coach is already in place, and a new quarterback seems guaranteed to join him at the top of the Draft. In addition, the AFC South is weak, so the Texans could be able to contend for the playoffs within a season or two if things break right.
2021: up in 3rd
2022: down 13 to #15, up from 3rd to 2nd, up in 3rd
Houston’s rebuild is only as good as the players they get, but trading up three times in the first three rounds over 2021-22 involves giving up Draft picks for a team near the bottom of the league in talent for several years. Their trade down in the 1st round in 2022 resulted in drafting guard Kenyon Green, a player projected to be a solid starter, but one who plays a non-premium position, as he was drafted with no intention of trying tackle. Houston seems like they could get more value out of the Draft.
Possible trade spots: The Texans have plenty of options sitting with the #2 and #12 picks in this year’s Draft. Trading up from #2 to #1 to get their choice of quarterback is a move that was projected when Chicago held the pick but still stands with Carolina, saying they are open to moving down the board. The 12th pick will come with available players all over the defense and at pass catcher, so Houston could move up to get their guy. A more analytically inclined team, like the Eagles at #10, could move down if Houston looks to pounce. The Texans could make a small move down from #12 with an aggressive team like the Packers at #15, much like they did last year, but their usual move has been to trade up.
Indianapolis Colts
GM: Chris Ballard, hired in January 2017
Coach: Shane Steichen, hired in February 2023
The Colts looked to be ascending for a few years with young talent on both sides of the ball, but their struggles to find consistent quarterback play contributed to disappointing results and bottoming out in 2022. A new coach and quarterback will be in town, as the Colts are expected to select one of the top young passers early in the Draft. They have been content to trade down in the past and take the best player available, so a surprise in the Draft is possible also, with Indi handing the reigns to newly signed Gardner Minshew, though that seems unlikely.
2018: down 3 to #6 before the draft, down in 2nd, up in 3rd
2019: down from 26 to #46 to #49
2020: up in 2nd, down in 3rd
2022: down in 2nd, up from 5th to 3rd
Indianapolis is active in the Draft, often with the team looking to move down, with a few exceptions. Ballard has been accused of being too conservative, saving cap space rather than signing high-profile free agents, and the early Draft follows that pattern.
Possible trade spots: The Colts’ first pick, #4 overall, would be a prime spot to trade back if the team wasn’t likely to target a quarterback. They are tied to a possible move up to #3 to secure the third passer off the board before they are leap-frogged, but it would run counter to what the team has chosen chiefly to do. However, the allure of a young quarterback could be enough to change their thinking in the 1st round. In addition, Indianapolis traded their early-3rd rounder to Denver in a previous deal, so they could look to trade back from #35 to add another pick in the 3rd or 4th (they do have #79 later in the 3rd and their early 4th and 5th rounders).
Jacksonville Jaguars
GM: Trent Baalke, hired in November 2020
Coach: Doug Pederson, hired in February 2022
Baalke was hired by the team early in 2020 and took over as GM when David Caldwell was fired during the season. His first Draft in charge was in 2021, and the Jags have been quiet early in the Draft over those two seasons. However, more moves up the board could be coming for Jacksonville, with the team coming off a playoff victory and looking to ascend.
2022: up 33 to #27
One trade-up doesn’t mean a lot, but the Jaguars now look like the best team in the division and have a reason to make bold moves and go for it. In addition, Jacksonville has nine picks in the Draft, giving them ammunition to move around if they choose.
Possible trade spots: Jacksonville lost tackle Jawaan Taylor to a large contract in Kansas City, so they have an opening on the offensive line and players at the position projected to be drafted in their range. Tampa Bay and the Chargers sit several picks ahead of the Jags at #24, needing tackle help, and the offensive line-loving Cowboys are at #26 and could look to make a move of their own. The Jaguars could move up to protect Trevor Lawrence or add a pass catcher for him at receiver or tight end, as a surplus of options at those positions will be available in the mid-to-late 1st round and into the 2nd.
Tennessee Titans
GM: Ran Carthon, hired in January 2023
Coach: Mike Vrabel, hired in January 2018
Carthon was hired from the San Francisco 49ers to run the Titans, and it remains to be seen if he will follow his former bosses during his first Draft in charge. The Titans are a relatively stable franchise, with a small run of recent success and Vrabel being seen as one of the better coaches in the league. However, the team is on the downswing, and a new GM not tied to any pieces, like aging quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry, could look to clean house more than retool around those players.
No previous draft moves
Carthon can pave his path in the Draft and with this team. Unfortunately, San Francisco doesn’t have strong patterns through the last five years of the Draft, so predicting Carthon’s moves is a guessing game.
Possible trade spots: Offensive line help has often been mocked to Tennessee, so the Titans at #11 could trade ahead of teams like Las Vegas, Chicago, and Philadelphia to secure the top tackle. A trade-down could make more sense as the team looks to be heading down rather than up. Next year we will better understand what to expect from the Titans’ new boss.
