There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Steelers.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a current roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Baltimore Ravens
GM: Eric DeCosta, hired in January 2019
Coach: John Harbaugh, hired in January 2008
DeCosta served under former longtime GM Ozzie Newsome before assuming the role in 2019. He has been with the organization since starting as an intern during their first season in Baltimore in 1996. Although he didn’t begin until 2019, looking at the 2018 draft can give us a look at the transition and if anything changed early in the Draft. The results remain similar, as DeCosta has followed the Raven way.
2018: down 16 to #22 to #25, up 52 to #32 for Lamar Jackson, down twice in 3rd
2019: down 22 to #25, up in 3rd
2020: down from 2nd to 3rd
2022: down 23 to #25
Baltimore is happy to move down early in the Draft and grab extra picks with a few exceptions (including moving up 20 spots to grab Lamar Jackson at the end of Round 1 in 2018). There are a lot of good players in every Draft, and getting a chance to acquire as many as possible is a recipe for finding impact talent. The Ravens take advantage of extra picks and any other team through trade downs and compensatory picks.
Possible Trade Spots: The Ravens sit at #22 with a chance to trade back later in the 1st round or early 2nd as teams identify targets that fall in the Draft. Aggressive teams like the Saints and Chiefs sit seven and nine spots behind them, respectively, and could look to move up, along with the Bills at #27.
Cincinnati Bengals
Director of Player Personnel: Duke Tobin, hired in 1999
Coach: Zac Taylor, hired in February 2019
The Bengals don’t have an official GM, but Tobin has been running drafts with the powers that rule the team for several years. Cincinnati has followed a similar draft pattern no matter who owns what title, so looking at their long-term history in the Draft is useful.
2018: down 12 to #21 from Bills, down in 2nd
2019: down in 2nd
2021: down in 2nd
2022: up in 2nd
Cincinnati traded down in the 2nd round three out of four years before moving up last year, and the team seems content to move down and accumulate picks like their rivals in Baltimore. That trend will likely continue as the Bengals get set to pay stars like Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and need cost-controlled younger players.
Possible trade spots: At the end of the 1st round, teams will be looking to move up and gain the fifth-year option on their pick, allowing the Bengals to slide down to the 2nd and pick up extra selections. The Rams are eight picks behind Cincinnati at #36 and could look to move up and secure the extra year after not having a 1st round pick since Jared Goff in 2016 (although that would be very off-brand for the Rams, who prefer to trade down). If the Bengals hold onto their 1st rounder for the same reason, they own the 60th pick and could trade back in the 2nd round again to any number of teams, including Denver, whose first picks are back-to-back selections early in the 3rd.
Cleveland Browns
GM: Andrew Berry, hired in January 2020
Coach: Kevin Stefanski, hired in January 2020
The Browns will miss high Draft picks because of the trade for quarterback Deshaun Watson. The results were putrid in the first year as Watson was suspended 11 games and looked like a shell of his former self upon return. Cleveland hopes Watson can turn around his play and the team’s fortunes, but the struggles have already cost them the #12 pick in this Draft.
2020: down in 2nd and 3rd
2021: up in 2nd
2022: down from 2nd to 3rd #44 to #68
Cleveland has preferred trading down since Berry took over, and they again don’t have a 1st round pick because of the Watson trade. Next year Cleveland is without their 1st and 4th rounders, so nailing later Draft picks will be necessary for the Browns to add young talent. Trading down from their current draft slots is a way to bring in quantity, hoping to find quality through the Draft.
Possible trade spots: The 42nd and 98th picks in the 2nd and 3rd would be spots to trade down, but Cleveland already has extra 4th and 5th rounders. They might look to draft their preferred players rather than add more mid-to-late-round picks. Picking up more late selections is still a smart option, though, as Watson’s contract will force the Browns to cut costs in other places on the roster.
Pittsburgh Steelers
GM: Omar Khan, hired in May 2022
Coach: Mike Tomlin, hired in January 2007
Like their division rivals in Baltimore and Cincinnati, the Steelers hired from within when naming Khan their GM in 2022. However, he has been part of the organization for years and will likely follow the team’s usual philosophy in the Draft. Pittsburgh got their quarterback in the 1st round last year and added a few other impact players, especially receiver George Pickens. They will be looking to do more of the same this year and try to compete in a strong division top-to-bottom.
2018: up in 3rd
2019: up from #20 to #10
Pittsburgh has been relatively quiet on the trade front early in the Draft, but their most recent trades have involved moving up. The trade made in 2019 could be enough to scare the Steelers away as they gave up #20 and #52 that year and a 3rd rounder in 2020 to target linebacker Devin Bush. While Bush showed flashes, Pittsburgh let him leave in free agency this year, and he signed a relatively cheap deal with Seattle. But, of course, the Steelers would never make that same move knowing the outcome.
Possible trade spots: A trade early in the Draft seems unlikely based on recent seasons, but the Steelers could move up for a cornerback if a run starts in the 1st round. Many Mock Drafts have Pittsburgh targeting a corner after losing Cameron Sutton to the Lions, and at #17, they could be sitting with the top three options at the position already off the board. Moving up a few spots would secure a top option in the defensive backfield.
