I will look at offseason moves, recent draft trends/facts, and what each team is likely and unlikely to do, especially early in the Draft. Not all off-season moves will be included, but the players that will inform these decisions are mentioned.
Teams generally fill most of their holes before the NFL Draft. Still, they will inevitably look for rookies to play roles early and maybe even step into the starting lineup immediately. Mock drafts are a losing prospect due to the number of players at each position and how teams will rank players differently, so I prefer looking at what teams have done in the offseason and in previous drafts to predict what they might do this year.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Moves: Bringing in head coach Sean Payton could be the team’s most impactful move of the offseason, but it cost them the 29th pick in the Draft they acquired from Mami for Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. Denver brought in starters at several positions, most notably on the offensive line with right tackle Mike McGlinchey (from San Francisco) and left guard Ben Powers (Tennessee). Defensive lineman Zach Allen was signed away from Arizona, a move lauded by many, but they lost fellow d-tackle Dre’Mont Jones to Seattle, which may be more impactful for the acquiring team.
Recent drafts: The 2022 and 2023 Drafts were and are compromised by moves for quarterback Russell Wilson (along with acquiring Payton and other deals), so Denver will have to work with high picks missing on the roster. Premium picks have been successful recently, with receiver Jerry Jeudy and cornerback Patrick Surtain II as notable examples. Still, the team must find value later in the Draft to support the roster.
Unlikely move/pick: Trading up in the Draft. The two drafts under general manager George Patton have seen the team trade down more than up, and that is likely again this year. The Broncos have two 3rd round picks and one each in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds, so they don’t have extra ammunition to trade up and target players early. Don’t look for Denver to move into the 1st or 2nd round at any point if it doesn’t involve one of their veterans.
Likely move/pick: Trading one of their receivers. The Broncos’ pass catchers are a strength, and the team is so low on draft capital that they have been rumored to be listening to trade offers for Jeudy and fellow wideout Courtland Sutton. Once teams see they missed their draft targets on Day 1, someone might be willing to relinquish a 2nd rounder to pick up one of Denver’s receivers.
Kansas City Chiefs
Moves: Signing Jawaan Taylor to a big contract to play left tackle while letting Orlando Brown, Jr., leave is a risky move, especially after Brown signed a smaller contract by both per-year dollars and guaranteed money in Cincinnati. Taylor played on the right side for Jacksonville, so the Chiefs are betting he can make the transition without issue. Elsewhere, the team lost talent (receivers Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman). Still, they did sign a few defensive starters, including edge player Charles Omenihu (from Houston), linebacker Drue Tranquill (Chargers), and safety Mike Edwards (Tampa Bay).
Recent drafts: Kansas City generally drafts well and brings in impact players. The team doesn’t have a clear pattern or strategy with the players they draft, as they target all positions, but they have brought in more defensive pieces lately, an intelligent move when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can prop up the offense. Late-round picks haven’t generally turned into much recently until last year’s 7th-round pick of running back Isaiah Pacheco, who broke out as a rookie.
Unlikely move/pick: Wasting a pick. This is a harsh way to put it, but Kansas City surely wishes they had back their 2020 1st rounder, which they spent on running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs had just won the Super Bowl, and Edwards-Helaire was seen as a luxury pick that would push the offense to historic heights. Instead, he set all of his (to-date) career highs as a rookie while helping the team return to the Super Bowl, but Tampa Bay roundly battered them as the offensive line showed its holes and lack of depth. Edwards-Helaire has been anonymous and injured since. Teams are much better off trying to find quality players at premium positions and filling other holes, like running back, later. As a 7th rounder overtaking Edwards-Helaire, Pacheco is the perfect microcosm of the running back landscape.
Likely move/pick: Trading up in the 1st round. The Chiefs have shown a willingness to trade up and target specific players, and their complete roster will allow them to do the same this year. They have been linked to passing rushers in many mock drafts, but the right side of the offensive line could be upgraded too. Guard Trey Smith is a 6th-round pick from 2021, and tackle Lucas Niang is a 3rd-rounder from 2020 (who the team likes at his position). Multiple options at right tackle are expected to come off the board in the mid-to-late 1st round, and the team would be wise to consider adding a superior option and creating extra depth. If tackles start getting picked in the 20s, the Chiefs might be actively trading up to secure a preferred option there or at another position.
Las Vegas Raiders
Moves: Vegas has been active in the offseason, and the big addition was quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. He has a long injury history, and his winning ways have usually been attributed to the team more than his play. Still, Jimmy G offers a stable presence after longtime starter Derek Carr was released. There have been a lot of smaller moves both in and out. Still, the most significant changes involved trading tight end Darren Waller to the Giants, signing receiver Jakobi Meyers from the Patriots, and signing safety Marcus Epps from the Eagles.
Recent drafts: Uff. I’m a Raiders fan, and it’s tough to go back and look at the last half-decade of picks. Clelin Ferrell, Johnathan Abrams, Henry Ruggs III, Damon Arnette, Alex Leatherwood: that’s a list of five 1st round picks since 2019 that are no longer on the team. The sixth, running back Josh Jacobs, just had his best (and healthiest) season right before free agency, and the team franchised him while working on a long-term deal, which sounds great, but they are now looking to pay a running back with a history of injuries and middling production. Vegas didn’t have a 1st or 2nd round pick last year because of the trade for Davante Adams, so high picks are absent from the roster.
Unlikely move/pick: Adding skill players early. Waller is a great player when healthy, but he has played only two full seasons and missed 17 games over the last two years. Losing him created a hole, but Vegas made meaningful additions at the position in Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard. In addition, recent moves have solidified receiver and running back, so the Raiders likely won’t look to add a skill player before Day 3.
Likely move/pick: Picking one of the top defenders, possibly after trading back. With a brain trust from New England, Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels wouldn’t surprise by trading down. Drafting a quarterback is possible even after signing Garappolo. Still, they look more likely to reload than make a big splash, and Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez has been mocked heavily by the Raiders at #7 if they stay. Working to build up a lackluster defense through any position is a smart way forward for Las Vegas.
The team is tied for the league lead with 12 draft picks and comes from an active trading hub, so nothing should be ruled out. However, the lack of other options at quarterback means the team will likely add a passer, even if it’s lower in the Draft.
Los Angeles Chargers
Moves: The Chargers mostly held tight in free agency, losing linebacker Tranquill to Kansas City before replacing him with Vikings veteran Eric Kendricks. Guard Matt Feiler, who played almost every snap last year, was released, leaving a large void along the offensive line.
Recent drafts: Los Angeles has hammered the offensive line in recent years, using 1st rounders on guard Zion Johnson last year and left tackle Rashawn Slater in 2021. Trey Pipkins III was taken in the 3rd round in 2019 and re-signed in the offseason to play right tackle. Other picks have been hit and miss, but the Chargers have brought in impact players on both sides of the ball, like quarterback Justin Herbert and defensive backs Derwin James and Asante Samuel, Jr.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting defense in the 1st round. The Chargers have found great defensive players early in the Draft, but the team has impact players at all three levels (with a need to fill the middle of the d-line). They will likely find beef up front, but that will come later in the Draft. In addition, Los Angeles has been linked to the offensive line, running back, and wide receiver early.
Likely move/pick: The dreaded 1st round running back. As much as I hate 1st round running backs, Bijan Robinson from Texas is seen as far-and-away the best player at the position and projected to go early. Austin Ekeler has been great the last few years, but his contract is coming up at the end of the year, and the Chargers haven’t seemed eager to hand him a big extension. Ekeler is lauded as a dual-threat back, and Robinson is seen similarly. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Los Angeles draft Robinson in the 1st round, then trade Ekeler (who requested a trade and was given permission to seek one earlier in the offseason). The huge hole at guard could be filled with a 1st round pick or maybe a tackle coming in to slide Pipkins inside to guard.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Moves: Arizona came into last season as a hot pick for the playoffs, but things fell apart, culminating in quarterback Kyler Murray getting hurt and the team moving on from their coach and GM. They now have a new regime in town and holes across the roster, and they let most of their free agents leave, notably defensive lineman Zach Allen who went to the Broncos. As a result, no major additions were made, although rotational players and low-level spot starters were added.
Recent drafts: Arizona has made 16 6th and 7th round picks since 2019, showing the team liked bringing in several players hoping to find some quality under the previous front office. Those players have not been impressed for the most part, which is a big part of why they lack depth at so many positions. The team has two 6th-rounders this year, but no 7th, and it remains to be seen if new general manager Monti Ossenfort will acquire more low picks in his first Draft or look for more premium picks to add higher-level talent.
Unlikely move/pick: Keeping everyone. While the team lacks talent, stars, and valuable veterans are still on the roster who don’t fit the current timeline. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is aging and has been rumored to be on the trade block, and a team like the Giants needing a top receiver might be tempted to give up their 1st rounder or another high pick if they miss their targets at the position. A surplus of talent exists at linebacker after the team signed Kyzir White from the Eagles, so a team with a need at that position, like Buffalo, could come calling. Names like tight end Zach Ertz and safety Budda Baker would also make sense for contending teams.
Likely move/pick: Trading down from #3. With the Cardinals needing help at so many positions and teams looking to secure a quarterback at the top of the Draft, the obvious move is for the team to trade down and acquire extra assets, including a possible future 1st rounder or multiple Day 2 picks. The team will still be able to add a premium defensive talent after trading down, and they will reap the benefits in future seasons when Murray returns healthy. Even dropping to #4 so the Colts can select a passer would add at least one premium pick.
Los Angeles Rams
Moves: The Rams spent years going all-in and were rewarded with a Super Bowl trophy after the 2021 season. The debt would have to be paid at some point, and it looks like this season might be the time after a disappointing 2022. Jalen Ramsey was traded to the Dolphins for a 3rd round pick three-and-a-half years after the Rams acquired him for two 1st rounders and a 4th. Players outside the organization were ignored in free agency as the team preferred to recoup compensatory draft picks. None of their losses figure to earn them anything big next year, but the collective losses could get them a few late picks, depending on how things play out.
Recent drafts: LA has a reputation for ignoring the Draft because they trade 1st rounders so often, but the team loves mid- and late-round picks, as they have added at least seven players in the 3rd round or later every year since 2017. The Rams haven’t made a 1st round pick since Jared Goff in 2016 and surely miss that high capital after so many years, but they have their strategy that has resulted in success.
Unlikely move/pick: Walking out of the Draft without a quarterback. Matthew Stafford is the only quarterback on the roster right now after Baker Mayfield left for Tampa Bay, so the Rams will likely add to the quarterback room somewhere in the Draft. This is more likely to be a developmental prospect than an instant starter, but depth at the position is a glaring need, especially with Stafford facing injuries last year. Again, the Rams haven’t drafted a quarterback since Goff in 2016.
Likely move/pick: Trading down. The team’s first pick is at #36, higher than any they have made since Goff. In 2019, the team traded down three times from #31 to end up at #61, and I could see a similar strategy this year, with #36 turning into more picks. The Rams already have 11 selections, though; eight are in the 5th round or later. So trading down to pick up more capital might not be as appealing with that draft haul in hand, but the team could pick up higher picks next year with their moves.
San Francisco 49ers
Moves: San Francisco has a mostly set roster, but quarterback is the unsettled spot that could hold them back. Trey Lance was the #3 pick in 2021 and expected to take over last year, but he was lost for the year early in Week 2. Jimmy Garappolo played well until getting injured himself, then 7th-round rookie Brock Purdy stepped in and took the team to the NFC Championship game before suffering his injury early, dooming the team’s chances. After that, Sam Darnold was brought in, meaning San Fran could go several different ways at the position. After last year, the 49ers might just be grabbing all available quarterbacks in case of emergency.
Elsewhere, defensive lineman Javon Hargrave was brought in from Philadelphia to make an excellent unit even better in one of the biggest moves of free agency. That could be the most impactful off-season signing determining the Super Bowl race. The deeper parts of the roster saw a lot of churn, but the main pieces are still in place.
Recent drafts: The 49ers have consistently added valuable players in the Draft, but the last few years leave more to be desired based on early results. Part of that is the roster being stocked at most positions; rookies have difficulty getting on the field when the veterans are all playing well. However, several players will be able to show they belong this season, as others were allowed to leave in free agency.
Unlikely move/pick: Staying at their draft positions. San Fran has been one of the most active teams trading in the Draft over the last few years, and they have 11 picks, including a league-high seven compensatory picks. They don’t currently select until the end of the 3rd round at #99, so the team could look to move up for a player earlier in the 3rd or even in the 2nd round. The right side of the offensive line could use an upgrade, so trading up for a player who can start there from day one wouldn’t be a surprise.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a kicker. It’s not the most exciting position, but the 49ers have a stacked roster without many holes. They will add a lot of depth, especially on the defense, but the kicker is a mystery for the first time in years as veteran Robbie Gould has said he will head elsewhere. The team traded for Zane Gonzalez, but he missed all of 2022 with an injury and has been inconsistent sometimes. With so many late-round picks, the team can target a kicker any time on Day 3 and hope for a long-term solution.
Seattle Seahawks
Moves: Seattle looked like they might be headed for a rebuild, but a great 2022 Draft and a breakout season from Geno Smith changed the team’s outlook on the fly. They come into this year with an extra 1st round pick at #5 from trading Russell Wilson to the Broncos, along with their own choice at #20. Smith is back, but the contract leaves room for the team to move on after one year. Seattle signed impact players at all three defensive levels, with linemen Dre’Mont Jones (Denver) and Jarran Reed (Green Bay), linebackers Bobby Wagner (from the Rams in a reunion) and Devin Bush (Pittsburgh), and safety Julian Love (Giants).
Recent drafts: Seattle has some of the strangest drafts in the league. The team chose only three players in 2021, just two years after they began the Draft with four picks but ended up choosing 11 players thanks to trading down. The players have been hit-and-miss in the Draft, but 2022 was a home run. The Seahawks came away with starters at offensive tackles, running back, and cornerback while adding more depth at corner and pass rusher. Thanks to the Draft, Seattle has a valuable core of players and is loaded with picks to continue improving.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting an offensive tackle early. Charles Cross was drafted 9th overall last year and fit right into place at left tackle, filling the most important hole on the line. Abraham Lucas was a luckier pick, coming in the 3rd round and locking down the right tackle spot, giving Seattle the extreme luxury of having two good, young (and cheap) tackles. The interior offensive line could use work, maybe as early as the late 1st or 2nd round, but depth at tackle will probably wait until Day 3, thanks to the two young standouts.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a quarterback. The team likes Smith, but he is a veteran in the league and just had his first above-average season out of nowhere. Expecting him to maintain that efficiency and production could be a tall ask, and the team is in a position to draft high with Denver’s pick. Anthony Richardson from Florida is seen as the most tantalizing prospect in this class by some draftniks because of his amazing athletic ability but lack of polish and experience. Seattle can stay where they are or move up from #5 to #3 (if the Cardinals will trade within the division) and land Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis, who could also use a year to improve. Smith allows the team to make a move without rushing that player into game action for a season or two.
