I will look at offseason moves, recent draft trends/facts, and what each team is likely and unlikely to do, especially early in the Draft. Not all off-season moves will be included, but the players that will inform these decisions are mentioned.
Teams generally fill most of their holes before the NFL Draft. Still, they will inevitably look for rookies to play roles early and maybe even step into the starting lineup immediately. Mock drafts are a losing prospect due to the number of players at each position and how teams will rank players differently, so I prefer looking at what teams have done in the offseason and in previous drafts to predict what they might do this year.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Moves: Houston has been in a rebuild for several years, but there may be a light at the end of the tunnel as the team brings in a new coach and (probably) quarterback. Their moves this offseason have added stability to many positions and put veterans in place to support whichever quarterback ends up in Houston. Receiver Robert Woods, tight end Dalton Schultz, running back Devin Singletary, and guard Shaq Mason was brought in to start or play major roles on the offense. At the same time, safety Jimmy Ward, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, and others will do the same on defense.
Recent drafts: The Texans added a handful of starters last year, but that followed a few years of missing picks and weak returns. The roster has plenty of room for players at all positions due to their poor drafts and lack of impact signings, so having six picks in the top 104 (into the beginning of Round 4) lines the team up to make up for the missed players in previous years.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting an offensive lineman in Round 1. The offensive line is important for every young quarterback, but the Texans have done a good job building a competent line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil was just given an extension to become the highest-paid tackle in the league, while the guard next to him is Kenyon Green, a 1st round pick last year. Mason and 2019 1st rounder Tytus Howard is set to play guard and tackle, respectively, on the right side, while center Scott Quessenberry was re-signed after playing over 90% of the snaps last year. Center could be upgraded but expect that to wait until at least Day 2.
Likely move/pick: Being active trading in the draft. Houston will get a quarterback at #2 (unless they move to #1) and jump headfirst into their new era, and they have been actively trading in the draft in the two years under GM Nick Caserio (who came from New England). Other than that, the possibilities are endless for Houston, who enters the Draft tied for a league-high with 12 picks. The offense will be built up around their new QB while the defense adds youth, and you will hear from the Texans early and often during the Draft.
Indianapolis Colts
Moves: The Colts have mostly shed players during free agency, losing wide receiver Parris Campbell and linebacker Bobby Okereke to the Giants in free agency and trading cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys. Quarterback is a hole, but Indi did bring in Gardner Minshew, who could start or work as a backup. The Colts should be looking to add talent to all areas of the roster, as they have holes and lack depth at many positions.
Recent drafts: The Draft has been Indianapolis’s main source of talent acquisition. They have attacked positions of need on the offensive and defensive lines and found skill players on Day 2. Running back Jonathan Taylor, receivers Michael Pittman, Jr. and Alec Pierce, and tight end Jelani Woods have been selected in Rounds 2 or 3 over the last three Drafts, replenishing the team as past stars aged and moved on.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting an offensive lineman early. While many spots could use work, the Colts have spent high draft picks on the offensive line and skill positions over the past few years. Center Ryan Kelly and guard Quentin Nelson were picked in the 1st round, while tackles Braden Smith (2nd round) and Bernhard Raimann (3rd round) were brought in on Day 2 of their respective drafts. There is a hole at right guard, and the line could use depth, but Indianapolis has other holes to fill early in the draft and probably won’t look to the offensive line.
The team has been linked to a move up one spot to secure the third passer in the draft, but Indi usually prefers to trade down in the draft. Moving one spot for such an important position could change their thinking if they find a player they love.
Likely move/pick: Making a huge upgrade at quarterback. The Colts will walk away with a quarterback, but it might not be the one we think. The team will be in position to draft one of the top four options, but Lamar Jackson is still at an impasse with the Ravens, and Indianapolis has been one of the teams most linked to the quarterback. If they don’t draft a QB early, expect a move for Jackson to follow (if it doesn’t happen before the draft).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Moves: Jacksonville has stayed out of free agency, electing to bring back a few of their own guys and make minor transactions elsewhere. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor took a huge deal to switch to the left side for Kansas City, and pass rusher Arden Key left for Tennessee, a move many analysts saw as a key loss for the team (no pun intended). They did keep breakout tight end Evan Engram using the franchise tag, a move that could lead to a longer deal.
Recent drafts: The Jags have made a lot of picks recently, bringing in 28 players over the last three drafts. Those players have come at various positions, but Jacksonville is now transitioning from among the worst teams to a playoff contender and division favorite. Targeting players to fit specific holes may become a more normal occurrence, like last year when they traded up for a second 1st round pick to take linebacker Devin Lloyd.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a linebacker early. Speaking of Lloyd, the Jaguars have targeted defensive players high in the draft over the last few years and come away with a stacked linebacking core. Outside linebackers/pass rushers Josh Allen (#7 overall) and Travon Walker (#1) were both top-10 picks, and they are joined by inside linebackers Lloyd (1st rounder) and Foyesade Oluokun, who signed a big contract to come over from the Falcons in 2022. Depth picks are always possible, especially at pass rushers, but Jacksonville will probably look elsewhere early in the Draft.
Likely move/pick: Drafting one or more interior offensive linemen early. I initially thought right tackle would be an obvious target after Taylor left, but the team drafted Walker Little out of Stanford in the 2nd round in 2021, and it currently looks like he will get the first shot at the job. Little had hype as 1st rounder before falling, so excelling at the position wouldn’t be a surprise. Pass catchers have been mocked to the Jags often, but they signed receiver Christian Kirk to a huge deal last year and traded for Calvin Ridley, who returns from suspension.
The interior of the offensive line is set at right guard with Brandon Scherff, but left guard and center are currently manned by 4th and 3rd round picks, respectively, and teams usually can find good players late in the 1st round and into Day 2 at those positions. The Jags would seem to set up well there, sitting at #24 with the ability to fill a hole, even if it’s considered an overdraft. Targeting a premium position early is also a possibility.
Tennessee Titans
Moves: Tennessee brought in players, especially on the defensive side of the ball, to fill holes, but it seems like they lost more talent than they added. Veteran players like quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry are still around, meaning this team could look to compete in a weak division, but a look at their depth chart shows a lot of band-aids and holes. (Unrelated: after this exercise, the Titans are my new pick to experience the biggest downfall this year, from division contender to near the bottom of the league.)
Recent drafts: The Titans hired new general manager Ran Carthon from San Francisco, so recent drafts may not inform this year and the future, especially as the team might be heading toward the bottom of the division rather than the top. Conventional wisdom says new front office members aren’t tied to players from previous regimes, but coach Mike Vrabel is still around and may not like the idea of his successful teams being stripped down.
The Titans have made a lot of picks the last few years, bringing in 17 players, but the results have been mixed at best. Previous missed high picks, like tackle Isaiah Wilson in 2020, and middling players are part of the reason Tennessee may be looking to rebuild sooner rather than later.
Unlikely move/pick: Trading up to take a quarterback. Tennessee drafted quarterback Malik Willis in the 3rd round last year after he had hype to go in the 1st, but his limited action left the team questioning his future. Still, with he and Tannehill still on the roster, it would be a surprise if the team made a move up to secure a top quarterback in the Draft. The more likely outcome is playing the year out with one or both passers and re-assessing their standing next off-season. Giving up assets when the team is in limbo is a bad path toward staying relevant. Another mid-to-late round pick is possible.
Likely move/pick: Drafting an offensive lineman early. The offensive line has seen a lot of turnover in the last few years. Former starting tackle Tyler Lewan is gone after several injury-riddled years, along with center Ben Jones and guards Nate Davis and Dennis Daley (who played nearly 91% of the team’s snaps last year). Multiple spots along the line would be upgraded by bringing in a starter, and mock drafts have linked the team to those players. Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is popular because he can play all over the line. Still, any player early in the round (the Titans pick 11th) would upgrade the offense.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Moves: The Falcons were active in free agency after several years of losing players and fixing the salary cap. They added one of the top defenders available in safety, Jessie Bates III (from Cincinnati). They beefed up the defensive line with David Onyemata (New Orleans) and Calais Campbell (released by Baltimore). Maybe most importantly, they made moves to support second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who showed flashes as a rookie. Atlanta traded for tight end Jonnu Smith (New England) and signed receiver Mack Hollins (Las Vegas) while locking in the right side of their offensive line for the foreseeable future. The team just traded for cornerback Jeff Okudah from Detroit, a player who has struggled with consistency and injuries, but he also was the #3 overall pick only three years ago.
Recent drafts: Atlanta has found impact players early and built a core through the Draft. Their top running back, receiver, and tight end have been picked in the last two years along with Ridder, and 1st round picks litter the offensive line. The defense has a star in the 2020 1st-round cornerback A.J. Terrell.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a quarterback. Atlanta could look at one of the options high in the draft, but they would have to be sure that player would be a major upgrade on Ridder. The team signed Tyler Heinicke away from Washington, and he has acknowledged that he is coming in as a backup. Supporting the players in place and building the defense will be higher priorities than finding another passer, although late-round fliers are possible at any position.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a defensive lineman in the 1st round. There are holes on the interior of the offensive line, and the Falcons have shown a willingness to draft up front early, but the Falcons need young players on the defensive line, specifically rushing the passer. A guard or center is likely on Day 2 but look for Atlanta to grab a defensive lineman early, maybe after trading down. Mock drafts have linked multiple players to the Falcons at that position, but receiver is also seen as a possibility. The depth at pass catcher is thin, and several players will be available early, but after back-to-back 1st round tight end and receiver picks, expect the team to look toward defense.
Carolina Panthers
Moves: The biggest splash Carolina made was trading up to the #1 pick in the Draft to grab a quarterback. The player they choose is still questioned, but their future depends on his development. The team had to trade away receiver D.J. Moore. Still, they have made moves to support whoever their new passer is by signing running back Miles Sanders (Philadelphia), wide receivers D.J. Chark (Detroit) and Adam Thielen (released by Minnesota), and tight end Hayden Hurst (Cincinnati), along with a veteran backup in Andy Dalton (New Orleans). The defense was boosted by the signings of several likely starters, including safety Vonn Bell (Cincinnati) and defensive tackle Shy Tuttle (New Orleans).
Recent drafts: Since drafting Christian McCaffrey 8th overall in 2017, the Panthers have targeted premium positions early on the offensive and defensive lines and at receiver and cornerback. The team will likely follow suit with a quarterback at the top of this Draft. This strategy has produced stars in Moore and pass rusher Brian Burns, who the team elected to keep rather than send to the Rams last season for two 1st round picks.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting skill players before Day 3. The team used free agency to fill starting spots at the skill positions, so holes along the offensive line and depth on defense will likely be earlier targets. Depth and youth are still an issue and could be addressed late on the offense, but those will be more anonymous players from the college ranks.
Likely move/pick: Trading down. Carolina has only six picks heading into the Draft, but they are all in the 5th round or earlier. In 2021 the team traded down twice from the same #39 spot they sit at in the 2nd round this year, and doing something similar would help replenish lost draft picks (including next year’s 1st due to trading up to #1). General manager Scott Fitterer already said the team isn’t locked in at #1 and would consider movement, possibly down to #2, so Houston can have their pick of quarterback.
New Orleans Saints
Moves: New Orleans has been looking for stability at quarterback since Drew Brees left, and they found it by making the first major move of the offseason and signing Derek Carr after his release from Las Vegas. Take it from a Raiders fan: Carr is easy to love and will give everything for his team, but he is a level below the top passers in the league and needs a strong supporting cast, which Vegas didn’t feature often. The defense lost linemen Marcus Davenport, Shy Tuttle, and David Onyemata in free agency. The front is compromised, but the Saints have a solid team ready to compete for the division.
Recent drafts: The Saints are one of the most active teams in the league when it comes to trading up in the draft, and it has resulted in a lot of talent joining the team while also depleting their draft capital. New Orleans hasn’t brought in seven or more players in a draft since hitting that number in 2017 and 2018, and that has been a big reason they are perpetually against the cap. Cheap contracts from late picks provide depth that the Saints have given up in acquiring their choice of player. They have eight picks entering this Draft, but I expect them to use those to trade up rather than add players.
Unlikely move/pick: Adding a quarterback at any point. The Saints are hard to predict because they go against conventional wisdom. Cutting costs or trading down is common practice when teams lack resources, but New Orleans regularly restructures contracts and trades away picks. The only place the team is fully stocked is quarterback, where Jameis Winston returns to back up to Carr. Taysom Hill remains a gadget player.
Likely move/pick: Trading up from #30 and drafting a lineman. The Saints have traded up within the first three rounds for at least five straight years, and there is no reason to expect them to stay where they enter the Draft. The team’s own 1st rounder sits at #10 but belongs to Philadelphia after a trade lasts year, and their current pick came from the Broncos (by way of Miami and San Francisco, the original owner) when coach Sean Payton joined Denver. Sitting at the end of the round won’t do for a New Orleans team that hates to settle.
As mentioned above, the defensive line was compromised by losses in free agency, so many mock drafts expect the Saints to take a player along the defensive front early. That makes sense, but the team loves putting early picks into the offensive line, and left guard Andrus Peat has struggled and dealt with injuries the past few seasons. If the Saints do stay put, the interior offensive line could be a target, with several players projected to go in that range.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Moves: The Bucs shed talent this offseason, notably losing quarterback Tom Brady to retirement while letting left tackle Donovan Smith and several defensive pieces leave in free agency, though Smith remains unsigned. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was signed to provide competition for 2021 2nd rounder Kyle Trask, but the Bucs are a noticeably weaker team from a year ago and might lose more players to trades before the season starts, like receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Recent drafts: Tampa Bay brought in a lot of high-level talent between 2017 and 2020, which is a large part of why the team was so competitive when Brady came to town. The last two years haven’t brought the same caliber of player ready to step in, so the team is left with holes around their remaining veterans.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a running back before Day 3. Tampa is a smart organization, and they often target premium positions early in the Draft. Rachaad White was drafted in the 3rd round last year and emerged as the starter, and the team signed Chase Edmonds in free agency. Depth later in the Draft is a possibility at any position, especially one as fungible as running back, but don’t look for the Bucs to add a runner early.
Likely move/pick: Trading down. Tampa Bay has a history of trading down early in the Draft over the last five years, with a one-spot trade-up in 2020 an exception. The team went for it with Brady and walked away with a Super Bowl trophy, but a lack of depth across the roster now hampers the team, leaving them needing players at multiple spots. Trading down from #19 is a likely move, and targeting an offensive tackle when they do pick would make sense.
