I will look at offseason moves, recent draft trends/facts, and what each team is likely and unlikely to do, especially early in the Draft. Not all off-season moves will be included, but the players that will inform these decisions are mentioned.
Teams generally fill most of their holes before the NFL Draft. Still, they will inevitably look for rookies to play roles early and maybe even step into the starting lineup immediately. Mock drafts are a losing prospect due to the number of players at each position and how teams will rank players differently, so I prefer looking at what teams have done in the offseason and in previous drafts to predict what they might do this year.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Moves: Baltimore is usually quiet in free agency and builds through the Draft, which held this year. Receiver Nelson Agholor was brought in from New England as a complementary piece. Still, the team made a bigger splash by signing Odell Beckham, Jr. Hopes will be high for the former star, but it has been years since he has made a big impact and will probably fail to live up to his high price tag. They let a few players walk away while re-signing star linebacker Roquan Smith and others remain unsigned.
The major question, of course, is what happens with quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on him, but there seems to be an impasse between player and team (and other teams). So Jackson’s future is the most important thing in Baltimore (concerning the exciting Orioles).
Recent drafts: Baltimore is known for trading down, gaining extra assets, and taking the best player available. They have traded down in the 1st or 2nd round four of the last five years. No position has been targeted at a high rate, but the team will surely grab the best player available throughout the Draft. Seeing the Ravens trade out of their draft slots might be the best bet in the Draft.
Unlikely move/pick: Trading up for a player. Baltimore traded up 20 spots to get Lamar Jackson in 2018, but they have otherwise stayed put or added extra assets by moving down. The Ravens need a receiver for whoever throws passes for the team, but moving up for a specific player would not align with their usual strategy.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a receiver in the 1st round. Grabbing a receiver with their first pick is a likely move for Baltimore, wherever that pick ends up. The team moving out of the 1st round completely is possible and could earn them a future 1st, and high-end receivers are expected to be available through the first 50 or more draft picks. Rashod Bateman is returning from injury, and 2020 3rd rounder Devin Duvernay has found a role, but another strong option on the outside will likely be added early in the Draft. Beckham is a short-term option and shouldn’t stop the team from finding a good young player.
Cincinnati Bengals
Moves: Cincinnati made moves last offseason to strengthen their offensive line, but quarterback Joe Burrow still was pressured more than the team would like. Jonah Williams, a 2019 1st-round pick, struggled with health and effectiveness at left tackle, so the team signed Kansas City standout Orlando Brown, Jr. to a four-year contract. Williams has since requested a trade, but the team could hold onto him and try him on the right side this season.
Recent drafts: Like the Ravens, Cincinnati often trades down in the Draft to gain extra assets. The team has targeted needs recently, but those players have often been among the best players available. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase rebuilt the offense in back-to-back years (along with Tee Higgins in the 2nd round after Burrow), and the team has drafted to fill the depth chart and find value.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting an offensive lineman early. The offensive line is still on the minds of the Cincinnati brass, but two years of moves have made the unit solid. Even if there is value, drafting a lineman early will probably not be on the Bengals’ to-do list. Never underestimate the power of best-player-available, especially if the team does look to move Williams.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a defensive back and tight end early. The Bengals have lost talent and depth in the secondary over the last few seasons, and replenishing the stock will surely be on their minds. Safety Dax Hill (#31 overall) and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (#60) were drafted early last year, but the team had last drafted a defensive back in 2019 with 7th rounder Jordan Brown before 2022’s splurge. With three starting DBs gone in free agency, the team will likely look to add to the depth chart early.
Tight end is the other perceived weakness on the roster (and the only hole on the offense), and this Draft has options throughout. A 1st round tight end at #28 would be good value with this class, but their 2nd round pick at #60 could still produce a first-year starter. Based on what other teams do early, the team will likely move around the board and draft the best player.
Cleveland Browns
Moves: Cleveland made their big move last year by trading for quarterback Deshaun Watson, but they made shrewd moves in free agency to improve the team while not losing much talent. Dalvin Tomlinson, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and Juan Thornhill were signed to be starters on defense, and wide receiver Elijah Moore (a 2021 2nd-round pick who had a falling out with the Jets) was acquired only for the cost of the Browns moving down from #42 to #74 in the Draft. That’s a successful offseason, but 2023 will come down to Watson and if he can show his previous form after missing over a season and a half. The rest of the team is ready to contend (on paper).
Recent drafts: The Browns have had misses in the Draft, but many of their recent high picks are starting or expected to play roles this season. Picks have been spread to different positions on both offense and defense, and a strong base has been built in Cleveland through the Draft. The team made nine Draft picks last year despite not choosing until the 3rd round, and this year is set to look the same, with the team currently holding eight picks but not choosing until #74. The Watson trade bared the cupboards for several years of drafts, so the Browns must hope to hit on late-round picks to keep the team solid throughout.
Unlikely move/pick: Trading up. It’s a boring prediction by now, but Cleveland isn’t going to trade up. They have traded down early two of the last three years (with a 2nd round trade-up sandwiched between) and don’t have the capital to trade up. So instead, with the team set at starter at every position, look for the Browns to keep building depth and finding players late who can contribute.
Likely move/pick: Drafting depth along the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. While the starters are in place, the Browns are NOT deep in these two areas. So look for the team to target players at those positions (along with the best player available in many spots) without many major splashes.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Moves: Bringing in left guard Isaac Seumalo from the Eagles to pair with last season’s addition at right guard, James Daniels, solidifies the interior of the offensive line. Their young quarterback needs time to develop, and a strong front line gives him time to feel safe and see the field. Cornerback Cameron Sutton left to sign with the Detroit Lions, but Pittsburgh brought in Patrick Peterson to help fill the void. Still, the Steelers must add to the defensive backfield early in the Draft.
Recent drafts: Pittsburgh probably feels good about their 2022 draft after quarterback Kenny Pickett (1st round) developed through the season, and receiver George Pickens (2nd round) looked like another gem found on the second day of the Draft by the Steelers. Running back Najee Harris was drafted in the 1st round in 2021 and tight end Pat Freiermuth in the 2nd, so the offense has been completely reshaped with four high picks over two offseasons. That focus on the offense means the Steelers haven’t spent a 1st or 2nd round pick on a defender since trading up to select linebacker Devin Bush in 2019. Bush left this offseason to join Seattle on a modest contract.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting skill players early. Those skill positions look good, but the Steelers need to rebuild depth on the defense and across the offensive line. Teams will hit any position later in the Draft, especially skill positions with standout athletes, but look for Pittsburgh to ignore those players early and focus on filling holes.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a cornerback and offensive tackle early. The defense is getting long in the tooth at several positions, but Pittsburgh has been tied mostly to the cornerbacks in the 1st round. More than five cornerbacks could easily go in the 1st, so the Steelers must watch the board and how teams ahead of them operate. Offensive tackle is another spot to watch as Pittsburgh supports its young QB. The Steelers return players with some experience in left tackle Dan Moore, Jr. and right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, but either player could be upgraded with an early draft pick.
How the board breaks in the first 20 picks will probably determine how Pittsburgh proceeds. The team also has the first pick of the 2nd round (#32), so they can look to fill both of those holes early. (The 32nd pick is usually the last pick of the 1st round, but the Miami Dolphins were stripped of their 1st-round pick.)
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Moves: Chicago made major splashes early in free agency, signing linebackers Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo) and T.J. Edwards (Philadelphia) and starters on the offensive and defensive lines in guard Ben Jones and d-lineman DeMarcus Walker (both from Tennessee). The biggest move, though, was trading the top pick to the Carolina Panthers and moving back to #9, picking up premium extra picks and a new top receiver in D.J. Moore. The Bears also made several small moves to improve a roster devoid of talent at multiple positions.
Recent drafts: Moving up for Justin Fields in 2021 cost the Bears their 2022 1st rounder and other picks, but Chicago has found starters at all draft levels, including 6th round running back Khalil Herbert in 2021, who helped the Bears pass on paying replaceable back, David Montgomery. With extra picks coming, Chicago’s recent success drafting bolds well for the future.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a linebacker on Day 1 or 2. After making two big signings at the position, Chicago will surely look to draft elsewhere in the first two days. Depth picks later are always possible, but the Bears have other positions to address early.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a left tackle in the 1st round. The defensive line was an early link to Chicago at the top of the Draft, and that would still be a good path at #9 or with multiple other high picks. The most glaring hole on the roster, however, is left tackle, and the Bears are in a prime position to grab an instant starter. In addition, multiple plug-and-play starters project to be available when they pick, so Chicago should walk away with a new piece on the offensive line.
Detroit Lions
Moves: Detroit has been on the upswing for several seasons and entered 2023 as arguably division favorites. Graham Glasgow was signed to play right guard, but the Lions made improvements in the defensive backfield. Cornerback Cameron Sutton was signed from Pittsburgh, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson came from Philadelphia to help solidify the back end. Still, the team traded 2020 #3 overall pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta. At times, it was a defense that struggled last year and should be better with these moves.
Recent drafts: The Lions have hit on several high picks recently, even with Okudah struggling. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell and defensive end Aiden Hutchinson are high 1st rounders who haven’t disappointed, and the team has found starters after Day 1 in running back D’Andre Swift (2nd round), receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (4th) and linebacker James Houston (6th). Detroit is on the right track mostly because of shrewd moves in the Draft.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a quarterback high. I am excited to see who might trade up for a quarterback, and Detroit is in a position thanks to owning the #6 pick from the Rams from the Matthew Stafford trade. Jared Goff played very well last season, showing the form that helped him lead the Rams to a Super Bowl, and that allows the Lions to continue with Goff as their main passer and build a strong roster around him.
Likely move/pick: Adding a lot of early talent. This is a vague statement, but the Lions own four of the top 55 picks thanks to the Stafford trade and gaining a 2nd rounder from the Vikings for tight end T.J. Hockenson at the trade deadline. The strong tight-end class means Detroit will likely replace Hockenson early, and the defensive line is a common area addressed in mock drafts. The Lions already have a strong roster and will add players with premium picks this year.
Cornerback was being mocked to the Lions often, but I thought that would no longer be an early option after the off-season spending spree. The trade of Okudah, however, opens a spot in the defensive backfield, and a cornerback in the 1st round wouldn’t be a surprise.
Green Bay Packers
Moves: Trading Aaron Rodgers is the main event of the Green Bay offseason, and that move is expected to be completed before the Draft, according to insiders. Ending a streak of seasons with Brett Favre and Rodgers at QB is sad for Packer fans, but they have a 1st rounder in Jordan Love lined up to step in. The Pack usually stay anonymous in free agency, and that was the case again this year, letting a few players leave, including receiver Allen Lazard.
Recent drafts: Much has been made about the Packers passing up receivers in the 1st round, but they have found a lot of playmakers on Day 2, including running back A.J. Dillon and wide receiver Christian Watson, who comes into this season on top of the depth chart. The team has found good players in the 1st round on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield, keeping the unit strong.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a linebacker early. The Packers have a strong starting set of linebackers with a high pick (Quay Walker) and a high-priced option (De’Vondre Campbell) in the middle. Spending another high pick on the position wouldn’t make sense. Linebacker is seen as a fillable position later in the Draft, so a pick on Day 3 to create depth is more likely from Green Bay.
Likely move/pick: Trading up. The Packers have traded up within the first three rounds each of the last five years, and they could do the same this year as they target players to help their new young starting quarterback. Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer is seen as the top of the class and would fit well on a depth chart lacking impact players at that position.
The Packers have resisted 1st round pass catchers, and offensive tackle is another position to watch. Left tackle David Bakhtiari will turn 32 early in the season and has struggled with injuries, so a young player to develop and take over sooner rather than later would be another strong 1st round plan.
Minnesota Vikings
Moves: Minnesota did more shedding of talent than acquiring it, letting recent signees cornerback Patrick Peterson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson leave in free agency while also saying goodbye to franchise stalwarts in receiver Adam Thielen and linebacker Eric Kendricks. The team still has Kirk Cousins at quarterback and a superstar in receiver Justin Jefferson (and a chance to contend for the division). Still, they are not mortgaging the future by chasing players in free agency or through trades. The Vikes did sign cornerback Byron Murphy, Jr., and defensive lineman Marcus Davenport to support the defense, but those players are more middling than true difference-makers.
Recent drafts: The Vikings have found valuable contributors early in the Draft, stocking their offensive line and drafting Jefferson and running back Dalvin Cook in the first two rounds. There have also been misses, particularly in the defensive backfield, which has helped contribute to their disappointing defensive performance last season. Minnesota’s top two picks from 2022, safety Lewis Cine in the 1st and cornerback Andrew Booth, Jr., in the 2nd, missed extended time last season and come into 2023 with expectations to start and/or contribute heavily. The development of the defense may hinge on how those players bounce back.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting offensive line early. Every starter on the Viking offensive line is a 1st or 2nd round pick, showing the team takes the trenches seriously. The team lacks depth up front and could target players later on Day 2 or Day 3, but their earliest picks will probably focus on defense with multiple holes.
Likely move/pick: Trading down. Minnesota only has five picks coming into the Draft, with no selection in the 2nd or 7th rounds. Last year was the first Draft in charge for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, and he followed a common Viking tactic by trading down for more assets. The team’s 12th pick last year became #32 and #34, thanks to the Lions, and #34 then became #53 and #59 (followed by trading up from #53). With the team lacking draft assets, look for the Vikings to trade down again and replenish the coffers.
