I will look at offseason moves, recent draft trends/facts, and what each team is likely and unlikely to do, especially early in the Draft. Not all off-season moves will be included, but the players that will inform these decisions are mentioned.
Teams generally fill most of their holes before the NFL Draft. Still, they will inevitably look for rookies to play roles early and maybe even step into the starting lineup immediately. Mock drafts are a losing prospect due to the number of players at each position and how teams will rank players differently, so I prefer looking at what teams have done in the offseason and in previous drafts to predict what they might do this year.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Moves: The Bills haven’t made many big moves, mostly swapping in players to replace those who left. Running back and receiver have seen churn, and the team signed a starter along the offensive line in guard Connor McGovern from Dallas to replace free agent Roger Saffold, a move that should be an upgrade. Losing star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears is the most significant blow they suffered in the offseason.
Recent drafts: Buffalo has invested heavily in the offensive and defensive lines over the last few years and has grabbed skill position players in the mid-to-late rounds, like running back James Cook (2nd round in 2022) and four receivers in the 4th round or later since 2020. They have built a strong roster through intelligent draft picks and player development, and that will have to be a continued formula as young players have become expensive.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting Bijan Robinson. Bijan Robinson from Texas is seen as a top talent in the Draft, but running backs are losing more value every year. Insiders say he will be picked in the 1st round (maybe the top 20 picks), and Buffalo is seen as a team that can upgrade a luxury position because of their strong roster.
I wouldn’t say I like this idea for Buffalo. Kansas City drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the 1st round in 2020, with many lauding it as an excellent choice for similar reasons to the current Bills. However, Kansas City lost the Super Bowl partly because they lacked depth on the offensive line and couldn’t protect Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo has other areas they can create depth at, and their addition of Damien Harris (from New England) in free agency along with Cooks last year point to a team that can fill other needs early.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a linebacker early. Terrel Bernard was a 3rd round pick last year, but filling the hole at linebacker created by the loss of Edmunds will likely require more. Linebackers Drew Sanders (Arkansas) and Trenton Simpson (Clemson) are seen as late-1st or 2nd-round choices, and the Bills are in a position to add one with the 27th pick possibly. Filling other holes on the roster in free agency points toward the Bills using the Draft to solve linebacker.
Miami Dolphins
Moves: The Dolphins acquired starters at slot receiver (Braxton Berrios, signed from the Jets), linebacker (David Long, Jr., signed from the Titans), and cornerback (Jalen Ramsey in a trade with the Rams). They re-signed their top two running backs, Raheem Moster and Jeff Wilson, Jr., but Miami lost tight end Mike Gesicki to the Patriots. Gesicki is more of a receiver, and he didn’t fit well in Mike McDaniel’s offense last year, so that loss looks smaller than it would for other teams.
Recent drafts: The Dolphins had five 1st round picks and four 2nd round picks over the 2020-21 drafts and used those selections to help build a strong roster (even when a few were missed). The 2022 draft saw Miami with only four picks (the highest at #102) due to previous trading, and they are in the same situation this year, including missing their 1st rounder for tampering with Tom Brady. The Dolphins seem to have filled most of their holes and won’t be using the Draft to add many players.
Unlikely move/pick: Choosing in the top 50. Trading down has been the team’s MO over the past few years, so picking higher than their current top pick (#51) isn’t likely. With only 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 7th round picks, there isn’t much ammunition to work with to trade up unless they want to dip into the future. With a roster mostly set, don’t look for the Dolphins to move up for a specific player in the 1st or 2nd round.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a tight end on Day 2 after trading back. Conversely, Miami’s habit of trading down early in the Draft could come into play as they sit with league-low draft capital. With later picks, the Dolphins will be looking to build depth and acquire players on cheaper contracts. After losing a starting tight end, the team could take advantage of what’s considered a very good draft class to upgrade and find a player who fits the system better than Gesicki.
New England Patriots
Moves: Pass catchers and playmakers were seen as necessities to improve the team around Mac Jones, and the Patriots signed Gesicki and Juju Smith-Schuster to help fill those voids. Last year’s leading receiver, Jakobi Meyers, signed with the Raiders, so the team isn’t totally set at the position, but they did some work in free agency. Former left tackle Isaiah Wynn is still a free agent, but the team doesn’t seem to view him as an impact starter, even if they bring him back. Cornerback has been stressed as an area for improvement, but the team re-signed Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills to fill roles.
Recent drafts: The Patriots are always active in the Draft, trading up and down, and they haven’t made less than eight picks in any draft since 2017 (with an uncharacteristic four). Last year, picks included a 1st round guard (Cole Strange), a 2nd round receiver (Tyquan Thornton), four other skill players, offensive linemen, and a backup quarterback. All moves to help an offense that struggled mightily last season. While the team has made many picks, few have stuck with the intended impact.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting a tight end. This is a stacked draft at tight end, and Belichick isn’t shy about making moves at the position, choosing two players in the 3rd round in 2020 before signing Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to free-agent contracts in 2021. Smith was sent to Atlanta in a trade, but the signing of Gesicki means the Patriots will probably look elsewhere, at least until late in the Draft. No other spot on their roster looks truly solid.
Likely move/pick: Drafting an offensive tackle in the 1st round. Cornerback was mocked by the Patriots often early in the offseason, but the team has since made moves to sure up the position. That leaves offensive tackle as the standout hole, as the team has two veterans who were solid early in their careers but are on the back end and might project better in rotational roles (Trent Brown and Riley Reiff). More than five offensive tackles will likely go in the 1st round, and the Patriots are in a prime position to grab one at #14. They could trade up to target a specific player or trade back and add extra value before taking a tackle later in the round and end up with an immediate starter either way.
The receiver is still a hole, and multiple players project to go in that range, but the team has usually focused on pass catchers later, like Thornton last year all the way back to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010. New England has #46 and #76 on Day 2 before three 4th rounders and four 6th rounders the final day. So expect a lot of trading throughout the three days from the Patriots.
New York Jets
Moves: The offseason for the Jets hinges on acquiring Aaron Rodgers, a certainty according to league insiders, although the deal is not yet completed. New York had signed a couple of receivers (Mecole Hardman from Kansas City and Rodgers-requested Allen Lazard from Green Bay) and was tied to Odell Beckham, Jr. before he signed with Baltimore. A team that sported a great defense last season is on the verge of assembling a real offense, something it has lacked for a long time.
Recent drafts: The Jets nailed the 2022 draft, coming away with four picks in the top 36, including a number one cornerback (Sauce Gardner), a number one receiver (Garrett Wilson), and the best running back in the Draft before getting hurt (Breece Hall), along with a pass rusher some considered a top-10 talent who the Jets were able to trade up for at #26 (Jermaine Johnson II). Previous drafts have hit (guard Alijah Vera-Tucker), and misses (quarterback Zach Wilson, to name one), but New York is headed in the right direction.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting defense in Round 1. There are a lot of good defensive players early in the Draft, and the run of quarterbacks, pass catchers, and offensive linemen likely to be chosen in the 1st round means value on defenders will be high. Still, the Jets will probably resist the urge to take a defensive player early, even if he is higher on their board because that unit was such a plus last year. Instead, building the offense has been the clear goal this offseason.
Likely move/pick: Drafting an offensive tackle in the 1st round. Offensive tackle looks like the obvious place to upgrade for this year and the future, and multiple options should be available when the Jets are on the clock at #13. The Patriots sit one pick back and could also target a tackle, as mentioned above, so New York might look to move up the board if one or more players at the position get drafted. New York walking away without a future left tackle would leave fans scratching their heads.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Moves: The Cowboys lost tight end, Dalton Schultz, creating a hole the team hasn’t filled. They helped with the pass-catching portion by trading for wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but the tight end position remains light. McGovern signed with the Bills after playing more than 75% of the snaps last season, and he has not been replaced, leaving another hole on the offensive line.
Recent drafts: Dallas has targeted premium positions early since drafting running back Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round in 2016. The offensive line, wide receiver, cornerback, and defensive line have been priorities of late, including Micah Parsons rushing the passer and being a defensive menace since arriving in 2021. As a result, the team has added a lot of talent through the Draft that remains on the roster.
Unlikely move/pick: Trading up in the 1st round. Dallas is #26 and has a reputation for wheeling and acquiring players. That is true in free agency and through trades, but the team prefers to stay put in the Draft, especially early. So don’t look for the Cowboys to trade up to target a player.
Likely move/pick: Drafting offensive line and tight end in the first two rounds. This is a solid tight-end class, and Dallas will probably look to fill their starting role early. Depending on how the first 25 picks of the Draft go, the Cowboys could take two paths toward filling their holes: draft a tight end or offensive lineman in the 1st round and fill the other wholly in the 2nd round, or target the best player available on Day 1 and fill holes with players that will compete to start on Day 2.
New York Giants
Moves: New York locked itself into the current core by signing quarterback Daniel Jones to a new contract and placing the franchise tag on running back Saquon Barkley with intentions of signing him to a long-term deal. Tight end Darren Waller was added in a trade with the Raiders to add firepower to the passing game, but he has struggled with injuries the last few years. In addition, defensive back Bobby McCain and linebacker Bobby Okereke were signed as defensive starters.
Recent drafts: The Giants have attacked the lines early in drafts and filled most starting spots. Kadarius Toney, the receiver they took in the 1st round in 2021, was traded to the Chiefs last year, but other high picks are still on the team and playing roles. New York has set itself up well in the Draft, especially with Jones’s breakout season under center.
Unlikely move/pick: Staying at their current draft slots. Entering the Draft with ten picks, the Giants have ammunition to move around the board. Last year they traded down twice in the 2nd round, but Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll’s former bosses in Buffalo have been actively trading up the board. New York was seen to be retooling last offseason, but a surprise playoff run has turned their fortunes and might do the same to their draft plans.
Likely move/pick: Choosing a receiver early, maybe after a trade-up. New York is #25 in the 1st round and has been linked to wide receivers in mock drafts. They added depth and re-signed receivers but lacked a top option, especially after trading Toney. Finding receivers later in the Draft would probably be redundant, so grabbing a top option would make more sense. Quentin Johnson (TCU), Jordan Addison (USC), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State) could all fit that role to certain degrees, so trading up to grab the player they identify wouldn’t be a surprise.
Philadelphia Eagles
Moves: Philly was bound to lose players after having so much talent on the roster and with a vast extension coming for Jalen Hurts, but they did well to keep the players they did. Many who did leave had replacements on the roster already, and the Eagles signed former 1st round pick Rashaad Penny from Seattle to replace running back Miles Sanders.
Recent drafts: Speaking of the players ready to take over starting spots, the Eagles have drafted with a plan, and that began with taking Hurts in the 2nd round while Carson Wentz was seemingly entrenched at QB. Guard Isaac Seumalo left to sign with Pittsburgh, but 2021 2nd-round pick Landon Dickerson from Alabama is slated to step in. A 2022 2nd rounder, Cam Jurgens, is also set to start and probably slotted to take over at center once stalwart Jason Kelce retires. The Eagles have one of the most complete teams in football due to their impeccable drafting.
Unlikely move/pick: Staying at both #10 and #30. The Eagles only have six picks, but four are in the first three rounds (along with two 7th rounders). Their two 1st round picks allow them to trade down and gain more, which is a likelihood for a team that needs to add cheap contracts. Look for Philadelphia to be active in moving around the Draft.
Likely move/pick: Adding to the defense. The players that left in free agency mainly affected the depth on the defensive side, so look for the team to draft there early. For example, Nakobe Dean was projected to be a 1st round pick for much of the lead-up to the 2022 draft, but he fell to the 3rd round, where the Eagles snatched him up. He is slated to start this year and is likely to succeed, but more depth and maybe some early competition at middle linebacker is a likely target, along with the defensive line.
Washington Commanders
Moves: Signing quarterback Jacoby Brissett sets a good baseline, but it likely means Washington will head into the season with him and second-year passer Sam Howell battling for the QB job. That caps the ceiling for this team. Re-signing franchise-tagged defensive tackle Daron Payne to a long-term contract solidified the defensive line. In addition, the team signed former Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie as they continue their commitment to the trenches.
Recent drafts: Washington has brought in a lot of talent through the Draft at various positions and has a solid roster. Their free-agent signings have been more to complement the roster than fill major holes other than Wylie. Quarterback is the real spot the Commanders need to hit, and the jury is still out on Howell after only one start as a rookie. The team hasn’t bottomed out to the point of being able to draft a top QB option recently, so they must hope a solid roster buoys the signal caller.
Unlikely move/pick: Drafting skill players early. Jahan Dotson was chosen in the 1st round last year and played well as a rookie, and 3rd round running back Brian Robinson, Jr. made an improbable comeback from being shot to play well and secure the starting job. With other options at running back, receiver, and tight end, Washington is likelier to add depth elsewhere early in the Draft.
Likely move/pick: Drafting a cornerback in the 1st round. The Commanders have been linked to cornerbacks in most mock drafts, and it makes sense based on their roster. Another offensive lineman early, even in the 1st round, would add depth to a unit that needs it, but Washington doesn’t have many holes. The team can fill its few needs and take the best player available at other spots, including another quarterback later in the Draft.
