After a week of picking eleven of fourteen mid-major conference tournament winners, it’s time to handicap Mid-Majors in NCAA First-Round games.
This is the third–and most important–article in my series on Mid-Majors to watch in the Big Dance. The first and second articles were published on January 26 and February 28, and most of the teams I picked came through and won their respective conference tournaments. Only three of the fourteen teams failed to win their respective conference tournaments: St. Mary’s was blown out by Gonzaga; Liberty lost by one point in the ASUN tournament final; and UNC Greensboro also lost by one point in the Southern quarterfinals to the eventual tournament champ Wofford.
The table below includes how each team I picked performed in their respective conference tournaments and who each team will face in NCAA Tournament Play-In or First-Round games.
| Frank’s February Picks
(Pre-conference tournaments) |
Frank’s Ranking of Mid-Majors that Could Win a March Madness First-Round Game (Predictions going into Conference Tournaments) |
Conference Tournament Outcomes
|
NCAA NET National Ranking (All 363 Major & Mid-Major teams as of March 14)* |
First-round Opponent (Vegas line, ESPN Matchup Predictor, % winning) |
| St. Mary’s | #1 | Lost West Coast Conference Final to Gonzaga 77-51 | #11 | SMC vs. VCU, Fri., 2p: -3 SMC, 65% |
| Florida Atlantic | #2 | Won Conference-USA title, beating Alabama-Birmingham 78-56 | #13 | FAU vs. Memphis, Fri., 9:20p: -2 Memphis, 57% Memphis |
| VCU | #3 | Won the Atlantic 10 title, beating Dayton 68-56 | #58 | VCU vs. SMC Fri., 2p: -3 SMC, 65% SMC |
| Charleston | #4 | Won Colonial Association title, beating UNC Wilmington 63-58 | #51 | CoC vs. SDSU, Th., 3:10p: -5 SDSU, 66% SDSU |
| Liberty | #5 | Lost ASUN Conference Final to Kennesaw State 67-66 | #44 | No NCAA At-Large Bid |
| UNC Ashville | #6 | Won Big South title, beating Campbell 77-73 | #140 | UNCA vs. UCLA, Th., 10:05p: -18 UCLA, 97% UCLA |
| Oral Roberts | #7 | Won Summit League title, beating North Dakota State 92-58 | #36 | ORU vs. Duke, Th, 7:10p: -6.5 Duke, 80% Duke |
| Kent State | #8 | Won Mid-American title, beating Toledo 93-78 | #57 | Kent vs. Indiana, Fri., 9:55p: -4 IU, 72% IU |
| UNC Greensboro | #9 | Lost Southern Conference quarterfinal to Wofford (eventual conference tourney champ), 67-66 | #113 | No NCAA At-Large Bid |
| Colgate | #10 | Won Patriot League title, beating Lafayette 79-61 | #101 | Colgate vs. Texas, Th., 7:25p: -13.5 Texas, 92% Texas |
| Drake/Bradley | #11 | Drake Won Missouri Valley Conference title, beating Bradley 77-51 | #54 | Drake vs. Miami (FL), Fri., 7:25p: -2.5 Miami, 56% Miami |
| Iona | #12 | Won MAAC title, beating Marist 76-55 | #59 | Iona vs. UConn, Fri., 4:30p: -9 UConn, 81% UConn |
| On the Radar: | ||||
| Kennesaw State | #13 | Won the ASUN Conference title, beating Liberty 67-66 | #114 | Kennesaw vs. Xavier, Fri: 12:40p., -11.5 XU, 89% XU |
| Vermont | #14 | Won America East title, beating UMass Lowell 72-59 | #109 | UVM vs. Marquette, Fri, 2:45p:-11 MU, 85% MU |
*NET rankings, which replaced RPI, are based on winning percentage, game results, SOS, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. Find more info here.
First-Round Analysis
Up to this point, I’ve analyzed and compared mid-majors against each other, but this weekend that applies in only one case, SMC vs. VCU. This weekend is about Mid-Major-Major match-ups. On that score, it’s a six of one/half dozen of the other situation–some are favorable for Mid-Majors, and others are not.
Let’s break my picks into three categories: 1) bad match-ups for Mid-Majors, 2) Mid-Major teams that have a chance to keep Majors from covering the line, and 3) Mid-Majors that have a better-than-good chance to win.
I think the worst match-ups are UVM/Marquette and Colgate/Texas. I do not believe UVM (+11) or Colgate (+13) can hang with their respective opponents, and I wouldn’t recommend picking against the big spread in either game. Why? Marquette is playing exceptionally well, and Texas has a shot at a national championship. UNCA/UCLA and ORU/Duke aren’t much better in the match-up department. I like spunky Ashville (Drew Pember nearly averages a double-double for the season, 21.1 points, 9.4 rebounds), but the Bruins are good–perhaps not 18.5 points better–but I’m not sure you would want to bet against the spread. The Bruins have their version of a ‘near double-double” player in Jaime Jaquez, Jr. (17.3 points, 8.1 rebounds). He and UCLA play big in big games. ORU may have a chance if the Blue Devils have difficulty containing 7’ 5” Connor Vanover. That said, ORU will have its hands full with Kyle Filipowski, who has outscored and outrebounded Vanover this year (15.4 vs. 12.9 PPG and 9.0 vs. 7.2 RPG). Filipowski has done it against better competition, too. But Duke doesn’t always play well in first-round NCAA games (e.g., losing to Mercer in 2014). So is history one reason for the modest -6.5 Duke line? Perhaps. Whether it is or not, watch this game closely. ORU has a chance to nab a win.
Along the lines of “They have a chance,” let’s put Kennesaw/Xavier and Iona/UConn in that category. Xavier is good, but the Musketeers (like Duke) can underperform when it matters most. KSU, on the other hand, is experiencing the super big high that Florida Gulf Coast fans felt a decade ago (same conference, ASUN, too). Ok, so I’ll take a gulp and predict that XU won’t cover the 11.5-point spread. UConn is good, but I feel the same about the Huskies as I do about XU. (Can you tell I’m not a Big East fan?) If the Gael’s Walter Clayton, Jr. (17 ppg) and Nelly Junior Joseph (9.4 RPG) have big games, and Iona stays out of foul trouble, I think this team will at least lose by fewer than nine points; and it will have a chance to grab an outright win. Rick Pitino is a big reason why.
Let’s focus on teams I believe have the best chance to play David this weekend: FAU vs. Memphis and Kent vs. Indiana. No crystal ball here, and the lines tell why: FAU +2 and Kent +4. These games are the best match-ups of the weekend for my Mid-Major picks. Florida Atlantic is for real, and if you’ve seen the Owls play, you know what I mean. Johnell Davis is an all-everything player (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 1.5 APG and SPG), and 7” 1’ Vladislav Goldin is an inside terror. Memphis? This is not a team I trust to come through, even though they knocked off 1-seed Houston in the American tourney final. As for “not coming through,” IU may rank #1 nationally. That said, in Trayce Jackson-Davis, IU may have the best player in the tournament. He leads the Hoosiers in all three major statistical categories–20.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG, and 4.1 APG). Jackson-David will need to keep performing for IU to win. Meanwhile, Kent (like FAU) is an excellent and underrated team. The Golden Flashes have a solid player in Sincere Carry (17.6 PPG, 4.9 APG). The problem for Kent is their schedule–no wins against either major team on its slate, Gonzaga (lost by seven) and Houston (lost by five)–and KSU plays in a conference (MAC) with uneven competition.
As for my other Mid-Major picks.
—St. Mary’s remains my #1 Mid-Major team, but I believe VCU can knock off the Gaels.
—College of Charleston has a tough assignment against San Diego State, which (in my opinion) is in Gonzaga’s major (not mid-major) team category. I predict talent disparity will show in this game.
–The biggest surprise among the teams I follow is that Drake is +2.5 vs. Miami (FL). But I do not believe the Hurricanes will take the Bulldogs lightly, and (as with CoC-SDSU) there’s a big talent/competition disparity here.
Other Mid-Major/Major match-ups to watch this weekend include
#13 Furman vs. #4 Virginia (-5.5 UVA): Paladins are riding high, and I bite my nails whenever UVA plays. A close game seems on tap.
#10 Boise State vs. #7 Northwestern (-2 NU): I’ve seen BSU play (impressed), and NU seems wobbly. I pick Boise to win outright if Tyson Degenhart (54% FG%, 36% from three) wins the battle against NU’s Boo Buie (17.1 PPG, 4.5 APG).
#13 Louisiana vs. #4 Tennessee (-10.5 UT): This game could be a blowout for the Volunteers or a UL surprise.
#14 UC Santa Barbara vs. #3 Baylor (-11 Baylor): The Big 12 is too tough for this game to make my list. I pick BU to win, but UCSB has played well in past tournament games. As a 12-seed in 2021, the Gauchos lost to #5 Creighton by a single point.
#14 Montana State vs. Kansas State (-8.5 KSU): Ditto on this one: Holy Big 12! In the end, though, I pick the Wildcats to cover, and one reason is that I expect a big game from my favorite player in the tournament, 5’ 8” Markquis Nowell (16.8 PPG, 7.6 APG, and 3.5 RPG).
Enjoy!
