I had a solid success rate of 79% in picking mid-major conference tournament champions.
As I cue up to make my picks, here are excerpts of my writing (January 26 and February 28) and how things eventually turned out in each conference.
BIG SOUTH: “Newcomer Longwood 15-6 and UNC Ashville 15-6 are the teams to watch in the Big South.” I’m still watching UNCA. But, unfortunately, Longwood took a dip.” (Outcome: UNCA won the Big South title.)
COLONIAL: “UNC Wilmington is a team I’ve followed in previous seasons, but this year it’s College of Charleston 21-1, a team on a 20-game streak. Charleston has continued to win (now on a seven-game win streak at 28-3 overall).” (Outcome: Charleston won the Colonial title.)
CONFERENCE USA: “I use the words–out of nowhere–to evaluate Florida Atlantic, 19-1 then, and 26-3 currently. The Owls are the class of the C-USA.” (FAU won the C-USA title.)
HORIZON: “UW Milwaukee, on top at 14-6 a month ago (and 20-10 now), has been displaced by Youngstown State at 23-8 as the league’s best. But don’t be surprised if Northern Kentucky (one of my annual March Madness picks) wins the conference tournament.” (Outcome: NKU won the Horizon title.)
MID-AMERICAN: “I always pick multiple teams from the MAC and will do it again this year. My picks in January were Kent, Akron, and Toledo. The Rockets took the league at 23-6, but my betting choice is that Kent State (also 23-6 and one game behind UT) will win the conference tournament.” (Outcome: Kent State won the MAC title.)
MISSOURI VALLEY: “Two teams have combined to win 19 consecutive games. They are recent conference winner Drake (now 24-6) and Bradley (22-8), a team with a glorious past. My gut tells me that the conference tourney winner is an excellent bet to spring a first weekend surprise in the Big Dance.” (Outcome: Drake won the MVC title.)
PATRIOT: “Last month, I went with Colgate (15-7 then and 23-8 now), which was on a nine-game winning streak then and is on a six-game streak now. I’d love to see the Red Raiders spring a first-weekend upset.” (Outcome: Colgate won the Patriot title.)
WEST COAST: “I think St. Mary’s will get a bid even if (as expected) Gonzaga (a major, not a mid-major) wins the conference tournament.” (Outcome: Gonzaga won the WCC title, and SMC received an NCAA At-Large bid.)
Next, let’s look at the teams I ranked in February (revised list from January) as “most probable” to score a March Madness upset. But most Mid-Majors can’t spring an upset unless they win their respective conference tournaments. That’s because At-Large bids for Mid-Major teams are few and far between. That’s why I always start this annual series by analyzing probable conference tournament winners.
How did I do this year? My hit rate on conference tournament calls was 79% (11-3). Only three of the fourteen teams failed to win their respective conference tournaments: St. Mary’s was blown out by Gonzaga; Liberty lost by one point in the ASUN tournament final; and UNC Greensboro also lost by one point in the Southern quarterfinals to the eventual tournament champ Wofford.
The table below includes how each team I picked performed in their respective conference tournaments and who each team will face in NCAA Tournament Play-In or First-Round games.
| Frank’s February Picks
(Pre-conference tournaments) |
Frank’s Ranking of Mid-Majors that Could Win a March Madness First-Round Game (Predictions going into Conference Tournaments) |
Conference Tournament Outcomes
|
NCAA NET National Ranking (All 363 Major & Mid-Major teams as of March 14)* |
First-round Opponent (Vegas line, ESPN Matchup Predictor, % winning) |
| St. Mary’s | #1 | Lost West Coast Conference Final to Gonzaga 77-51 | #11 | SMC vs. VCU, Fri., 2p: -3 SMC, 65% |
| Florida Atlantic | #2 | Won Conference-USA title, beating Alabama-Birmingham 78-56 | #13 | FAU vs. Memphis, Fri., 9:20p: -2 Memphis, 57% Memphis |
| VCU | #3 | Won the Atlantic 10 title, beating Dayton 68-56 | #58 | VCU vs. SMC Fri., 2p: -3 SMC, 65% SMC |
| Charleston | #4 | Won Colonial Association title, beating UNC Wilmington 63-58 | #51 | CoC vs. SDSU, Th., 3:10p: -5 SDSU, 66% SDSU |
| Liberty | #5 | Lost ASUN Conference Final to Kennesaw State 67-66 | #44 | No NCAA At-Large Bid, NIT vs. Villanova |
| UNC Ashville | #6 | Won Big South title, beating Campbell 77-73 | #140 | UNCA vs. UCLA, Th., 10:05p: -18 UCLA, 97% UCLA |
| Oral Roberts | #7 | Won Summit League title, beating North Dakota State 92-58 | #36 | ORU vs. Duke, Th, 7:10p: -6.5 Duke, 80% Duke |
| Kent State | #8 | Won Mid-American title, beating Toledo 93-78 | #57 | Kent vs. Indiana, Fri., 9:55p: -4 IU, 72% IU |
| UNC Greensboro | #9 | Lost Southern Conference quarterfinal to Wofford (eventual conference tourney champ), 67-66 | #113 | No NCAA At-Large Bid |
| Colgate | #10 | Won Patriot League title, beating Lafayette 79-61 | #101 | Colgate vs. Texas, Th., 7:25p: -13.5 Texas, 92% Texas |
| Drake/Bradley | #11 | Drake Won Missouri Valley Conference title, beating Bradley 77-51 | #54 | Drake vs. Miami (FL), Fri., 7:25p: -2.5 Miami, 56% Miami |
| Iona | #12 | Won MAAC title, beating Marist 76-55 | #59 | Iona vs. UConn, Fri., 4:30p: -9 UConn, 81% UConn |
| On the Radar: | ||||
| Kennesaw State | #13 | Won the ASUN Conference title, beating Liberty 67-66 | #114 | Kennesaw vs. Xavier, Fri: 12:40p., -11.5 XU, 89% XU |
| Vermont | #14 | Won America East title, beating UMass Lowell 72-59 | #109 | UVM vs. Marquette, Fri, 2:45p:-11 MU, 85% MU |
*NET rankings, which replaced RPI, are based on winning percentage, game results, SOS, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. Find more info here.
Now, it’s on to handicapping how teams will do this week in first-round games.
