There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a current roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming draft.
Buffalo Bills
General Manager: Brandon Beane, hired in May 2017
Coach: Sean McDermott, hired in January 2017
The Bills have built one of the best rosters in football through shrewd drafting. What’s being tested now is the team’s ability to fill holes now that players are becoming expensive and leaving (e.g., Tremaine Edmunds). In addition, the division is only getting more challenging as the Dolphins and Jets continue to improve. So walking to a division title every year, as did the 2000-10s Patriots, won’t be an option. Besides, there are bigger fish to fry–Kansas City and Cincinnati included–so the pressure is on in Orchard Park.
2018: #21 to #12 to #7, up again 22 to #16
2019: up in 2nd, up from 4th to 3rd
2022: up #25 to #23, down #57 to #60 to #63
Buffalo traded up with excellent results in 2018, first moving up twice to get Josh Allen (including going from #21 to #12 before the Draft started), then trading up again in the 1st round to get Tremaine Edmunds. Buffalo has moved up in the 1st or 2nd round in three of the last five drafts, so look for them to be aggressive in moving if an attractive player begins to fall.
Possible trade spots: Moving up from late in the 1st round closer to the middle is a common practice in the draft, and the Bills have made similar moves in the past. Trading up from their current position at #27 to the early 20s would make sense with teams that like to trade back in Baltimore (#22) and Minnesota (#23). Buffalo has a stacked roster, so identifying one player who would fit and upgrading them at a position is something the Bills can do more easily than most teams with multiple holes to fill. The Bills have shown they like to hit the defensive line early in pasts drafts, so moving up for one of the linemen who falls would make sense. Shoring up the offensive front is also possible, with multiple tackles projected in the mid-to-late 1st.
Miami Dolphins
GM: Chris Grier, hired in January 2016
Coach: Mike McDaniel, hired in February 2022
The Dolphins looked like a contender when Tua was slinging the ball around, but the team bowed out in the first round when injuries hit the roster, including their top two quarterbacks. Miami has spent the offseason upgrading, specifically adding Jalen Ramsey in a trade with the Rams. The roster looks loaded, so supplementing the roster with cheap draft picks is smart. The problem for Miami is they have traded away (or been stripped of) most of their draft capital.
2019: down in 2nd
2020: down #26 to #30
2021: down, then up from #3 to #12 to #6, up in 2nd
Miami has been willing to move down and add extra picks, but the team aggressively traded up in 2021, including from #12 to #6, to secure receiver Jaylen Waddle after a previous trade down. Trading for Tyreke Hill sapped the Dolphins of Draft capital last season, and they were stripped of their 1st rounder this year for tampering with Tom Brady. As a result, the Dolphins have only four draft picks in this year’s draft, with 2nd, 3rd, 6th, and 7th round picks.
Possible trade spots: The lack of picks limits what the team can do, but trading back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds would add more picks and help Miami bring in a stronger class. The tactic seems likely as Miami needs to make up the lost draft picks, so look for the team to trade back (relatively) early and often.
New England Patriots
Coach and GM: Bill Belichick, hired in January 2000
The Patriots’ extended run of excellence has calmed since Tom Brady left, and that has Belichick looking to build his first real winner since the split (despite a playoff appearance in 2021). There is lore around the Patriots’ Draft Day moves, with some analysts saying teams lose every trade they make with Belichick. Working the board is an art, even if the players that come with those picks haven’t broken through.
2018: down twice and up once in 2nd, turned #105 to #114 to future 3rd
2019: up in 2nd, down 2nd to 3rd, down twice in 3rd
2020: down #23 to #37, up from 3rd to 2nd, up in 3rd, up from 4th to 3rd
2021: up in 2nd
2022: down #21 to #29, up in 2nd, down from 3rd to 4th
The Patriots are the most active team in the Draft and are known for trading down to create more picks. The five-year sample shows New England trades down a lot, but they trade up nearly as often in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Along with one pick in the first three rounds, the Patriots have three 4th round picks and four 6th-round picks to go with their 7th. Belichick can actively trade up and down in this Draft, opening up multiple possibilities.
Possible trade spots: Trading up on Days 2 and 3 is likely (along with trading down), but the Patriots have a hesitancy to move up in the 1st round when teams pay the highest premium. Moving back from their current position at #14 is possible, but New England is in an excellent spot to sit tight and grab one of the 1st round corners, a popular Mock Draft pick. The tactic would be similar to 2019 when everyone was anxious for the team to move up for a quarterback, but they stayed at #15 and landed Mac Jones.
New York Jets
GM: Joe Douglas, hired in June 2019
Coach: Robert Saleh, hired in January 2021
The Jets hit two home runs in the 1st round of the 2022 draft and look poised to contend in 2023 if Aaron Rodgers comes in and plays at a high level. The division is one of the best in football, so New York can’t expect to make minor moves and still hang at the top. The AFC will be an absolute dogfight, especially with Rodgers switching conferences.
2020: down in 2nd, down 3rd to 4th
2021: up #23 to #14
2022: up #35 to #26, up in 2nd
After trading down several times in 2020, the Jets moved aggressively thrice in the first two rounds in 2021-22. New York had targeted impact players and traded up to get them, showing good returns from Alijah Vera-Tucker and Breece Hall. Unfortunately, things didn’t turn out as hoped when both players were injured and missed extended time.
Possible trade spots: Assuming the Jets don’t trade the #13 pick to the Packers for Rodgers, many Mock Drafts have the Jets picking an offensive tackle. I agree with that logic and wouldn’t be surprised to see New York trade up if a run starts. The Bears (#9) and Titans (#11) are popular landing spots for the top tackles, so the Jets could look to move ahead of both teams or trade up with the Eagles at #10 if the Bears take a tackle. The Raiders at #7 also loom, so New York could eye getting #8 from the Falcons.
