Mid-Major Basketball: Teams Primed to Make Noise in March Madness (Pre-Conference Tournament Edition)

Here’s round two of my annual assessment of mid-major basketball teams to watch. It’s the pre-conference tournament edition.

Here’s how I sized up the mid-majors 2022-23 edition a month ago.

So, how do things look a month later?

–Loyola (IL) at 6-23 is in last place, and Davidson continues underperforming (13-15) in the Atlantic 10. (√)

–Winthrop, at 8-21, is 12 games behind Big South leader Gardner-Webb. (√)

–Murray State at 15-14 is in the middle of the pack in the Missouri Valley Conference. (√)

–New Mexico State (oh, dear NMSU) experienced significant internal issues. A player was implicated in an off-campus murder, and multiple players were accused of sexually-related hazing. Consequences? The school president fired the head basketball coach and called off the Aggies’ season. (sad √)

–Kennesaw State (23-8) is tied with Liberty for the ASUN lead. (√)

–Florida Atlantic (26-3) is two games up in Conference USA. (√)

–Oral Roberts (27-4) has a five-game lead on South Dakota State in the Summit League. (√)

–Only Longwood (Big South) has shifted status from how I sized things up a month ago. The Lancers have faded down the stretch (now 20-11) and are four games back of conference leader UNC-Ashville (24-7).

Last month, I made conference-by-conference picks and selected a set of teams to watch. Here’s where things stand in the conferences as of February 26, with January’s best bets listed in bold.

ATLANTIC 10: Virginia Commonwealth, 15-5 then, 22-7 now, is in first place in the league.

ASUN: I predicted that Liberty, 16-5 then, 24-7 now, could challenge Kennesaw State, 15-6 then, 23-8, now … and the Flames have done just that.

AMERICA EAST: Vermont was 10-10 a month ago but finished the season strong, winning eleven consecutive games to take the American East crown. Then league-leading UMass Lowell (17-4) finished 24-7, 2.5 games behind UVM. “I’ll be hard-pressed to pick Lowell, ” I wrote on January 26. Still am. Same for UVM.

BIG SKY: Eastern Washington (14-7 then and 22-8 now) won the Big Sky Conference regular-season title. Good for EWU.

BIG SOUTH: A month ago, I wrote: “Newcomer Longwood 15-6 and UNC Ashville 15-6 are the teams to watch in the Big South.” I’m still watching UNCA. Longwood took a dip.

BIG WEST: My pick, Santa Barbara (16-3 then and 22-7), is tied for first place with UC Irvine and UC Riverside, but UCSB didn’t run away with the league as I thought it might.

COLONIAL: Previously, I wrote: “UNC Wilmington is a team I’ve followed in previous seasons, but this year it’s College of Charleston 21-1, a team that’s on a 20-game streak.” Well, Charleston has continued to win (now on a seven-game win streak at 28-3 overall). But the more important news is that 23-8 Hofstra is on an 11-game streak and tied with C of C for the conference lead. “The Pride” has come out of nowhere! Watch this group.

CONFERENCE USA: I used those words–out of nowhere–to evaluate Florida Atlantic, 19-1 then, and 26-3 currently. The Owls are the class of the C-USA.

HORIZON:  UW Milwaukee, on top at 14-6 a month ago (and 20-10 now), has been displaced by Youngstown State at 23-8 as the league’s best. But don’t be surprised if Northern Kentucky (one of my annual March Madness picks, but not this year) wins the conference tournament.

IVY: Princeton and Cornell were 14-5 in late January. Princeton has kept pace (18-8), but Cornell has dropped off (16-10), replaced by Yale at 19-7.

MAAC: “Iona is another team that’s almost always on my watchlist,” I wrote. The Gaels were 13-6 then, and they are 22-7 now, three games up on the league competition. I thought Quinnipiac, 15-5 then, 19-10 now, might challenge. The Bobcats had beaten Rhode Island, Dartmouth, Montana State, and Holy Cross. But QU has gone 4-5 over the last month. Bobcats have lost their claws.

MID-AMERICAN: “I always pick multiple teams from the MAC, and I’ll do it again this year.” My picks in January were Kent, Akron, and Toledo. The Rockets took the league at 23-6, but my betting choice is that Kent State (also 23-6 and one game behind UT) will win the conference tournament.

MEAC: University of Maryland Eastern Shore and Howard led the league a month ago, and they are hanging in there, joined by Norfolk State. One game separates these top three teams. A conference tournament crown will be the prize.

MISSOURI VALLEY: A month ago, Southern Illinois and perennial pick Belmont led the way with a combined record of 32-11. SIU and BU have continued to have good seasons, but neither is in the conference lead. Who is? It’s two teams that have combined to win 19 consecutive games. The answer is recent conference winner Drake (now 24-6) and Bradley (22-8), a team with a glorious past. My gut tells me that the conference tourney winner is an excellent bet to spring a first-weekend surprise in the Big Dance.

NORTHEAST: Only two teams have overall winning records, barely at that. Next….

OHIO VALLEY: Morehead State, a team I’ve followed closely over the past few years, will win the league (regular season championship) and is 21-10 overall. But the Eagles can’t win away from home (7-8). “It’s not a good year for the OVC,” I wrote in late January. Nothing has changed since then.

PATRIOT: Last month, I went with Colgate (15-7 then and 23-8 now), which was on a nine-game winning streak then and is on a six-game streak now. I’d love to see the Red Raiders spring a first-weekend upset.

SWAC: In late January, the top two teams–Southern and Alcorn–were 19-20 combined. Alcorn kept pace and claimed a conference regular season co-championship with a team out of the college sports brand vault, Grambling. The Tigers from Louisiana are 19-8 and are on a six-game win streak. GU has name recognition, and you may see them play in March Madness. They are a good candidate for a play-in game if they win the conference tournament.

SOUTHERN: Here’s another conference with teams joined by a late-charging club. Furman is at the top joining the two teams I picked, UNC Greensboro and Samford. History says to pay attention to who emerges as the Southern tournament champ. I think Furman is a sleeper.

SOUTHLAND: Nichols and Southeast Louisiana were leading a month ago, and now it is Texas A&M–Corpus Cristi and Northwestern State. Ok, but…?

SUMMIT: This league has six of ten teams with losing records and a South Dakota State team (18-12) that isn’t as good as it usually is. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jackrabbits take on Oral Roberts and 7′ 5″ Connor Vanover in the conference tournament final, and the winner will go Dancing. If it’s ORU (and I think it will), fans nationally can see big-man Vanover play.

WAC: Sorry to be a broken record, but it pains me to see what this once-proud league has become. WAC conference membership looks like the outcome of a late-night darts game. Tears here, remembering what once was.

WEST COAST: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s were 35-8 combined in late January, and they are 50-11 today. I don’t cover the ‘Zags for reasons I’ve said numerous times: they are a major team playing in a mid-major conference. That may change soon if the Zags jump (as some analysts predict) to the PAC 12 or Big 12. On the other hand, the 25-6 Gaels, which got the #1 seed in the conference tournament, split the season series with Gonzaga. I think SMC will get a bid even if (as expected) Gonzaga wins the conference tournament.

My Picks with National Ranking By NCAA NET, Then (January 24) and Today

I picked fourteen teams a month ago–teams that I thought stood above the crowd. Four teams have dropped off my radar — Santa Barbara, Quinnipiack, Akron, and Longwood. In addition, two teams (same conference, split pick) have entered the scheme: Bradley and Drake in the Missouri Valley. Those teams are presented in italics below because they are the only teams among my top picks that weren’t on my screen in January. Three teams shown in regular type in the February picks column–Ashville, Greensboro, and Iona–are squads I mentioned in my January article but did not surface as the conference favorite.

My picks show national strength as measured by the NCAA NET rankings of 363 D1 basketball teams. Going into the conference tournaments, one team pick is in the Top 10 (St. Mary’s), another is in the Top 20 (FAU), and two others are in the Top 50 (Liberty and Oral Roberts). Most of my picks are ranked higher on NET today than in January (see green figures in the far right-hand column below). Charleston and Liberty are the pacesetters. Only two teams (FAU and Kent) have lower ratings (red figures below).

I’ll be back after conference tournament play to size up how the teams did and make my final predictions for The Big Dance.