What Can the Chicago Bears Expect in a Trade for the #1 Pick?

“Value” is the keyword in any exchange, and pro football is no different. So, what value can the Bears expect in a trade for the team’s #1 pick? Here is a range of answers based on my analysis. 

The Chicago Bears lucked into the #1 pick in this year’s draft when the Houston Texans won their game late in Week 18. With the Bears set at quarterback, all eyes and phone calls will be directed at the team as they consider the possibility of trading the pick.

At least a dozen teams could be looking for a new quarterback in 2023, so Chicago should be flush with offers. What could those offers look like? The two most popular draft charts, the Jimmy Johnson and Chase Stuart charts, can help us understand the value of all draft picks. Using past trades to the top of the draft, we can see what the Bears might expect to get from the teams looking to move up for the passer of their choice.

I want to look at the amount of value these trades brought back and what teams currently need a QB could offer the Bears. The offers will be structured differently depending on where a team is trading up from and what assets they have.

Tables like the one below will show up throughout, so let’s go through one quickly. Both the Johnson and Stuart draft charts assign a value to every draft pick. Most teams use some variation of these charts to determine if trades they make with draft picks come out in their favor.

The pick, listed in the left column, will have the round and draft number if it was a pick in that draft. Future picks will be labeled as such, and their value will be the same as the 16^th pick in that round since teams don’t know where that pick will end up when traded.

The value of each pick is listed, and the total points the team acquired are listed with their last pick. The premium, given at the bottom, is the percent more that the team trading down acquired: the cost of moving up for a quarterback if you will.

Two recent trades have teams moving from early-mid teens to the top three. The Los Angeles Rams traded up from #15 with the Tennessee Titans to draft Jared Goff in 2016, and the San Francisco 49ers traded up from #12 to #3 to draft Trey Lance in 2021, sending three 1^st round picks to the Miami Dolphins.

As we will see with most trades, the Stuart chart saw more of a premium paid than the Johnson chart. The Stuart chart sees the Lance trade as twice as valuable for the Dolphins as the Johnson chart, while it sees the Goff trade as seven times more valuable than the Johnson chart. The large difference in the Goff trade is because the Stuart chart values lower draft picks more than the Johnson chart.

What teams could move up from this range?

All the teams in this range have competitive rosters and could look for a veteran quarterback. There is a way for them to move up, though, and land their preferred rookie passer. The Johnson chart sees an average of a 32.15% premium, while the Stuart chart sees a staggering 94.35% overpay between these two trades. I will find trades that fall close to those numbers.

Tennessee Titans #11: All three of these teams would be making the same trade, giving up three 1^st round picks and a combination of two 2^nd, and 3^rd round picks in the next few years. This is similar to the 49ers’ trade with the Dolphins to move up for Lance.

Titans receive the #1 pick in 2023

Bears receive #11 pick in 2023, #41 pick in 2023, 1^st round picks in 2024 and 2025, 3^rd round pick in 2025

The Bears would receive a 31% premium based on the Johnson chart and a 105% premium on the Stuart chart, falling in line with our numbers. Like the 49ers, the Titans, Jets, or Commanders would be forced to give up a third 1^st round pick because they would be moving up 10+ spots (San Fran moved nine spots).

The Titans drafted Malik Willis in the 3^rd round last year (after he was expected to be a 1^st rounder), but he didn’t look near ready to play, prompting the Titans to start Joshua Dobbs in their win-and-in Week 18 game.

With Derrick Henry continuing to chug along and some expensive defensive pieces, the Titans are probably looking to retool rather than rebuild. An upgrade at quarterback is likely unless they see a lot of development from Willis behind closed doors.

New York Jets #13: The Jets trade, following the same structure, would be a bet that their young roster is ready to contend now. New York was fighting for a playoff spot through Week 17, so they can realistically see the playoffs next season with upgraded quarterback play. Much like the Titans (and Commanders), they must weigh the lost draft picks against keeping the picks and getting a veteran like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garappolo. The Jets hit on their 1^st rounders last year (Sauce Gardner and Garret Wilson), so they might be more inclined to keep future picks.

Washington Commanders #16: The Commanders need a quarterback but also have other holes on the roster, namely the offensive line. Moving up for a QB would seemingly put the rookie in a tough position up front, but the right guy under center can fix many other issues. Rookie Sam Howell showed flashes in his Week 18 start, and he will likely get a chance with some veteran competition. Any of these three teams could realistically move up, but they are more likely to continue building their strong rosters and looking at other options for their next quarterback. These trades could also be tweaked to look more like the Goff trade. Taking away one of the 1^st round picks and adding in two 2^nd rounders, and a 4^th (with smaller picks possibly going one or both) could be more appealing to a Bears team looking to plug multiple holes.

Moving from the single digits to #1 is more feasible and happens more often. Some trades moving up three to six spots in the draft have included mostly 1^st round picks, but others have been centered around lower-round picks. The Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz the same year the Rams moved up for Goff, and both passers were gone within five years. The Eagles didn’t give up as much as the other teams in this category.

The Jets traded with the Colts from #6 to #3 in 2018, seemingly getting the most pro-ready passer in the draft. However, Darnold has struggled in the NFL, and his best stretch may have been at the end of 2022 with the Carolina Panthers. The Jets didn’t have to give up another 1^st round pick, but they did give up three 2^nd rounders in the trade. Over a decade ago, the Washington Redskins moved to #2 to grab a franchise passer. Robert Griffin III had a great first campaign, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, but injuries derailed his career, and the St. Louis Rams ended up with a massive haul of picks. The Stuart chart has Washington paying a premium of over 126% for the right to move up for Griffin!!

What teams could move up from this range? This range makes finding similar trades a little more challenging, but teams with multiple picks at different parts of the draft make for various possible offers. The Johnson chart sees teams from this range giving an excess of 34.9%, while the Stuart chart sees a 95.8% average premium. This is the most likely area where a team will trade with the Bears.

#4 Indianapolis Colts, #7 Las Vegas Raiders, and #8 Atlanta Falcons The Colts, Raiders, and Falcons would offer the same package with small differences. They could use the same tactic as the 49ers, using three 1^st round picks, but giving most picks over two years and having a full complement of picks sooner has merits as well. This is a good time to look at the difference between the two options:

Using three 1^st round picks versus two 1^st rounders and two 2^nd rounders, the charts disagree on value. As I said before, the Stuart chart values lower-round picks more than the Johnson chart, and that starts in the 2^nd round (and even in the 1^st). While the Johnson chart sees these as essentially even trades, the Stuart chart sees a five-point increase or 8.4%. Depending on which chart a team prefers, they might rather have two 2^nd rounders than the third 1^st, which seems reasonable.

The Colts went the veteran route a few times, with Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan failing to get them to the top. With a top-five pick, they would be wise to investigate the quarterback market and start with a young player, as their team is in reset mode and looking for a new coach.

The Raiders aspire to catch bigger fish (Tom Brady and Gronk reuniting with Josh McDaniels? As a Raider fan, I….. don’t know what to say. That’s for another day), but they could fall in love with a rookie passer, and look to trade up. Their trade would look essentially the same as what the Colts would offer, with either three 1^st rounders or one of those replaced with two 2^nd rounders.

The Falcons have an extra 4^th round pick to help swing a deal, but their deal would also follow the same guidelines. Atlanta drafted Desmond Ridder in the 3^rd round last year, and he showed a few flashes in late-season work. The Falcons shouldn’t let that stop them if they see a superstar available in the draft.

 #5 Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are a fun one. They have an extra 1^st and 2^nd rounder from the Broncos, and those picks are the fifth selection of each round. So they have the ammunition to make many things happen in the draft. Let’s look at what their top picks are worth compared to what the Bears would be looking for:

An even trade would bring the Bears back 3,000 points of value on the Johnson chart and 34.6 on the Stuart chart. Factoring in the premium teams pay to move up to get a quarterback. We are looking at 4,047 points on the Johnson chart and 67.75 on the Stuart chart. If the Seahawks gave up all their top five picks, they would be just under what was needed on the Johnson chart (3,635 vs. the 4,047 needed), but the Stuart chart meets up almost perfectly (67.3 vs. 67.75). The Seahawks could knock out their quarterback situation in one trade.

Looking at the picks, it seems like Seattle (and most other teams) would be giving up more than they were getting in return. Draft picks are lottery tickets, though, with no knowledge of who will blossom in the NFL. Every sure thing is one injury away from everything changing. Also, a franchise quarterback means a lot more than depth along the defensive line, so teams are in different positions when making trades based on their needs.

 #9 Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have extra 2^nd and 4th-round picks from the Christian McCaffrey trade (along with replacing their missing third), so they have ammunition to move up. They are also probably anxious to get a competent quarterback after cycling through Sam Darnold (who was ok), Baker Mayfield, and others over the last few years. They also drafted Matt Corral in the 3^rd round last year, but he missed his entire rookie year with an injury.

A Carolina trade could look something like what the Jets did to move up for Darnold when they sent three 2^nd round picks to the Colts to move up from #6 to #3. Of course, they would have to give up another 1^st, but the Panthers could use 2^nd round picks to supply the bulk of the value.

Carolina’s 1^st, both 2^nd, a future 1^st, and two future 2^nd round picks add up to 4,000 points on the Johnson chart, right in line with the target. That’s two 1^st round picks, and four 2^nd round picks over the next three years. That’s a big price to pay, but Carolina might find it well worth the price to have the stability of a quarterback. That same trade would give Chicago 77.1 points of value on the Stuart chart, almost 10 points more than the target. If the Bears were more analytically inclined in their valuation of draft picks, they could come out ahead (in their view) of a team that used a more old-school approach.

In recent history, two teams have moved up one spot for a quarterback at the top of the draft, from #3 to #2. Both teams were looking to secure the passer of their choice, and both teams saw their draft pick underwhelm. Ryan Leaf is one of the best examples of never being a “sure thing.” There was a debate (maybe a quick one, but a debate nonetheless) over whether Leaf or Peyton Manning should be drafted first overall. Instead, the Chargers paid for the chance at a franchise-changing passer and were left with one of the biggest draft busts in history.

The Chicago Bears were looking to lock up their passer of the future, but they ended up taking Mitchell Trubisky instead of Patrick Mahomes (#10) or Deshaun Watson (#12) second overall. The Johnson chart sees the Trubisky trade as fair, while the Stuart chart says the Bears paid a premium of over 50%. This could have been a case of two teams operating on different charts and thinking they came out on the right side.

What teams could move up from this range? This is left to one team because of the need to have the following pick. Teams in these two trades paid a premium of under 25% on the Johnson chart (3,750 total points) and 71.35% on the Chase chart (59.3).

#2 Houston Texans: The Texans could repay the Bears for their misdeed in 2017 while hoping to get a better result. The Texans might decide there is one quarterback that stands out above everyone else, and they want to move up for that player before someone else trades up and nabs him. Here is a quick look at the Texans’ picks:

The two 1^st round picks would make a perfect fit on the Johnson chart, but it would still be short on the Stuart chart by about 10 points (21%). The Texans would probably balk at that trade or adding more, but other options could work better.

The Texans have the Browns’ first-rounder next year on top of their own, so including a pick, next year would be an option, but that still falls short on the Stuart chart. A trade that works for both charts would be the #2 pick, #33, #65, and #73.   The 65^th and 73^rd picks could also be turned into a future 2nd-rounder, and the trade would still work. I doubt this trade will happen, but there is a path and a precedent.