Names I’ve followed for years–Loyola (IL), Davidson, Winthrop, Murray State, and New Mexico State–aren’t having banner years. Others, like Kennesaw State, Longwood, Florida Atlantic, and Oral Roberts (teams that rarely appear on the radar screen), look good. So here’s my annual rundown with a Baker’s Dozen+ picks of Mid-Majors to watch as teams steam toward March.
First-round upsets are what make March Madness, well, MAD! So which teams might spring a big upset this March? A few teams stick out as possibilities, while other perennial contenders don’t look so hot.
NOTE: Records are as of the end of play Tuesday, January 24, and teams to watch are in bold.
ATLANTIC 10: Holy, Sister Jean (now 103 years old), the public face of Loyola (IL) basketball. The Ramblers are 7-12, in last place in the league. Davidson, another team I’ve watched for years, is 10-10. How things have changed! The class of this league is Virginia Commonwealth, 15-5, which includes wins over Pitt and Vandy. Just for fun, follow Fordham, yes, that oft-forgotten Bronx-situated team. The Rams are 15-4 and are worth watching.
ASUN: It could be called “The Yo-Yo” because teams are added and leave yearly. I like two this year, Liberty, 16-5, and Kennesaw State, 15-6. We’ve seen Liberty challenge before in the Big Dance, but KSU is a newcomer.
AMERICA EAST: Vermont is only 10-10, while league-leading UMass Lowell is 17-4. The Catamounts might go on a run to take the crown, but this doesn’t seem to be a banner year in Burlington, and (come March), I’ll be hard-pressed to pick Lowell.
BIG SKY: Eastern Washington 14-7 appears to be best, but I’m not excited.
BIG SOUTH: Yikes! Another longstanding team on my watchlist, Winthrop, is 8-13. Newcomer Longwood 15-6 and UNC Ashville 15-6 are the teams to watch in the South.
BIG WEST: I’ve followed UC Santa Barbara 16-3 before, and I’ll watch them again this year. The problem for the Big West is that it rarely does well outside of the league. That said, UCSB beat Fresno St.
COLONIAL: UNC Wilmington is a team I’ve followed in previous seasons, but this year it’s College of Charleston 21-1, a team that’s on a 20-game streak, with wins over Colorado State and Virginia Tech. Charleston has been there before, and the Cougars are on the watchlist again.
CONFERENCE USA: I have a friend who likes to frame the unexpected this way: “Out of nowhere!” Well, that saying applies to Florida Atlantic basketball, 2022-23. This team is 19-1 and is on an 18-game winning streak. Earlier this year, FAU lost to Ole Miss by 13 and beat Florida by three on the road. FAU doesn’t have the best resume among the Mid-Majors, but it’s good enough to turn heads…this head, especially.
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky, a team I’ve followed, beat Cincinnati earlier this season, and that’s a BIG deal around the Queen City. But UW Milwaukee 14-6 is at the league’s top, and NKU isn’t. But the Panthers were beaten handily by Purdue and Iowa State.
IVY: Princeton and Cornell are both 14-5, but neither team is on a run. Cornell came close against Miami (FL) and Boston College, but close isn’t a win.
MAAC: Iona is another team that’s almost always on my watchlist. This year the Gaels are 13-6, and another team–Siena–leads the league. But the best bet in the MAAC is Quinnipiac, 15-5, on a six-game winning streak. The Bobcats have already beaten Rhode Island, Dartmouth, Montana State, and Holy Cross. Impressive!
MID-AMERICAN: I always pick multiple teams from the MAC, and I’ll do it again this year. Kent and Akron are 16-4 and 14-6, respectively. I also like Toledo at 14-6. I like Akron best because the Zips beat NKU and New Mexico State, and (drum roll) almost sprung a huge upset at Houston.
MEAC: University of Maryland Eastern Shore and Howard lead the league, but overall, both teams hug .500.
MISSOURI VALLEY: Holy Moley! Murray State and Morehead State are barely above .500 overall, and that’s headline news. Southern Illinois and perennial pick Belmont lead the way with a combined record of 32-11. Both teams are on within-league winning streaks, and they also sport one solid out-of-conference win–SIU beat Okla State in Stillwater, and Belmont beat Ohio. Still, this is not a banner year for the historic MVC.
NORTHEAST: Only one league team has a winning record, barely winning at that (Fairleigh Dickinson 12-10).
OHIO VALLEY: Most teams have overall losing records, including the top two teams in the league, Southeast Missouri State and Tennessee Tech. It’s not a good look for the proud OVC.
PATRIOT: I’ve gone out on a limb for this team before (both in football and basketball), and I’ll do it again this year. I’m talking about Syracuse-beater (at SU) Colgate. The Red Raiders are 15-7 and on a nine-game winning streak.
SWAC: Here’s another league with mostly losing teams, and the top two teams, Southern and Alcorn, are 19-20 combined.
SOUTHERN: I’ve been a UNC Greensboro fan before, but not this year. The Spartans are only 13-8, and league-leading Samford isn’t much better at 14-7. The Bulldogs don’t play quality teams out of conference, and UNCG has only one reasonably good win on its ledger (Montana State).
SOUTHLAND: The top teams–Nichols and Southeast Louisiana–are 21-18 combined but 5-14 away from home. Ouch!
SUMMIT: South Dakota State, one of my all-time favorites, is only 11-9, so this is the first year the Jacks are not on my watchlist. Oral Roberts, 17-4, is, and the Golden Eagles have 7′ 5″ Connor Vanover in the middle (13 PPG and 7 RPG). There’s more news in the Summit. A team to watch in future years (donor money is the reason) is a Catholic U of St. Thomas (MN), a newcomer to the league. Like another Catholic newcomer, Incarnate Word (TX), the Tommies are riding athletics to upshift their brand. The Bobcats are 13-9 this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Thomas in the Big Dance soon–as soon as next year. For the record, IWU is already making noise. The football Cardinals almost made it to the national finals this year, going 12-2 and losing by only three points to perennial power North Dakota Staten in the FCS national semi-final game. (NOTE: UIW plays in the Southland Conference.)
SUN BELT: League-leading Marshall and Louisiana are 33-8 overall and 19-1 at home, but there’s not much about either team that sticks out to me.
WAC: This league needs to add a “kie” to its name because–if there was ever a collection of strange athletic bedfellows–the WAC is it. The league’s crown jewel, New Mexico State, won in March Madness last year when Teddy Allen knocked down 37 against UConn. But Allen is gone, and so is his head coach, Chris Jans (to Mississippi State), and this edition of the Aggies is in last place, 7-13 overall. Another team I have followed in past years–Grand Canyon 13-7 this season–is in the middle of the WAC. Seattle 16-4 is on top, the winner of eight-straight games, but the Redhawks don’t play anybody of note.
WEST COAST: Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are 35-8 combined, and I always like those two. But as I’ve said many times in writing these profiles, Gonzaga is a major team playing in a Mid-Major Conference, so I never pick the Zags. St. Mary’s is a different story, so I often pick the Gaels. That said, two other league teams are worth noting because they are underperforming–Portland, which almost beat Michigan State, and San Francisco, a team that rose after being down for a long time and then lost its head coach to Florida. Portland is 11-11 overall, and the Dons are 4.5 games out of first place. Translation? It’s down to the Zags v. Gaels (like it always is) for the conference championship.
National Ranking By NCAA NET
(rankings as of January 24)
St. Mary’s, NET #7: Aiden Mahaney, a freshman, is averaging 15PPG, and the team is hitting nearly 50% of its shots, winning by an average of 15 ppg.
Florida Atlantic, NET #18: The Owls shoot and rebound well and play well together. No stars. Just victories.
College of Charleston, NET #43: Dalton Bolton is averaging north of 13 PPG, and the team grabs over 40 rebounds a game.
Kent, NET #51: Sincere Curry averages nearly three assists a game for a team with a nearly 9 SPG average.
Oral Roberts, NET #52: With more than 12 blocks + steals per game, ORU converts turnovers into points.
Liberty, NET #53: Darius McGhee scores at a 21 PPG rate for a team that shares the ball well (nearly 20 APG).
Virginia Commonwealth, NET #78: The irony is that nothing stands out for this team, and VCU only wins by an average of about seven points a game.
UC Santa Barbara, NET #89: A team like UCSB that shoots well and has above-average assists can do well in NCAA first-round match-ups.
Colgate, NET #115: This well-balanced squad has shots 51%-plus from the field, 33 RPG, and an impressive 20 ASP.
Akron, NET #119: This crafty, well-coached team knows how to win.
Quinnipiac, NET #124: Big drawback is its conference affiliation, mostly weak teams that don’t offer a lot of competition. The team excels at rebounding (40 RPG) and assists (14 APG). How will it fare as a high seed against big-time competition?
Kennesaw State, NET #130: This team has figured out how to win–and is doing so without the benefit of a long-term winning tradition. The ASUN is a rag-tag bunch, though, and no team has stood out nationally since FGCU’s run a decade ago.
Longwood, NET #145: Longwood is another team without a winning tradition that doesn’t stand out in any statistical category and doesn’t have a line-up of stars.
UNC Ashville, NET #168: The Bulldogs know how to win. Almost nothing stands out if you analyze scores, except for close games. UNCA has won its last five games by a six-point per-game margin.
Last year I focused on Iona in the MAAC and didn’t pick St. Peter’s. Will a big miss happen again this year? We’ll see. In the meantime, teams have work to do. Winning the conference tournament is the only way most will get to March Madness because at-large bids for Mid-Majors are few and far between. So, I’ll be back just before the conference tournaments begin with my second round of picks.
