An excellent player has a risky (to the Padres) contract.
The Padres shocked the baseball world with an aggressive pursuit of free agents in the 2022 Winter Meetings, collectively offering over a billion dollars to free agents Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts. The Padres eventually signed Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract. Bogaerts has played all his nine-year major league career in Boston, where he’s been honored as a four-time All-Star, five-time Silver Slugger, and has been a contender for MVP multiple times.
Not only is Bogaerts a consistently above-average hitter and coming off his best defensive season with the Boston Red Sox, but he is also one of the most consistent infield bats in the game, coming off a career-high .302 batting average in 2022 with fifteen home runs.
Based on his offensive and defensive performance in the past season, Bogaerts put up an impressive 6.1 fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement), which ties him for 22nd in the 2022 season WAR leaders. According to Fangraphs, the cost per WAR of free agents in 2022 was $8.5 million, a decrease from $9.5 million in 2022 and an increase from 2019’s $7.8 million. This means that Bogaert’s 2022 production would have made him worth upwards of $48 million, making his annual salary of $25 million look like a steal for the Padres.
Bogaerts’ contract averages out to equal $25 million a year, which is a very fair price for his offensive contribution and solid defense. However, while Bogaerts’ impressive resume bolsters an already powerful Padres lineup, the length of his contract and possible regression may cause some concern in the long run.
Despite surface-level statistics making Bogaerts’ arrival to San Diego look promising, deeper statistics behind his 2022 campaign and the length of his contract raise questions about his future production. For example, BABIP is a statistic that measures the batting average on every ball the batter puts into play, incorporating popups to hard base hits. While an average BABIP is around .300, Bogaerts’ 2022 BABIP was .362, a .029 increase from his 2021 season. While a high BABIP like Bogaerts may result from an increase in hard line drives or soft infield hits, more often than not, it is the result of luck. This increase in BABIP likely explains how Bogaerts achieved his career high in batting average, which would have increased his overall offensive production.
Furthermore, Bogaerts’ slugging percentage in 2022 was .456, his lowest of the previous three seasons, resulting in minimal home runs for his usual production. Fangraphs projects Bogaerts’ batting average to drop to .267 in 2023, with his slugging continuing to drop down to .427. This projection does not indicate that Bogaerts will have a bad season next year, but rather, he will fall back to his usual above-average production. Not only can we expect regression within the next year, but the length of the contract leaves Xander Bogaerts vulnerable to regression due to his age.
At 30 years of age, Bogaerts is the oldest shortstop from the highly touted 2022 class., meaning that at the end of his 11-year contract, Bogaerts will be 41 years old. And while it is impossible to project the possible regression of players as they age accurately, it is valid to assume that Bogaerts’ offensive and defensive production will diminish as he passes his mid-30s.
Although Xander Bogaerts is bound to regress as his contract continues, the aggressive “win-now” mentality of the Padres frames this decision as a long-term cost of dominance in the present. The acquisition of Bogaerts was surprising partly because of the already effective infield of the Padres. Additionally, Korean import Ha Seong Kim was tasked with replacing Fernando Tatis Jr. after his injury and subsequent suspension. This resulted in a career year where Kim displayed above-average offense to supplement his exceptional defense. With Tatis on the way to recovery and Bogaerts joining the team in free agency, the Padres are tasked with reorganizing their lineup, most likely resulting in a player being pushed out of their natural position.
The San Diego Padres are set to be an explosive offensive team in 2023. With the recent trade acquisition, Juan Soto looking to bounce back from a relatively mediocre 2022 campaign, and the exceptional bat of Tatis slotting back into the lineup, the addition of Xander Bogaerts makes this team all the more deadly. Despite the shadow of doubt that may loom over the Padres for this decision, it is no doubt that this San Diego team will be not only a contender but also perhaps the most entertaining team in baseball.
