Here’s my assessment of Week 17 contests–graded, what to watch, and with implications for Week 18 and the overall playoff picture.
Arizona Cardinals (4-11) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-10): F
This is the only game where both teams are eliminated from playoff contention, so it gets the lone F-grade of the week. The Cardinals have been playing backup quarterbacks since Kyler Murray was hurt in Week 14, and third-stringer Trace McSorely struggled mightily against the Bucs last week. Colt McCoy will be back for the Cardinals this week, bringing more stability, but this is a bad team playing out the string. The Falcons are the only team eliminated from the NFC South race, and they will be starting rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder for the third straight week. Ridder was better last week than he was in his first start (85.2 QB rating vs. 59.3) and will have the previous two weeks to show Atlanta that he is worth rolling forward with next season. The Falcons could be in a position to draft a quarterback, but Ridder showing poise and improvement would allow them to take the best players available and build around the young Cincinnati passer.
Possible Week 18 implications: None. These teams will just be finishing the season, and the outcome of this game will not affect anything except the draft position.
Chicago Bears (3-12) vs. Detroit Lions (7-8): C+
This is a classic example of a team needing a win against a team with nothing to play for. The Lions will undoubtedly be coming with everything, as they must win to stay alive in the playoff race. On the other hand, the Bears get a few bonus points because they can still obtain the number one pick in the draft: Chicago moves into that position with a loss and a Texans win against a Jacksonville team without a lot on the line this week. The Lions have improved on a few tough years to get within sniffing distance of the playoffs. They need to win both of their remaining games and get a little help, but this is the best the Lions have looked since Matthew Stafford was firmly entrenched as the quarterback. Detroit was torn through by the Carolina running game last week, so facing a team with Justin Fields leading the way is sub-optimal. Fields already have over 1,000 rushing yards and will add plenty to that total if the Lions don’t come in with a plan. Some argue that the Bears would benefit from losing (get that draft position!!), but Fields has looked very good at times, and Chicago would probably rather see him continue to improve and flourish rather than rack up losses. In addition, the Bears will be able to draft a premiere defensive player or trade down for extra assets no matter what happens, so playing at a high level doesn’t have much downside.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Lions are eliminated with a loss, so their season depends on beating the Bears in Detroit. They are not currently in a playoff position and need help, but a loss ends their hopes. The Bears are watching draft position at this point, so keeping Fields healthy and improving is their primary focus.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) vs. Houston Texans (2-12-1): C
This game is almost the same as the Bears/Lions game, except that Jacksonville is having much bigger fun next week. The Jaguars have a minimal chance of being a wildcard playoff team, but their fate depends on their Week 18 game when they face off against the Titans for the AFC South crown. The Texans, as mentioned above, are fighting for the number one pick in the draft. Unlike the Bears, however, they have more to gain by getting the top choice because they have no possible star quarterback on their roster. As for the Jags, Trevor Lawrence was being doubted after his rookie season, which was ludicrous but a real conversation topic. He has quieted those doubters since. The Jags are 4-1 over their last five games, and Lawrence is averaging 283 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and only one interception while adding two rushing touchdowns. His quarterback rating during that stretch has never gone below 82.6, and he had a rating over 100 in three of those games. Lawrence and his team are ascending. The Texans, again, are fighting for that number-one pick and would do well to fall to their division rival. No team, from the players, coaches, or front office, will ever admit to wanting to lose, but they can show positive flashes along the way. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil just said he wants to “reset the market” at his position, so the rebuilding Texans would be in a position to recoup premium draft picks if they would instead move him than re-sign the star. Their two-quarterback system with the passing-oriented Davis Mills and run-first Jeff Driskel is different and fun, but they are not the future.
Possible Week 18 implications: Houston’s draft position hangs in the balance, but the Jags are probably thinking ahead to next week. Jacksonville has a minimal chance of winning a wildcard if they win this week and lose next week, but that scenario will probably not play out. So next week is the shining light for the Jaguars.
Denver Broncos (4-11) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-3): C-
The Broncos are probably more ready for the season to end than any other team. They just fired their coach, their $100 million quarterback has had his worst season, and the preseason playoff hopefuls are sitting with only four wins. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are fighting for the top seed (and only bye) in the AFC after already clinching the AFC West. So seeding is the essential thing in this game. On paper, this game should be a blowout. Double digits favor the Chiefs at home, and they have every reason to play hard as they are tied for the top seed with the Bills. Buffalo holds the tiebreaker but has a challenging game against the Bengals Monday night, so the Chiefs could quickly move to the top spot with a win. The Broncos are possibly in the worst situation in the league as the season ends (and as a Raiders fan, I couldn’t be happier). That doesn’t mean the problem is terrible going into next year, though, as Denver still has a good defense, and Russell Wilson has a history of all-pro-level play. Unfortunately, the Broncos will play out the string for the next two weeks.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Chiefs will come with everything in this game to put themselves in a position to win. Their outcome and a few others could put them in place to lock up the one- or two-seed with a win next week. On the other hand, the Broncos owe their first-round pick to the Seahawks from the Russell Wilson trade, so a loss won’t help them in that department.
Miami Dolphins (8-7) vs. New England Patriots (7-8): A
While this game might not be pretty, it will have a more significant individual impact on the AFC Wildcard race than any other game this week. Miami sits alone in sixth place in the AFC, while the Patriots are tied with four different teams in position for the seventh seed. As a result, there will be a lot of teams and fanbases rooting for the Patriots (which seems wrong, doesn’t it?). Tua Tagovailoa is out again with concussion symptoms, so that Teddy Bridgewater will be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. This feels like a game where Bill Belichick’s defense keeps it low-scoring, and the Patriots eek one out. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel is a candidate for Coach of the Year, and this game might make or break his case. The question is whether he can match up with the best coach of this era when his team needs a win. The Patriots have struggled offensively, but their defensive effort has put them in a possible playoff position. According to Vegas, the Patriots are favored in a low-scoring game, and that outcome seems most likely. In addition, the weather is predicted to be fair on Sunday. That’s saying something for this time of year in Boston.
Possible Week 18 implications: This is the week’s biggest game in the AFC Wildcard race. The Dolphins have clinching scenarios this week so winning could relieve some stress going into the final week. The Patriots are eliminated with a loss, while a win would put them in control of their destiny. So this game will shape the AFC playoff picture … even if it’s ugly.
Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) vs. New York Giants (8-6-1): C
The Giants control their destiny to get into the playoffs, and the Colts are out of the race. The Giants have had ups and downs, but they are in a position to lock in their playoff spot. Their first year under Brian Daboll has gone better than expected, and getting hot going into the playoffs could put the Giants in a position to pull off an upset. But, of course, staying healthy is probably a close second on the list of priorities. The Colts are fighting with the Broncos in the scratch-and-claw toward the end of the season. Even without injuries, Nick Foles became the third quarterback to start for Indianapolis last week (after Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger). After collapsing to miss the playoffs last year, the Colts will limp through the last two weeks this season on a different down note.
Possible Week 18 implications: It’s win-and-in for the Giants. But there’s also more to the story. They could also lose and clinch a playoff spot through multiple scenarios. That means things are looking pretty good for New York. The Colts are in the draft-position hunt now, and the flipping of quarterbacks hasn’t helped them win (maybe for the best). They will play out the string for the last two weeks.
New Orleans Saints (6-9) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (13-2): C+
As good as the Eagles have been, they still play for the conference and division top seeds. As bad as the Saints have been, they are still in the hunt for their division crown if they win their last two games. It seems like it should be more critical, but the teams are on opposite ends of the playoff spectrum, with their fates almost assured. Jalen Hurts will miss his second consecutive game for the Eagles, but all reports say it is precautionary, and he could play if needed. Gardener Minshew II is a more-than-capable backup, and this overpowering Eagles team should cruise to victory over New Orleans. But we know better than to expect every favored team to win, especially when backup quarterbacks are involved. The Saints can sometimes control the ball by running, and their defense has a few stars. Still, with something to play for, the Saints should come out firing on all cylinders. Their only problem is that it might not be enough to beat this Eagles team.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Eagles win the division and lock in the number one seed if they win. They will have the same scenario next week if they lose, so this is not Philadelphia’s most important game of the season. The Saints might be eliminated even if they do win, but a loss ends their playoff hopes.
Someone must win the NFC South, and this game proves it.
Carolina Panthers (6-9) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8): A
Someone must win the NFC South, and this game proves it. The Bucs win the division with a victory, mercifully putting an end to the race and giving the division a chance at a winner over .500. The Panthers stay alive if they win, giving themselves and (possibly) the Saints something to play for in Week 18. The Bucs look terrible sometimes, but they keep finding ways to beat bad teams in the fourth quarter and overtime. They control their destiny, however, and it’s hard to ask for more at this point in the season. Getting into the playoffs is half the battle, and Tampa is in a great position to do so. Carolina fired head coach Matt Rhule several weeks into the season and has seen a mini-surge since. However, they control their destiny also and can secure the division with two victories. Interim coach Steve Wilks has gotten a lot of buzz for the permanent head coaching job, and a division title would be something more to point to. (I’m not sold on him being a lock if they win the division; would we say the same thing about an 8-9 or 7-10 record if the division winner had 12 wins and the Panthers weren’t in the race?)
Possible Week 18 implications: A Tampa Bay win locks the Bucs into the four-seed, giving them a chance to rest Tom Brady and other starters before hosting (probably) Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. On the other hand, Carolina has a chance to build on their dominating victory over the Lions last week and make Week 18 crucial for everyone involved.
Cleveland Browns (6-9) vs. Washington Commanders (7-7-1): C
Another instance of a team being out of the playoff race against a team that needs to win to keep up in the playoff race: is the perfect middle. The Commanders had a great opportunity going against the Giants while coming off a bye in Week 15. Unfortunately for Washington, they lost, putting the team in a more dire position. Washington leads three teams for the seventh seed by a half-game thanks to their tie, so they must get wins to keep their spot. Carson Wentz will be back in the starting lineup this week after replacing Tyler Heinicke in last week’s blowout, giving him one more chance to prove his worth to the organization. The Browns are trying to acclimate Deshaun Watson back into the NFL, and things haven’t gone well so far. At this point in the season, Cleveland needs to take stock of what they have and keep trying to get Watson up to an NFL level, even if he never reaches his previous heights. Cleveland’s competitive season is over, but less than three points still favor Washington at home.
Possible Week 18 implications: Washington will probably need to win both remaining games to secure their playoff spot, although they do have a path if they lose. Whether Washington wins or loses, they will likely have to win next week to make the playoffs. Cleveland owes their first-round pick to the Texans thanks to the Watson trade, so losses do not help them. Winning and seeing improvement from Watson will feel better for Cleveland fans.
San Francisco 49ers (11-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (6-9): C+
The 49ers have already won the NFC West, but they have a chance at the top seed and (more likely) second seed. They sit a game behind the Vikings for that second seed, so a win is imperative. The Raiders are still technically alive but would have to win both games and get a lot of help. As a Raiders fan, I’m not holding out hope. The Raiders benched Derek Carr, and he agreed with the team that he would step away for the rest of the season to avoid “being a distraction.” This likely signals the end of Carr’s time in Las Vegas, although the team said they could stay together next season. Backup Jarret Stidham will start, lowering the floor of the Raiders’ offense. The rest of the season will be about evaluating players to keep making the team in Josh McDaniels’s vision. The 49ers are undefeated with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy at the helm, and there’s no reason to think their run is about to stop. San Fran has playmakers on offense and defense, and that defense is about to go against a guy making his first start. This one could get ugly.
Possible Week 18 implications: The 49ers will play for seeding in Week 18 unless they lose and the Vikings win this week. The Vikings lead by one game, but the 49ers will own the team tiebreaker. San Francisco needs a win this week. The Raiders’ competitive season is over, although die-hards will hold onto that playoff hope. This will probably be their last meaningful game.
New York Jets (7-8) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-8): A-
Both teams are squarely in the playoff hunt, but neither is currently in a playoff position. That keeps them from getting the solid “A” in this game (A- instead). Still, these teams need this game to stay alive. The Jets will get Mike White back to play quarterback, relegating Zack Wilson to the inactive list again. White has been better this year and gives the Jets the best chance to win, but they will need to rely on their defense to win this game and make the playoffs. Luckily for New York, that defense will face a struggling Seattle offense. After starting hot, the Seahawks and quarterback Geno Smith have cooled off considerably, going 1-5 in its last six games, with their bye coming during that time. Seattle has only won one game since beating the Cardinals on November 6th. The good news for Seattle is that they face a team struggling on the offense with a quarterback returning from injured ribs. In addition, the Seahawks’ pass rushers will be licking their chops.
Possible Week 18 implications: This matchup looms enormous for both teams. The Jets need to win both of their remaining games (next week vs. the Bills), and they also need help. The Seahawks face the same uphill climb, making this a must-win game for both teams. This is an elimination game with a tie probably dooming both teams.
Minnesota Vikings (12-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-8): B+
Two division rivals are facing off in January with the playoffs on the line! The only problem is that the Vikings have locked up the division and are currently fighting to hold onto the two-seed. The Packers have played themselves back into the playoff picture and can make that trip with a few wins and some help. Despite their record, much has been made about the Vikings’ weak performances, and that continues to be the theme here, with the Packers favored at -3. Meaning? Everyone believes in Aaron Rodgers, and seemingly nobody believes in the Vikings. This is a chance for Minnesota to make a statement and show they are for real while knocking their most hated rival out of the playoffs. The Packers will continue to lean on their quarterback and defense to make timely plays and hold serve at home against an underwhelming 12-win Vikings team. A loss ends their competitive season (and maybe the Rodgers era), so Green Bay will come out with everything to stay alive going into Week 18.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Packers must win and get help. The Vikings have different paths to different seeds in the NFC playoff picture, but they have already locked up the NFC North. The 49ers will hold the tiebreaker and sit only one game behind Minnesota, so winning out and locking in two home games would be a huge boon. The top seed in the NFC is technically up for grabs if Minnesota wins out and Philadelphia loses out, but I’m not holding my breath for that outcome.
Los Angeles Rams (5-10) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6): C-
The Chargers are fighting for playoff seeding while the Rams are done, just playing out the string. My grade falls from C to C- because the Chargers have already locked up their playoff spot and are just trying to climb over the Ravens for the fifth seed. The Chargers beat Indianapolis on Monday Night Football to secure their playoff spot, but the offense underwhelmed even in a 20-3 victory. The Chargers also hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens in the playoffs, meaning they could move up to the fifth seed in the AFC. Winning this game against a beatable Rams team is a must, and the offense showing firepower would be a welcome sign. Speaking of those Rams, Baker Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise since being claimed off waivers from the Panthers. Unfortunately, the Rams have ended the season of most of their star players, leaving backups and rotation players to finish the season. Yes, the Rams scored 51 points against the Broncos last week, but Denver isn’t on the same level as the Chargers.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Chargers sit one game back of Baltimore for the fifth seed, which is increasingly essential because that top wildcard will play the AFC South champion in the first round and avoid the Bengals/Bills/Chiefs (AKA “The Triumvirate from Hell”). The Chargers have everything to play for this week. The Rams owe their first-round pick to the Lions as part of the trade for Matthew Stafford, so they will not reap the benefits of a lost season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-5): B+
This is a lot like the Vikings/Packers matchup, a division rivalry between a team fighting for seeding and a group fighting to get into the playoffs. It’s the same situation, the same stakes, and the same grade. Rookie Kenny Pickett has improved through the season for the Steelers, but it might be too little too late for this team. They have a talented defense, but the offense has let them down too often with both Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky at the helm. That being said, this is one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL, and both teams will come ready to play. The Ravens have been without Lamar Jackson since Week 13, and his lack of practice this week points to another week out of the lineup. That is bad news for Baltimore but good news for the playoff hopes of the Steelers and Chargers. The Ravens will again have to turn to backup Tyler Huntley, who has struggled to move the offense.
Possible Week 18 implications: The Steelers might be eliminated from playoff contention even with a win, but they will be fighting to beat a heated rival. Also at stake is Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons. That doesn’t mean much to the rest of the NFL, but it might to Pittsburgh. The Ravens are fighting for the division championship and playoff seeding, so they will have a big game in Week 18, no matter what the outcome of this one.
Buffalo Bills (12-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4): A-
I want to give this game an A+ because it should be fun, but my take is that the stakes aren’t as high as the entertainment. The Bengals are fighting off the Ravens at the top of the AFC North, and an extra benefit of a win would be moving into (at least) second place in the AFC with a chance for a tie at the top. The Bills currently hold the top seed and solidify that hold with a win, but they are tied with the Chiefs and cannot lose without fear of falling down the board. The Bills might be the best team in football, and they look to continue their march to the top of the AFC. Buffalo already beat the Chiefs earlier this year, and not capitalizing on the top seed would be disappointing. You can bet the Bills will bring everything to Cincinnati to beat the Bengals. Speaking of beating the Chiefs, the Bengals did the same thing several weeks back, cementing themselves as a thorn in Kansas City’s side. If Cincy wins, that will put this team in a position to possibly clinch the division (vs. Baltimore in Week 18) and fight for the one-seed in Week 18. This should be the most fun game of Week 17.
Possible Week 18 implications: A Bills win means they can clinch the one-seed in the AFC with a Chiefs loss or a win next week. But there is a downside, too: if the Bills lose this week and the Chiefs win, Buffalo will be in third place in the conference without a likely path back to the top seed. On the other hand, Cincinnati needs a win this week for top seeding. Still, their division fate might rest in a head-to-head matchup next week vs. the Ravens.
