It was quite a weekend in college football. Nine Top 25 teams went down to defeat (four in the top ten), and you know what that means.
A college football ranking shake-up is sure to be reflected in the new rankings, and that’s exactly how I saw it things at the season’s start. I felt this would be a topsy-turvy year, with the last few weeks full of unexpected results. And that’s what we have.
With Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oregon, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Mississippi, Cincinnati, and Louisville all losing over the weekend, here is where I predict things will settle in the national rankings going into Conference Championship Week.
Georgia will remain #1 ahead of Ohio State-beater Michigan, and TCU (based on its undefeated record and hammering of Iowa State) will move up to #3. USC, which beat Notre Dame on Saturday night, looks to me like #4, with Ohio State probably dropping down to #5.
What else do I see? After hammering Vandy on the road, I think Tennessee will jump ahead of Alabama to #6 with ‘Bama right behind. After all, the Vols beat the Tide a few weeks ago, and that needs to count. Penn State finished the season 10-2 after beating Michigan State at home, and I think the Lions will log in at #8.
Washington has had an impressive season (winning at Washington State yesterday) and has one game remaining, the PAC-12 championship game versus Utah, on tap next Saturday. I have UDub at #9, with Clemson (loser at home to South Carolina) dropping down to #10, followed by Kansas State (TCU’s Big 12 championship foe) and Utah at #11 and #12, respectively.
And look at Tulane! The Green Wave had its best season since the team went 12-0 in 1998. Still, though, I think tougher competition puts LSU at #13 and Oregon at #14, with TU following at #15. Besides, Tulane has to get past UCF next weekend in the American Conference Championship game, and I have UCF at #19.
Florida State seems back in the thick of things (beating rival Florida on Saturday helps in that regard), and I have them at #16 with another rejuvenated program–UCLA–at #17.
Unexpected weekend losses–UNC to rival NC State, and Ole Miss to rival Mississippi State–drop those teams in the rankings, and that makes way for Oregon State at #18 and UCF. UNC moves down to #20, and Notre Dame drops to #21 or #22, depending on where Texas lands. The final spots will likely go to NC State, South Carolina, and possibly Cincinnati or Ole Miss.
Cincinnati’s loss makes them 9-3, whereas Ole Miss’s loss drops them to 8-4. It’s easy to recognize how UNC’s 9-3 record is different than UCLA’s 9-3 record because UNC is coming off a loss while UCLA is coming off a victory against rival (albeit weak) Cal.
It’s a merit-based system where teams are rewarded or punished for late seasons victories or losses. I think NC State and South Carolina deserve recognition for their wins and should be in the Top 25.
Consider the crests and troughs of emotion for these teams and their fans. It’s all exciting in my book.
