Size Matters in College Football (Size of Fan Base, that is)

Numbers drive the sport—not passing yards or defensive stats—but commercial numbers. Generate those numbers and get big paydays. Advertisers will pay the media, and the media will pay schools/conferences. Bottom line? College football has become a proxy for the corporate sector. 

If there is one thing that characterizes major college football these days, it’s this: money (revenue, to be specific) drives decision-making. And big money comes by way of selling media rights. With new media contracts being negotiated, it’s no surprise that we’re seeing a flurry of conference re-alignments as conferences jockey for financial positioning.

It started anew when the Southeastern Conference plucked Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12, and it picked up steam when the most unlikely of conversions took place–two Los Angeles schools, USC and UCLA, moving to the Big 10.

That’s where size matters. Fan base size is an important stat, and big is important–critical is a better word–in a world where the number of eyeballs on teams is high gear speed in college football. One analysis of the football numbers comes from AltimoreCollins, which recently released a study of 130 major college football programs. Here are a few of the findings.

The New SEC (courtesy YouTube)

Across 130 schools, 50% of all major college football fans cheer for 16 teams. In alphabetical order, the list includes Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Southern Cal, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin.

50% of those fans (N=8 of 16 schools) root for teams in one conference, the Southeastern Conference. The SEC is the kingpin of college football, combining athletic and financial clout.

Only one of the “Power 5” conferences doesn’t have a team on that list. It’s the Big 12, the conference that has lost the most teams to conference re-alignment–Nebraska to the Big 10, Colorado to the PAC-12, and Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma to the SEC. Only two sustaining schools (members before and after re-alignment) have an estimated fan base of over 1 million–Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Only two Big 12 newcomers have sizable fan bases–West Virginia (nearly 2 million fans) and BYU (a bit over 1 million fans). Newbies Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati may bring competitive strength, but they do not have large fan bases. That’s a concern because several of the existing Big 12 teams–Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and TCU–are in the same category. The bottom line? No major conference has done more subtraction by addition than the Big 12. And while that assertion has nothing to do with quality on the field, it hurts in today’s environment where conferences and schools chase dollars.

Courtesy SwimSwam

Will the PAC-12 survive? USC (nearly 5 million fans) and UCLA (about 2.5 million fans) have left for the Big Ten. Of the remaining PAC-12 teams, Oregon is the prize franchise with the largest football fan base on the West Coast (5.5 million). If the Ducks leave the conference (UO has the Big 10 in its sights, and the Big 12 is after the Ducks, too), it is unclear how the conference continues…at least as a Power 5 enterprise. San Diego State is mentioned frequently as a conference target. But, again, from a fan base perspective, the Aztecs’ fan base is small, about half a million in size. SDSU is not even the largest fan base in its current conference, the Mountain West, where Boise State and Fresno State are on top. Another PAC-12 target, Air Force, also has a small fan base (about a quarter of a million). There’s another challenge, too. The PAC-12 prides itself on its national academic profile. Three of the country’s top-ranked schools academically–UCLA and Berkeley on the public side and Stanford on the private side–are (or were) PAC-12 members. But except for AFA, the PAC-12 has limited options on the high-end academic quality front.

While the Atlantic Coast Conference has loads of academic quality and is the largest conference by membership, it also has fan base issues. One reason is that the ACC has more private schools than the other Power 5 conferences combined (N=6), and six conference programs overall (private and public) have <1 million fans each. There is a small-number Wake Forest and NC State for every big-number Syracuse and Miami. Moreover, because generally high-quality academic schools constitute the ACC (e.g., UNC, UVA, Duke), the ACC could be a target for the academically exclusive Big 10 should BIG decide to expand to 20 schools. And, because of geographic location, ACC schools are a short reach (and grab) for the SEC.

Another data set worth reviewing is generated by SkullSparks. Social media are the focus of this study, namely (in what I’ll share here) social media interactions generated on three platforms, Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook, from January 1-December 31, 2021, and the difference in those numbers (total across platforms) for the same period in 2020.

Courtesy: Pixelstalk.Net

SEC is the Instagram king, even though Ohio State is #1. Six SEC teams are in the top ten–Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas. Michigan and Penn State join OSU from the Big Ten. ND rounds out the top echelon. It’s a closed club, especially for younger fans who populate this platform.

Ohio State is also the Twitter king. And the list is pretty much the same as above, except that Michigan State (with its surprising 2021 season) gained considerable ground, getting a spot in the top 10. Tennessee did the same. Penn State dropped out.

Traditional Facebook—what older Americans favor…. Alabama, Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State took the top spots, but it was the #1 Tide by a landslide.

Winners and losers – no surprise. How does on-the-field performance influence social media use? A lot, as you might expect. MSU’s across-platform interaction numbers topped the country with a 154% increase from 2020. Also having good years on the gridiron, Iowa was +140%, and Oklahoma State was +100%. Big losers were Clemson (-12%, didn’t play for a national championship), Florida (-26%, 6-7 on the year), and LSU (43%, 6-7 on the year).

The flip side to all the good things (and money flow) is also something that AltimoreCollins follows. That is, which teams could be trending downward. AltimoreCollins identified these five programs.

Bay Area Blah, Stanford, and Cal. Three reasons (among others) loom large: Northern Californians don’t live and breathe college football, the academic emphasis at these San Francisco-area schools is “unreachable” (quote) for the general population, and neither team has won big recently. Those factors (and more) make Stanford–and especially Cal–less attractive in the media world and in the conference re-alignment sweepstakes.

Courtesy Twitter and U of Miami

SoFlo Malaise. Once a national powerhouse, Miami hasn’t been a national factor for decades. Like the situation on the other coast, there are attractive alternatives to following college football around Miami Beach. Besides, if you seek to be nationally competitive, a school’s administration must set football as a priority. Is that the case in Coral Gables? Probably not. No on-campus stadium hurts, too.

Preppy UVA Doesn’t Spell Football Success. Many in the most recent generation of VA-MD-DC football fans turned to Virginia Tech, among other teams, to follow. UVA football has been mediocre, and the school isn’t in sync with its surrounding rural Virginia’s population base. UVA basketball, sure? UVA football? Not so much.

Not Your Grandfather’s Michigan. UM can’t beat Ohio State consistently, and the followership gap between UM and OSU has widened in OSU’s favor. Worse yet (if that’s possible), MSU’s recent head-to-head success v. Blue means UM may now be MSU’s “Little Brother.” And much like UVA, Stanford, and Cal, UM’s national brand doesn’t align with demographics statewide, which has become (direct quote) “more conservative, rural, and reactionary.” Holy, Bo!

Bottom Line: More Eyeballs, More Money

What can we make of the data? They point in the same direction. BIG is better. Getting bigger is best. And don’t backslide. Numbers drive the sport—not passing yards or defensive stats—but commercial numbers. Generate those numbers and get big paydays. Advertisers will pay the media, and the media will pay schools/conferences.

Bottom line? College football has become a proxy for the corporate sector. Those in charge at major conferences and schools have taken the bait and are on the hook in a 24/7 scramble to compete.

MSU’s betting partner

Mo’ money, Mo’ money is about the endless quest to seize $. More revenues mean more money spent in a financial arms race that is today’s major college football. The uncompromising quest for money was recently accentuated at one of my universities (Michigan State) when the school signed contracts with Three Olives Vodka and Caesars Sports Book to become “official sponsors of Spartan Athletics.”

Can you imagine? A college football team has a betting partner. You don’t need to imagine it. It’s real.

Not everybody thinks that this ‘mo money mania is good. Congress is one as some senators and representatives rue the lack of leadership shown by the NCAA. For some time, there has been talk about regulating major college athletics, but no action has been taken to date. Until recently, fans have been more concerned about on-field performance than about what is happening on the business side of the sport. But the recent re-alignment antics seem to have changed things.

For evidence, scroll through your Facebook posts, and you’ll likely find that one of the big concerns among fans is the effect conference re-alignment has on traditional rivalries. Jake Lewis, a University of Michigan fan, wrote this on Facebook: “College football was so much better back in the day when the Big Ten champ played the PAC-10 (12) champ in the Rose Bowl every year. I deeply miss that.” Eric Thomas, a University of Kansas graduate, said: “I have yet to find a local college sports fan who is free of nostalgia for the era of playing nearby rival schools, rather than super leagues crisscrossing the country for potential games of the century each week.”

Cartoonists are getting into the act, too.

John Auchter, Michigan Radio

Well, that happens when you sacrifice your soul to the market. You are no longer in charge because the market takes you where it will, and you become a slave to the numbers, focusing on winning that game.

And the goalposts keep moving. The Big 10, PAC-12, and ACC formed an alliance last year to protect themselves against the SEC. It didn’t last—and couldn’t last—after two PAC-12 schools bolted for the Big 10. The weakened Big 12 wasn’t included in that collaboration. Still, it is responding in like manner, reportedly “going aggressively after” six current PAC-12 schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, and possibly Oregon and Washington) to join what used to be (but no longer is) a Midlands league. (The Big Ten is said to be after Oregon and Washington, too.)

Four or six PAC-12 teams migrating to the Big 12? (photo, writeforcalifornia.com)

Will it never end? Probably not. Indeed, we seem to be witnessing a death match in major college football with the Big 10 and SEC each expanding to 20 teams each. And it’s anybody’s guess what might happen to the PAC-12, ACC, and Big 12. After bolting and poaching are complete, one or more of those conferences may end up as relics of a college football that once was.

One reason more leads to more and then more is the nature of the people who are in charge. Those appointed as conference heads and athletic directors these days are likely to be media/marketing and other corporate types. Here are two examples.

–George Kliavkoff, the PAC-12 Commissioner since July of last year, was previously president of entertainment and sports for MGM Resorts International, where he was responsible for the operations, finance, strategy, booking, marketing, sponsorships, and ticketing for MGM Resorts’ more than 35 theaters, showrooms, and arenas.

–The new Big 12 Commissioner, Brett Yormack, who was appointed just a few weeks ago, came to the conference from Roc Nation, an entertainment agency founded by entertainer Jay-Z, where he served as a chief operating officer and co-CEO of Roc Nation Unified, the commercial side of the business.

These guys are being hired to play and win at that game. It’s a sad commentary about where the sport is and where it is going. But make no mistake, presidents and chancellors at major schools are “all in.” Just check out the public record. For example, not one Big Ten university head voted ‘no’ to the new cross-country affiliation with UCLA and USC. Not one. It’s all good, especially because pre-existing Big 10 schools won’t have to compete with their new conference rivals in water polo and beach volleyball. (I’m serious. It’s in the agreement.)

Is big better? Not in my book. It’s corrupting the sport.