I use Kevin Pelton’s Draft Value Chart to speculate about what might happen in Thursday night’s NBA Draft.
The NFL Draft is one of the biggest non-game events of the year, and the trades and unpredictability are a big part of the reason. The NBA Draft does not bring quite the same audience, but the single-night event has excitement just the same with many trades, though it’s hard to keep up when prospects don the wrong hats throughout the night.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN created a draft value chart several years back and intended for it to function like the ones more popularly known in the NFL (while acknowledging it wasn’t the same accuracy). (NOTE: He did release a version to reflect salary increases in 2018, and there are other value charts, but this one will give a good look at the approximate value of the picks throughout the draft will be fun to look at the trades that go down this year and see how they match up with any value charts. )
He updated the chart in 2017, which is the tool I am using for this exercise. I wanted to look at teams with multiple first-rounders and what it would look like if those teams packaged picks to move up. I also explored a few scenarios to see what a common haul might look lots.
NBA.com
The First Overall Pick: This is tricky because every year is different. In a year with a clear number one franchise-changer, like LeBron, Blake Griffin, or Karl-Anthony Towns, the top pick is worth more than a team could ever give up in draft picks. The chart works better in years when it’s less clear who the top player is, like 2013 with Anthony Bennett or even 2020 with Anthony Edwards.
The Celtics have come out way ahead in the trade by ending up with Jayson Tatum instead of Markelle Fultz, but how did that trade line up with the Pelton chart? The top pick was last traded in 2017. Philadelphia sent the third overall pick that year and a future first-rounder, which ended up as the 14th pick in 2019. Future picks are hard to put a value on within the chart, but valuing that pick as 14th is right at the end of the lottery and a fair middle ground.
The possible value of the future pick puts a lot of variance in the outcome depending on when the pick conveys and what number it becomes so that a trade could swing either direction depending on future picks. Pelton’s chart puts the first pick at 4000 points, the third at 2670, and the 14th at 1320. That means the Sixers got 4000 points worth of value, while the Celtics got 3990 in return; almost a perfect match.
As an example, if that future pick (which originally belonged to the Sacramento Kings) ended up at the fifth overall pick (2240 points), the Celtics would have returned 4910 points; the 25th pick (700 points) would give the Celtics 2170 total. The value changes greatly, and the “winner” of the trade would swing pretty wildly in the average trade.
Kevin Pelton (photo, Twitter)
Oklahoma City Thunder: Speaking of that first pick, the Thunder are an interesting look at a team moving up. With the second overall pick worth 3100, the Thunder must make up 900 points. They can’t make a straight match by holding the 12th pick (1500 points) and the 34th pick (320 points). That 900-point threshold comes between the 21st and 22nd pick. Given that the Thunder are loaded with future picks, they could put together a number of different packages to make things work. OKC is more likely to be moving around the board elsewhere, though, and the 320 points of the 34th pick is important to look at. Every team’s second-round pick(s) are a good barometer of where they could easily move, and 1820 points (from the 12th and 34th together) end up right below 1830 of the ninth pick. If the Thunder want to move up to target a player, they could expect to get up to the 10th pick without issue, and maybe even to nine.
Charlotte Hornets: The Hornets have the picks before and after the end of the lottery, 13 (1400 points) and 15 (1240), giving them a chance to move higher if they find somebody they like or someone starts to slide. The combined 2640 points fall under the third pick, so the Hornets have the ammo necessary to target a player and pounce. Charlotte also has the 45th pick (190 points), allowing them to maneuver at different spots. The extra value of the 45th pick could get the Hornets from 13 to either 11 or 12, or they could get from 15th to 14th to get back-to-back players at the end of the lottery.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have numbers 20 (980), 25 (700), and 38 (270) on top of their own first-rounder at nine (1830). The Spurs have earned some benefit of the doubt by finding talent at all draft stages, from Tim Duncan first overall to second-round contributors and stars like Manu Ginobili. A few quick Spurs mix-and-match points. Numbers 20 and 25 combine to fall between the 10th and 11th pick; Nine and 20 together are more than the third pick, while nine and 25 get above the fourth; Nine and 38 get close to number six, while 38 could advance either 20 or 25 about five or six spots. The Spurs feel like the Patriots of the NBA, not just because Popovich is dry and a jerk. It could be a lot of fun to watch what the Spurs do to target players and how many of their three first-rounders they actually use. Keep an eye on San Antonio.
Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies will be interesting to watch because they had a breakout season and come into the draft armed with picks to make moves for draft positions or veterans to help now. Picks 22 (860), 29 (520), and 47 (170) give them a similar ability to move around the board in the mid-to-late first round like the Spurs, and the three picks together add up to between the 11th and 12th picks. Memphis can go after an impact player and early contributor if they find one in the late lottery. Finding the right player(s) will help determine if the Grizzlies can keep growing into legit contenders.
A few other notes:
1000 Logos, NBA. and Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets are another team with two first-round picks: three (2670) and 17 (1130). Those two add up to get close to the number needed for the number one pick, but the top three seem pretty set from all accounts.
Minnesota Timberwolves have only one first-rounder, at 19, but they have three second-round picks (40, 48, 50). Those second-rounders add up to a late-first-round pick, so the Wolves have a chance to move around the board and add talent to continue growing.
Orlando Magic: Besides having the top overall pick, the Magic also have numbers 32 and 35. Those two picks together could allow the Magic to move up and add another first-round talent, which could move up the team’s timeline more than two lower-level players.
Denver Nuggets: They added another first-round pick in a trade with the Thunder and now have the 21st and 30th picks. Numbers 21 and 30 combine to equal almost the 13th pick. They could add two players, but moving up for a more impactful player could make sense based on the Nuggets’ status as a possible contender.
One last note: players are also involved in trade talks, of course, so differences can be made up in value by including a veteran. Big names will likely be on the move, as rumors have been swirling, and we could see some big changes in the league’s landscape on Thursday night. Some teams are more equipped than others to move players, and combinations of each and money will be traded in all directions on draft night.
No matter what happens, remember to sit back, have fun, and enjoy the draft!
Thank you
Very interesting