In this fourth installment, I make First Round picks in games involving nine Mid-Majors that ended up in my final pool.
NOTE: Please refer to Monday’s article for background regarding how these teams (and not others) got here.
Wednesday
#16 Bryant (NET 200) v. #16 Wright State (NET 191) (WSU -3. 55% chance of winning), Bryant to win. Yes, it’s a trendy (and risky) pick, but I’ve been following Bryant and Peter Kiss, the nation’s leading scorer, all year long. Kiss, a big guard (6’5″), is a Rutgers transfer out of New York City. He is the real deal, too, at 25 PPG, 6 RPG, and 3 APG. He gets help from running mates (both guards) Charles Pride and Adam Eleeda, who, as a threesome, fill it up for nearly 54 points a game. Bryant plays against lower-level competition, but WSU (Horizon League) doesn’t exactly play in the Big Ten. The NET rankings (above) reveal these two clubs aren’t far apart.
Thursday
South Dakota State’s Baylor Scheierman (photo SDSU Athletics)
#13 South Dakota State (NET 65) v. #4 Providence (NET 33) (PC -2, 60% chance of winning). Jackrabbits to win. In Brookings, it’s the W & S Show, Douglas Wilson (17 PPG), and Baylor Scheierman (16 PPG, 8 RPG). That combo has SDSU on the nation’s longest winning streak of 21 games. Yes, it’s Summit League mainly, but State is a solid program that has been very good for a long time (I loved Mike Daum at center). It’s time for the Jacks to cash in and win that elusive big game. The Big East regular-season champ won’t be easy against an equally solid PC. Knocking, knocking. Will the door open Thursday?
#16 Norfolk State (NET 156) v. @1 Baylor (NET 4) (BU -21, 97% chance of winning). Baylor to win but not cover. Twenty-one points, that’s a lot of points, but then again, why not? This is big-time Baylor v. little-mentioned Norfolk from the MEAC. It’s my longest longshot of 2022. The Spartans rely on Joe Bryant Jr., a big-time player with pro potential. I’m banking on Bryant Jr. playing well enough to keep this game under 21 points. That said, it’s one just Spartan against a sleuth of Bears (that’s right, look it up), who are the NCAA defending national champ. Big breath, Norfolk. You need to be the Little Engine that did.
#12 North Mexico State (NET 79) v. Connecticut (NET 16) (UConn -7, 90% chance of winning). UConn doesn’t cover, and Aggies could pull a Round 1 upset. I’ve been following the Aggies for years, and, just like with SDSU, I’ve been waiting for this program to score a big upset in The Big Dance. If this is the year, it may be because the Aggies have wandering Teddy Allen (NMSU is his fifth college destination) on the roster. Allen is a basketball magician who scores at a 20 PPG clip. Oh, he’s the team’s leading rebounder (7 a game), too, and he dishes out three assists a game. The problem with the Aggies is they over-rely on Allen. The team only gets double-digit scoring from one other player, the guy with college basketball’s best name, Sir Jabari Rice (12 PPG, 40% FG%). UConn is a formidable but flukey team that can look like a world-beater one night (e.g., Auburn) and plays like an also-ran the next (e.g., WVU). To win, the Aggies can’t allow UConn runs, and Allen will need to play as he did against Abilene Christion (view the video that follows). Go get ’em, Teddy!
#5 St. Mary’s (NET 19) v. #12 Indiana (NET 39) (SMC -3.0, 58% of winning). Gaels to win and cover. It can’t help lift the caliber of play when you have a national power playing in your league. For years, SMC has been Gonzaga’s primary threat, joined by the Dons of San Francisco this year. The Gaels have recruited players who fit the system and play disciplined ball. No stars here, only consistent performers with four double-digit scorers–Matthias Tass, Tommy Kuhse, Logan Johnson, and Alex Ducas, who combine for nearly 50 points a game. They are solid assist players, too, on a team that doesn’t score many points (69.8 PPG) but doesn’t give up a lot of points either (12th nationally at 61 PPG). Then, there is the opponent, Indiana. IU is playing better these days. It could have gone all the way to the Big Ten championship game (edged out in the semifinal by Purdue after leading most of the game). But these Hoosiers are an inconsistent bunch, and I think that explains the +3 odds. The Gaels have earned their Top Twenty Net (#19). Against IU, the nation will get a chance to see why. One thing is for sure. You can bet Matthew Dellavedova, former SMC star and NBA player, will be watching from Down Under.
#10 San Francisco (NET 22) v. #7 Murray State (NET 21) (MSU -1.5, 54% chance of winning). MSU will win going away. I hate it when two of my Mid-Major picks go against each other, and that’s what we have in this match-up. The Dons have their best team in years, perhaps decades. Remember Bill Russell? Jamaree Boyea isn’t that, but he’s a solid player who hits nearly half of his shots, and he’s also the team’s assist leader. USF is a great academic school, too. BUT, how about those Racers! K.J. Williams is a crafty scorer who also leads the teams in rebounds. He gets plenty of help from teammates Tevin Brown and Justice Hill. This 30-win team is on a 20-game winning streak and has Sweet 16 written all over it. It will be a big surprise if Murray is taken out in the First Round. With shades of Popeye Jones and Ja Morant, these Racers are back in the national limelight.
Friday
#10 Loyola (NET 23) v. Ohio State (NET 26) (Even, OSU 52% chance of winning). Ramblers to win. Loyola has been on my watchlist all year, mainly because they began the season on a tear against non-conference opponents, beating Florida Gulf Coast, Arizona State, Vanderbilt, and San Francisco while losing narrowly to Michigan State and Auburn. After starting the Missouri Valley season strong, the Ramblers went into a mid-season funk, losing games to Missouri State, Bradley, and Drake. LUC recovered, though, steaming its way to the MVC tournament championship. Now, the Buckeyes are the next and immediate challenge. To win, Lucas Williamson (leading scorer 14 PPG and rebounder 5 RPG) and Braden Norris (assist leader at 4 APG) will have to have solid nights, and at least one other Rambler will need to step up big-time. That could be sharpshooter Ryan Schwieger. You know that Sister Jean is praying for all of that to happen–and more–against a talented but maddeningly inconsistent State team, which has lost four of its last five games. Losing by eight to Nebraska at home?! Really? Well, on Friday the nation will be rooting for Loyola. (Here’s a tip for gamblers: Vegas has 156 as the Over/Under on how many times CBS will cut away to show Sister Jean.)
Courtesy Davidson Athletics
#10 Davidson (NET 38) v. #7 Michigan State (NET 36) (MSU -1.5), 55% chance of winning). MSU will get a scare, but the Spartans will win and cover in the end. Please don’t say I’m a homer even though I worked at State and am a Spartan fan (four decades worth). That said, those who have been following my writing know I’ve been high on the Wildcats all year long, ranking DC consistently as a top-three Mid-Major. I like Davidson’s “Big Three,” namely, guards Foster Loyer (an MSU transfer, by the way) and Hyunjungg Lee, as well as big man Luca Brajkovic. The regular-season A-10 winner lost the conference tourney championship largely because Loyer and Lee (33 PPG scorers total) had bad shooting nights (2 of 16 total from the floor). It’s unlikely that they will have a second consecutive down game. That said (and even with Loyer briefing the ‘Cats on all of Tom Izzo’s trade secrets), I don’t see DC being able to handle the Spartans’ athleticism (Hoggard, Christie, and Hall) and length (Brown, Marble, and Bingham). For the Spartans, destiny awaits (again) v. Duke on Sunday. (This is a bad draw for the Wildcats.)
