Lions & Tigers & Bears? Of course! But what about Rabbits, Racers, and Gaels? Oh yeah!
Each March, teams you don’t follow or even know much about grab headlines. Last year, I correctly picked Loyola of Chicago to upset Georgia Tech and Abilene Christian to handle Texas. And I forecast the possibility of Iowa failing to cover the spread against Grand Canyon and for Florida State to underachieve against UNC Greensboro. I was right in both cases. That said, I don’t get every pick right. I was 33% on target in 2021 and 54% correct in 2019. (COVID wiped out March Madness 2020). Remember, I only pick lesser-known teams to beat major teams.
So what might happen this year? On January 23, I shared the first stab at an answer. I looked at teams playing in 23 Mid-Major basketball conferences–conferences like the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, Big West, and Western Athletic. I wrote then that I especially like three Mid-Major teams in the Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament–Davidson (Atlantic 10), Loyola of Chicago (Missouri Valley), and Iona (Metro Atlantic). What do I think of these teams today?
Davidson was 16-2 on January 23, and the Wildcats were 25-4 on March 3. Davidson has a three-pronged attack in Hyunjung Lee (scoring), Luka Brajkovic (rebounding), and Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer (assists). Brajkovic and Loyer are also double-digit scorers. The bad news is that Loyer has been out of the lineup recently with lower back issues. The immediate challenge for Davidson comes from conference rivals VCU (eight-game winning streak) and two other dangerous A-10 teams, Dayton and St. Bonaventure.
Isiaih Mosley dropped 40 on the road at Loyola (photo, Yahoo!)
Holy, Loyola! The once 14-3 Ramblers have gone 8-5 since, and they are currently in a three-way tie for second place behind former Bracket Buster, Northern Iowa, a team that made headlines with its 2010 tournament win against Kansas. But I’m not picking the Panthers to survive the conference tournament. If it’s not LUC, I think it will be Missouri State or Drake. MSU has a sold record of winning away from home, and the Bears have Isiaih Mosely (20 ppg) at the helm. Drake (after excelling last year) has tournament experience at this time of year.
Rick Pitino. That’s the name that bubbles to the top when you say, Iona. Back in January, the Gaels were 15-3 (7-0 in the Metro Atlantic Conference), and they’ve kept the pedal to the metal since going 24-6 overall 16-3 in the conference as of today. Earlier this year, Pitino and crew beat Alabama, gave Kansas a good run, and almost knocked off Saint Louis. They also handled mid-major peers Harvard, Liberty, Yale, Delaware, and Belmont. A well-balanced team led by “The J’s–Jolly in points, Joseph in rebounds, and Joiner in assists–Iona is a good bet to win its conference and get into The Big Dance. Watch this team!
Other teams on my watchlist in January include Princeton and New Mexico State. Both teams will face stern tests in their respective tournaments. The Tigers (21-5, 11-2 in the Ivy League) need to watch out for Yale, Harvard, and Penn. Meanwhile, the Aggies (23-6 and 13-4 WAC) have a penchant for losing when they are expected to win (e.g., recently to 7-23 Chicago State). Two teams are primed to block NMSU’s path to the Big Dance–giant-slayer Stephen F. Austin (21-8 and on a nine-game winning streak) and Grand Canyon (20-7), a 2021 Cinderella.
KJ Williams (photo, ABC News)
Still another team I mentioned in late January is Murray State (28-2, 18-0 in the Oho Valley), a team that’s riding an 18-game winning streak. The Racers are outstanding, and they are getting plenty of competition in the revamped OVC, including two teams I follow and have mentioned previously, namely, always dangerous Belmont and newly competitive Morehead State. But, no doubt, MSU is the class of the Valley. K.J. Williams (18+ points and 8+ rebounds a game) could carry this team into the Sweet Sixteen.
Other teams that I mentioned in late January now carry tepid interest at my end. My earlier pick UNC Wilmington (Colonial, 24-7), has plenty of league competition from Delaware, Towson, and James Madison. Meanwhile, Toledo (24-6) and Ohio (23-7), of the Mid-American Conference, have competition, too, especially from hard-charging Kent. The Golden Flashes (20-9), winners of 11 straight games, often play best when all the marbles are on the line. And don’t count out Buffalo, an always tough out at MAC tournament time.
Another team to watch is South Dakota State. This perennial personal favorite is on an 18-game winning streak. Baylor Scheierman does it all for the Jackrabbits–16+ points, 8+ rebounds, and nearly five assists a game. At 27-4 overall and 18-0 in the Summit, SDSU owns the league this year. But the problem with the Jacks in years past is that they disappoint, never getting over the hump and winning the big game. Let’s see if 2022 is different.
Peter Kiss (photo, NJ.com)
Finally, two teams are my LONGSHOTS OF THE LONGSHOTS. I mentioned these teams in January, and they are still on my radar screen–Norfolk State (MEAC, 20-6 and 11-2 in the conference, with leading scorer Joe Bryant) and Wagner (Northeast, 20-5 and 15-3 in the conference with leading scorer and rebounder, Alex Morales). Both teams play in the lowest tire of Mid-Major conferences.
While I’m still picking the Spartans to win the MEAC tournament, Bryant (20-9, 16-2) has overtaken Wagner in the NEC. The Bulldogs are led by D1’s leading scorer, Peter Kiss, a Rutgers transfer, who is tickling the twine at a 25.1 per game rate and averaging five assists a game, too.
Don’t be surprised if you hear the name Bryant in the next few weeks.
Briefs on the Other Mid-Major Conferences
Atlantic Sun: The A-Sun is the most disappointing of the conference non-selections. I’ve been excited in the past about FGCU and Liberty, and I believe newcomer Eastern Kentucky adds strength to the conference, but I can’t pick any of those teams to surprise in March this year.
America East: Vermont has been on my watchlist for years, and the Catamounts are 25-5 (17-1 conference), but the America East is a weak second-tier Mid-Major league (six teams have losing records). Tradition aside, I can’t go with UVM in 2022.
Big Sky: Montana State, perhaps, and even Weber State and newcomer Southern Utah, but there’s just not enough in Big Sky Country to get me excited about a team scoring a first-round upset.
Big South: It’s ditto for the Big South. Winthrop is perennially on my radar, but not in ’22. Longwood, a perennial loser, has flipped the script. But still….
Big West: Oh, my! This league was awful against non-league competition. Leader Long Beach State has a 17-11 overall record. Past picks UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine are having mediocre years. Pass.
Horizon: This may be my first year without picking an HL team to watch. Last year’s pick, Wright State, is 19-13. Another previous favorite, Northern Kentucky, is 19-11. League-leading Cleveland State is only 15-6 in the league, 20-9 overall. CSU maybe ….
Patriot: Only four conference teams have winning records. I’ve picked Colgate in the past but I can’t pick the Red Raiders or any other team this March.
SWAC: League-leading Alcorn State has an overall losing record. ‘Nuff said.
Southern: This is a league that I’ve turned to just about every year, but there are slim pickings this year. I took a hard look at Furman, UNC Greensboro. UT-Chattanooga, and Duke-slayer Mercer, too. Nothing there.
Southland: New Orleans looks to be the cream of this thin crop.
Sun Belt: Conference realignment has helped Sun Belt football, but the Belt is just not a basketball conference. No excitement here.
West Coast Conference: Then there is the West Coast Conference. Excuse me while I turn away and (well) S-C-R-E-A-M! The WCC is a Mid-Major conference. Of that, there is no question. Perennial champ Gonzaga is NOT a Mid-Major team. BYU is a major school, too, and it’s leaving soon for the Big 12. What’s left? All are Mid-Major teams. Of those, the best of the lot are 24-6 St. Mary’s (frequently in the Big Dance) and 23-8 San Francisco (former national champ that is flexing its muscles again). I like both teams. Let’s see if either wins the WCC or gets an at-large bid. As for the Zags, they need a bigger sandbox.
So, that’s it. I’ll be back soon after Selection Sunday to give five-to-ten Mid-Major picks in the tournament’s first round.
