For me, March Madness is over. That’s because I focus exclusively on Mid-Major teams that might spring first-round upsets. Based on a season-long scan, I identify teams of interest and then make calls on first-round games. Here’s how I did this year.
The answer is 50% (four of eight games picked correctly). That outcome is between 33% accuracy in 2021 and 54% right calls made in 2019. (No tournament was played in 2020.)
As I’ve written previously, teams off my radar can and do succeed, and Richmond and St. Peter’s are examples this year. I looked at both teams all season long but didn’t pick either of them to surprise. Instead, I went with Davidson (rather than Richmond) in the Atlantic 10 and Iona (rather than St. Peter’s) in the MAAC. But Richmond (not Davidson) sprung the big upset, beating Big 10 tournament champ Iowa, and St. Peter’s got the MAAC bid (not Iona, which went to the NIT). The Peacocks then lodged a monster first-round upset by vanquishing Kentucky. SPU followed that big win with a victory over one of my picks, Murray State. Reminiscent of #15 Florida Gulf Coast’s remarkable run in 2013, the similarly-seeded Peacocks will now take on Purdue later this week. Who would have thought that possible?
Let’s look at what went right and wrong in my nine Round 1 picks (eight games because two played each other). The teams were Bryant, South Dakota State, Norfolk State, New Mexico State, St. Mary’s, San Francisco, Murray State, Loyola, and Davidson.
The Four Wins
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#12 North Mexico State (NET 79) v. Connecticut (NET 16) (UConn -7, 90% chance of winning). I said it here last week: WATCH TEDDY ALLEN! Allen came through with 37 points, six rebounds, and three assists. The Aggies went on to beat UConn, 70-63. It was nice to see NMSU finally get a win in the NCAA tournament. The good news is that Allen will be back for his senior year unless he opts for the pros. The bad news is that Coach Chris Jans is leaving Las Cruces for Mississippi State. Still, look for the Aggies to be a WAC contender in 2023.
#5 St. Mary’s (NET 19) v. #12 Indiana (NET 39) (SMC -3.0, 58% of winning). It was the Little Engine That Could against a team that perennially underperforms. The Gaels made quick work of Indiana in what was never a game. SMC jumped out to a 40-28 halftime lead and never looked back. Four double-digit scorers made the difference, led by Logan Johnson’s 20 points. Look for the Gaels to continue contending in the WCC. IU?
#10 San Francisco (NET 22) v. #7 Murray State (NET 21) (MSU -1.5, 54% chance of winning). Two of my picks went up against each other, and I predicted MSU “would win going away.” They didn’t. In fact, the Racers were lucky to win, 92-87, in OT. A big reason is that the Dons’ Jamaree Bouyea was unreal, hitting 13-36 shots for 36 points. MSU, on the other hand, looked out-of-sorts, nothing like the 30-win team I watched during the season. Credit USF, a team that lost its coach to Florida not long after the final buzzer sounded. Yes, The Golden Years are over on The Hilltop, but the Dons will be back. MSU will be, too.
#10 Davidson (NET 38) v. #7 Michigan State (NET 36) (MSU -1.5), 55% chance of winning). I thought this was a bad draw for Davidson, and that’s why I was uber-surprised when the line flipped close to tip-off, from -1 MSU to -1.5 Davidson. The contest ended up 74-73 MSU. So, in the end, my pick prevailed. Credit much-maligned Joey Houser for that outcome. His 27 points on 9-12 shooting and 8 rebounds led the way for the Spartans. The Wildcats had four double-digit scorers, but (as in the A-10 Championship Game), Davidson didn’t get high performance when they needed it from star guards Hyunjung Lee and Foster Loyer (7-19 from the field). That said, these Wildcats will contend again in 2023.
The Four Losses
#16 Bryant (NET 200) v. #16 Wright State (NET 191) (WSU -3. 55% chance of winning). Wright State played this game a few miles from its campus in Dayton. and I knew the game would have a home-court feel to it. Still, I picked Bryant to win, largely because I thought the nation’s leading scorer, Peter Kiss, would have a field day against the so-so Raiders. To no surprise, Kiss came through with 28 points on 11-25 shooting, but WSU countered with two 20+-point scorers of its own in Tanner Holden and Trey Calvin. The Raiders prevailed 93-82 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score.
Courtesy NCAA
#13 South Dakota State (NET 65) v. #4 Providence (NET 33) (PC -2, 60% chance of winning). This was my most disappointing pick of Madness 2022. The Jacks went into the game on a nation-leading 21-game win streak, and I thought they’d give the Friars a good game. They did, but the talent differential showed. Providence-based PC has its best team in years, and they are now squarely situated (deservedly so, too) in the Sweet 16. But don’t count out SDSU for next year. The long-closed NCAA door finally opened for New Mexico State this March, and it might do the same for the Jackrabbits in March 2023.
#16 Norfolk State (NET 156) v. #1 Baylor (NET 4) (BU -21, 97% chance of winning). I knew the Spartans had no chance of winning this game, but I also thought they might keep the game relatively close. Well, in truth, I went back and forth on that choice and almost (but not quite) went with the Bears to cover. My logic? I thought Joe Bryant Jr., a big-time player with pro potential, might have a Teddy Allen-type game. He didn’t. It was easy for the Bears to focus on Bryant, Jr. (he ended up with 15 points) and gamble that his supporting cast wouldn’t come through. They didn’t. No other NSU player (starter or sub) scored in double figures, and that was that. Baylor romped 85-49.
#10 Loyola (NET 23) v. Ohio State (NET 26) (Even, OSU 52% chance of winning). Loyola had been on my watchlist all year because the Ramblers began the season on a tear against major non-conference opponents, winning versus Arizona State and Vanderbilt and losing narrowly to Michigan State and Auburn. But the Ramblers were outmatched against the Buckeyes, largely because Lucas Williamson, the player who stirs their drink, had a terrible game, going 10% from the floor with four points. Sharp-shooter Braden Norris came through with 14 points, but it was far from enough. Ohio State won by 13 points, 54-41.
With that, Sister Jean’s season … and mine … is over.
Courtesy USAToday
