I’m pleased to report that my pre-season Super Bowl picks–the Chiefs & Rams–are still alive, but I’m bummed that my post-season record is only 6-4 (60%). The game isn’t over, folks, so I’m hoping for a two-fer this week–the Chiefs and Rams advance and, if that happens, my playoff record grows to 8-4 (67%).
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Patrick Mahomes (photo, 600 ESPN El Paso)
(2) Kansas City 33, (4) Cincinnati 26 (Sunday, 3 p.m., CBS ) – I’ve said it many times before–and I’ll say it again–ever since Tom Brady left New England and that two-decade dynasty died, the Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL. KC has the early lead on “Team Of The Decade” status.
But in the salary-cap world in which this league lives, teams can improve and regress more quickly, and the Bengals are a good example. Cincinnati was 2-14 two years ago but then secured a quarterback and a few speedy receivers. Result? Cincy, now a very good team, won a division title and is in the playoffs.
But it’s the Chiefs on which my eyes are focused. KC has struggled occasionally on defense, but they have a strong pass rush, above-average special teams, and an offense as potent as any the league has seen–perhaps ever. Kansas City also has better and healthier interior line units than the Bengals.
That’s why I think the Chiefs will win this game in the trenches and on the perimeter, too, while the Bengals’ youth and speed keep them close.
Last week in Nashville, the Titans dragged the Bengals into the kind of game they wanted to play–a grind-it-out, slow, dirty, low-scoring quagmire, and it nearly paid off for them. But Ryan Tannehill made too many mistakes, which cost Tennessee in the end. Kansas City made the same kind of mistakes earlier this season, but they have long since shaken off those troubles.
Bottom line? The Chiefs are their old, quick-strike selves again, which the nation saw last week against the Bills. The Chiefs’ defense also got better this year, forcing turnovers, which is significant in a game like this, where (just like last week) one big play could make the difference.
My prediction–Chiefs by a touchdown.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Matt Stafford (photo, LA Times)
(4) Los Angeles Rams 31, (6) San Francisco 23 (Sunday, 6:30 p.m., Fox) – The 49ers have been much better on the road than at home the last few seasons. They also beat the Rams twice this year (and six straight total), including overcoming a 17-0 deficit in the season’s final week just to make the playoff field and nudge New Orleans out.
So, why am I picking the Rams? Los Angeles has shown that it has much more of a complete team. The defense is strong. There’s a veteran offensive line. Stafford is an elite QB. The roster is packed with speed and talent. Consider these names–Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, Aaron Donald, Johnny Hekker, Matt Gay, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle–and that’s only a partial list.
Yes, post-season #6-seeds have been troublesome over the years, but I predict that the ‘Niners improbable and magical run will end on Sunday.
My prediction–Rams by a touchdown
