After going 13-5 during Conference Championship Week and the first week of bowls, the record slipped to 9-9 for the Christmas and New Year bowl weeks. That’s 61% overall. Let’s look at the most recent week and what we got right and wrong. Not shy, we also predict the outcome of Monday’s national championship game.
John Revitte and I picked 11 games during New Year’s Week–games with Big Ten teams involved plus the CFP game that included two non-BIG teams.
What Went Right for Us
PJ Fleck (photo, Sports Illustrated)
We correctly picked Minnesota to win and cover against West Virginia. It turned out to be the most one-sided 12-point win (18-6) that we’ve seen in quite some time. We think that’s because WVU’s defense played well, but the Mountaineers continue to have QB issues. After the game, WVU’s Jarret Doege announced he’ll enter the transfer portal, opening an opportunity for incoming freshman Nico Marchiol, a 4-star recruit out of Arizona. As for Minnesota? Progress is undeniable under P.J. Fleck. The pattern is clear–serviceable QB play, strong O-line and rushing attack, and hardnosed defense. That’s a recipe for W’s in the Big Ten. Expect the Gophers to compete for the conference West title in 2022.
Talking about the BIG West, we got the Wisconsin-Arizona State winner right, too, in what was one of the week’s unremarkable games. But we’re not quite sure what to make of the Badgers even with the win. The 2022 opener against Illinois may tell us what to expect from UW because the non-conference schedule indeed won’t–peppered, as it is, with sure wins. Washington State, New Mexico State, and Illinois State visit Camp Randall. The closing slate–Ohio State, Iowa, and Minnesota (with only Minn at home)–is an entirely different story. Meaning? UW will win games, but what isn’t sure is how the Badgers will end up in the Big Ten West.
Picking Wake Forest to beat Rutgers, which we did, was a no-brainer. ‘Nuff said.
Cameron Rising’s TD run v. Ohio State
Our CFP picks (Alabama and Georgia) came through, too. But the one-sided wins have us shaking our heads. We’ll have more to say about this matter later in the column.
In our pre-game Ohio State-Utah analysis, we wrote, “Don’t be surprised if the final score is closer than the predicted 17-point spread. This is a really big game for Double U.” It was close, and Ohio State prevailed by the slimmest of margins (48-45), having to come from behind by 14 points twice. QB Cameron Rising’s great play–including a long-distance sideline scamper–was the primary reason Utah played well. But also give full credit to Bryson Barnes, who was Rising’s replacement when the first-stringer went out with an injury. Barnes came into the game WITHOUT ANY STATS on the year, but he gave the Utes a chance to win, going 2-2 with a 15-yard TD pass. As for OSU, the Bucks’ last two performances have us wondering what the real OSU looks like. Is it the squad that steamrolled most teams during the season? Or is it the team that gave up 90 points (total) to Michigan and Utah?
What Went Wrong for Us
We picked Virginia Tech to beat Maryland by four. The Hokies lost by 44. Is Maryland that good, or is Tech that bad? Tech played without many players (injuries and opt-outs), but we think the answer is that Tech is struggling–and certainly more than we thought when we picked the Hokies to win.
Courtesy USAToday Sports. Fort Worth
The Purdue-Tennessee outcome riled us up. Most flag football games have better defenses than what was on display. Better referring, too. The Tennessee ball carrier crossed the goal line in OT. The call that he didn’t probably cost the game the Vols (our pick).
We went with two underdogs to win–Penn State and Iowa–even though we named their struggle in our pre-game analysis: scoring. Penn State didn’t score much and lost, 24-10. Iowa did better but lost when it gave up a last-minute TD, 20-17. We’re still high on the Hawkeyes and look for them to compete for the Big Ten West crown in 2022. Penn State? As we said in our pre-game analysis, the brand outperforms the team’s on-the-field play. The Lions are 11-11 over the past two years, and they’ve appeared in only one Big Ten Championship game (2016, won).
It pained us to pick Pitt over Michigan State (we’re MSU professors emeritus), but we thought it was the right pick to make, even though Pitt would play the game with its #2 signal-caller because Heisman finalist, Kenny Pickett, had opted out of the game. But we thought a bigger issue was MSU playing without RB Kenneth Walker, who also opted out of the game. Just as we anticipated, the Spartans had trouble running the ball (56 yards total on the night),. but when Pitt’s replacement QB Nick Patti went out of the game early with a shoulder injury, we thought MSU had the game in the bag. The reason? Coming into the game, Pitt’s third-string QB, Davis Beville, had thrown only five passes all year. But the game wasn’t in the bag, largely because MSU QB Payton Thorne struggled to connect with receivers. Then, after Thorne corrected his footwork and throwing motion, he did. MSU rallied from a 21-10 deficit to win 31-21 by scoring 21 consecutive points in the final 8:06 of the game, two TDs by way of Thorne’s arm and one TD by way of a Beville INT. Victory for MSU!
Comments on the College Football Playoff
In college sports, committees pick who gets in and who doesn’t post-season tournaments. Can you imagine the pros doing that? And think about this. How accurate do you think the NCAA basketball committee would be if it picked just the Final Four teams (and not the full slate of teams) on the men’s basketball side? Thankfully, they don’t. The good news is that the Final Four teams have to win to get there.
Courtesy: WWAY-TV3.com
We think that that’s what needs to happen on the football side. Frank favors a 16-team playoff, John an 8-team format–but, in either case–the Final Four have to beat competitors to get there.
If you go with an 8-team format, you’d only need to huddle to pick three at-large teams and seed the eight teams. That’s because the Power 5 conference champs would be automatic qualifiers. With 16 teams, you can automatically include the Power 5 and Group of 5 conferences winners and have the committee select six at=large teams.
Lower-bowls would host the opening round games (rotating who hosts over time). In the eight-team format, you’d then proceed to the Final Four, just as we do now, using the same bowl-hosting election format currently. With that 8-team format, you’d only add one more weekend of games, the first of which would be held in mid-December.
In the 16-team format–just as with the 8-team format–#1 plays #16 etc., across lower-tier bowls in the opening round of eight games. The four quarterfinal games would be played in the next tier of bowls, with the opening round and the quarterfinals held in December. The semifinals and final round (three games total) would be played in January and hosted by the top bowls. The final (as it is now) would be hosted on a rotating basis.
Bottom line: Let the teams determine who’s best on the field of play.
National Championship Game Pick
Courtesy NY Post
Alabama 38, Georgia 31. -2.5 UGA and 52 points Over/Under. UGA, 60% chance of winning per ESPN’s Matchup Predictor.
In making our pick, we going with Nick Saban–plain and simple. That said, it seems strange to pick Saban, the underdog in this game.
We do think there’s a way for UGA to pull off a win, a path that was well-described by Laurentz E. Baker in his recent column. It comes by way of UGA using its running game to control the clock and minimize the time that ‘Bama’s offense is on the field.
If UGA can’t do that, then it might be a back-and-forth game with a lot of points put on the board. But that outcome favors ‘Bama.
