A regularly tough-duty assignment (sifting and sorting through mid-major teams that could make noise during the first round of March Madness) isn’t so challenging this year. There are slim pickings.
When the calendar turns–first past the Super Bowl and then the Olympics–fans across the land will engage in an annual March ritual, that is, filling out their brackets for the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament. And one of the issues will be to avoid picking against “Bracket Busters,” namely, smaller college teams that slay the Goliaths of college basketball. That happened when Mercer beat Duke, Buffalo ran past Arizona, and Middle Tennessee downed Michigan State.
Each March, teams you don’t follow (or even know much about) grab headlines and advance to the tournament’s second round. Last year, I correctly picked Loyola of Chicago to upset Georgia Tech and Abilene Christian to handle Texas. They did. And I also forecast the possibility of Iowa failing to cover the point spread against Grand Canyon (it’s a university too) and for Florida State to underachieve against UNC Greensboro. I was right in both cases. That said, I don’t get every pick right. I was 33% right in 2021 and 54% correct in 2019 (COVID wiped out March Madness 2020).
But the good news is that the task before us this March may be easier than in recent seasons. Why? I’m not sure, but it appears that there are significantly fewer teams capable of upsetting “The Big Boys.” I draw that conclusion on my analysis of pre-conference play in November and December when smaller schools played marquee schools on the road and in holiday tournaments. That’s the only time of the season (prior to the tournament) when there is an opportunity to observe smaller schools in action against major teams. And this year, there “appears” (there’s that word again) to be slim pickings when it comes to the prospect of lesser-known schools busting your bracket.
I looked at all the teams playing in 23 “mid-major” basketball conferences, that is, schools that play out of the national limelight in conferences like the Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, Big West, and the Western Athletic Conferences. What I found is that many of the smaller schools that I had picked in the past as bracket busters aren’t having good seasons, schools like Winthrop (Big South), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), and Colgate (Patriot).
Of course, anything could happen (and it often does),, but (at least for now) my list of teams to watch is much smaller than it has been in recent years. So which teams are on that list? Here are three teams to follow.
My #1 pick is Davidson College (NC) from the Atlantic 10 Conference. The Wildcats are 16-2 (as of Sunday, January 23), and they have a big win under their belt (Alabama). Davidson has a three-pronged attack in Hyunjung Lee (scoring), Luka Brajkovic (rebounding), and Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer (assists). Brajkovic and Loyer are also double-digit scorers. Davidson is a very good team.
My #2 team is Loyola of Chicago from the Missouri Valley Conference. The 14-3 Ramblers look solid. Michigan State had to rally to nip LUC by two, but Arizona State wasn’t as lucky, losing by 18, while Vanderbilt went down by 11. Playing those high-level teams will serve LUC well come tournament time. Lucas Williamson is the player to watch (he leads the team in scoring and rebounding), but teamwork sets the Ramblers apart. I recommend giving this team a long look.
At #3 on my list is an under-the-radar squad led by a brand-name coach. I’m referring to Iona College (NY) and Rick Pitino (late of Louisville). The Gaels are 15-3 and 7-0 in the Metro Atlantic Conference. Pitino and crew beat Alabama this year, gave Kansas a good run, and almost knocked off Saint Louis. They also handled mid-major peers like Harvard, Liberty, Yale, Delaware, and Belmont. Iona should win its conference and get into The Big Dance. But let’s face it: this team won’t sneak up on anybody. Rick Pitino is the reason.
Other teams on my watchlist include Princeton (15-3, Ivy League), Murrey State (17-2, Ohio Valley), and New Mexico State (16-3, Western Athletic).
Other teams I’m watching are UNC Wilmington (Colonial), both Toledo & Ohio (Mid-American), and South Dakota State (Summit). And for the longest of long shots, my list includes Norfolk State and Wagner.
I’ll return in early March with my final list of teams.
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Briefs on Other Teams on My List
Colonial: UNC Wilmington: The Seahawks are the best of the Colonial. But will “best” be good enough come late February through March? I’m not convinced that UNCW will win the conference tournament. Delaware, Towson, and James Madison, among others, will make it difficult. For now, though, the Seahawks are on an eight-game winning streak, which took them from 3-5 to 11-5 and 5-0 in the CAA.
Ivy: Princeton: I believe you always have to look at the Ivy League when making mid-major projections. Some years it’s Penn, in other years it’s Yale, and sometimes it’s Harvard. Add Princeton to the mix. This season, the Tigers are 15-3, 5-0, and winners of ten consecutive contests. They are led by Alberta product (that’s right, as in Canada) Jaelin Llewellyn, averaging 16+ points a game.
Mid-American: Toledo or Ohio: The other MAC (with a single ‘A’) is a solid, no-frills conference–a league that most people ignore until it’s tournament time. Then, you must pay attention. Remember Kent State with future NFL star Antonio Gates? Or Buffalo’s excellent run in The Big Dance? This year, neither KSU nor SUNY at Buffalo looks particularly strong, but Toledo and Ohio do. They are 29-7 overall and 12-2 in conference play. Ohio has already lost to two SEC teams (Kentucky and LSU), while Toledo went down to Michigan State. Yes, I know what that means, but (still) the MAC representative can’t be counted out automatically during the NCAA First Round, Conclusion? Watch how the season plays out and who emerges from the conference tourney. At this point, that team looks to be either UT or OU.
MEAC: Norfolk State: Who? The Spartans, that’s who. This is my (really) under-the-radar team for March 2022, especially if NSU gets a play-in game, which is likely. Right now, they are 13-4 and 4-0, but there is a problem. The MEAC (well) sucks. Every other team in the league has a losing record, which means Norfolk State won’t be pushed during the regular season or in conference tournament play. That doesn’t mean they will automatically win, but it probably means the Spartans won’t get the fine-tuning that teams need to play competitively. Guard Joe Bryant is the straw that stirs the drink. He has scored 20+ points in three of the past five games. NSU is an interesting team to follow.
Northeast: Wagner: Who #2? Yes, folks. That’s how far I had to dip this year, all the way to the typically moribund NEC, which features teams like St. Francis. (There are two, you know, SFC of New York and SFC of Pennsylvania). And just like the MEAC, the NEC lacks competition. Wagner is only one of two teams with a plus-500 record, and the other team (Bryant) is only one game above .500. So, Wagner stands out, 11-2 overall and 7-0 in the conference, and it is on a 10-game winning streak, too. Staten Island’s best hasn’t had success against high-level competition, including Penn State (lost by 20) and Seton Hall (lost by 22), but the Seahawks did beat VCU. Yeah, I know, this pick is a stretch, but it’s also a fun follow. It could be a big surprise or a big laugh. Go, Wagner!
Ohio Valley: Murray State: Now, THERE is a familiar name! It’s the MSU that Popeye Jones made famous decades ago. But Murray State is more than a historical artifact of college basketball. This year’s 17-2 version is connected to a long line of good teams and great players, as in the NBA’s Ja Morant. And this year’s Morant is a guard Tevin Brown (18 ppg). Plus, there is competition in this remade league (admittedly less than there used to be). Still, Morehead State and Belmont are nothing to sneeze at: Morehead State has emerged recently, and Belmont is a perennial power. Murray beat Memphis but lost to Auburn and East Tennessee. While this may not be a vintage Racers’ team, it’s at least one worth following.
Summit: South Dakota State: Unlike several of the other leagues (with a large number of sub-.500 teams), half of the Summitt is .550 or above. SDSU is 17-4. Only Nebraska-Omaha and North Dakota are languishing this year. Even though I know this is not the best SDSU team in recent years (Mike Daum played for the Jacks from 2015-19, and he was a terror in the middle), the ’21-22 team is still a good team in a moderately competitive league. The problem this year is that you never know which team will show up. Will it be the team that beat Nevada handily? Or will it be the team that was trounced by Idaho? Still, I think there is enough talent to give this time a continuing look.
WAC: New Mexico State: This may be the saddest story in major college athletics, the Aggies’ story. I mean. “Wanderers” may be a better name because New Mexico State–a major university, otherwise–wanders athletically and has for some time. These days it hangs out with a rag-tag bunch in the much-maligned WAC, a league that includes Dixie State, California Baptist, and Tarleton. But I’m hanging with the Aggies–and have done just that for years–including Grand Canyon University, my under-the-radar team last year. While NMSU isn’t yet on top of the WAC this year (surprising Seattle University is), I think the Aggies will prevail when all is said and done. Let’s see what happens in ’22.
My Rundown on Other Mid-Major Conferences
Atlantic Sun: This is perhaps the most disappointing of the conference non-selections. I’ve been excited in the past about FGCU and Liberty, and adding Eastern Kentucky adds nothing but strength to the conference. But I can’t pick any of those teams this time around.
America East: Vermont has been on my watchlist for years. The Catamounts are still competitive, but I don’t see UVM making noise nationally,
Big Sky: Here’s another conference that I’ve watched annually, Weber State and newcomer Southern Utah, most recently. But (there’s that word again) this year, I can’t ID a team to put on my watch list.
Big South: It’s ditto for the Big South. Winthrop is perennially on my radar, just not in ’21-22.
Big West: The repetitive message continues in the case of the Big West with one-time picks UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, and Cal State Bakersfield. Those teams are 19-21 combined at press time. Ouch!
Horizon: is there a pattern here or what? Of course, there is. Last year’s pick, Wright State, is only 11-9 this season, and my multi-year pick, Northern Kentucky, has a losing record. ‘Nuff said.
Patriot: Holy Cross! Well, that’s just for emphasis because I’ve never picked the Crusaders, but Colgate, I have. And to show you have far things have devolved, the league-leading Red Raiders have an overall record of (get this) … 7-10.
SWAC: Thanks to Deion Sanders, Jackson State is making national headlines on the football side. Are the basketball Tigers following suit? Hell, no! They are 4-13 so far this year. Florida A&M, the SWAC East leader, is 6-11 overall. Egads! Moving on….
Southern: This is a league that I’ve turned to over the years. I’m talking about teams like Furman and UNC Greensboro. Conference leaders this year are UT-Chattanooga and Furman (combined 30-11 and 12-3 in the league), but neither team has played a Top 25 team. Still, I’ll be watching those two and Mercer, too. Greensboro? The Spartans will have to win the conference tournament to get into the Big Dance (11-8 overall, 3-4 in the league).
Southland: There’s a lot of conference switching in this part of the world, and the shuffling has hurt the Southland Conference. New Orleans looks to be the cream of the crop, but it’s just not a great crop.
Sun Belt: Same picture here. Conference realignment has helped Sun Belt football, but it has hurt conference basketball.
West Coast Conference: Then there is the West Coast Conference, a league I note with an asterisk year after year. It’s because Gonzaga is a major team playing in a mid-major conference. BYU, a school in the very same category, is headed to the Big 12. None of the true mid-major affiliates look promising this year, including St. Mary’s, a team I’ve picked in the past.
