Week 14 was more like it at this end, 10-4, bringing my season hit rate to 62%. Week 15 begins the NFL homestretch with a COVID-affected schedule that spans Thursday through Tuesday.
Thursday Game
(this pick and analysis posted originally on Tu, Dec. 14)
Kansas City Chargers 31, Los Angeles Chargers 24 – The Chiefs have won six straight and are in full throttle again. That showed last week against the Raiders. Now, it’s a Thursday-night road trip to the West Coast on a short week, which usually favors the home team. But in this case, Kansas City is showing why it has been among the league’s elite class for the past three seasons. Its defense is also playing better, forcing five turnovers against Las Vegas last week. On the other side, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is the first in league history to throw 30 touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons, and his 734 career completions are also the first two-seasons record. Herbert is good, but KC is better.
Saturday Game
New England 32, Indianapolis 22 (night) – These teams are coming off bye weeks, so they won’t be hurt by the Saturday scheduling. The big news here is whether New England will stymie the resurgent Colts–a team that desperately wants to break out of the pack at the bottom of the AFC playoff race. The challenge for the AFC East-leading Patriots is finding ways to control Jonathan Taylor.
Sunday Games
Pittsburgh 26, Tennessee 20 – The Steelers have shown some Baltimore-esque resiliency, winning a game they had to have against the Ravens and, then, very nearly completing the largest-ever rally in NFL regular-season history v. Minnesota. Pittsburgh had trouble stopping Dalvin Cook in that game, but it will be at home for this one, not having to face Derrick Henry. The Steelers have never had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. They don’t intend to post one now, especially with a Wild Card spot in the offing.
Dallas 40, New York Giants 17 – The Cowboys are healthy and finding their groove again. Yes, the Giants will be home, but Big Blue has already clinched its fifth straight losing season. Woe is NYG fans.
Miami 24, New York Jets 6 – I don’t give the Jets much of a chance against the revived Dolphins, a team that is coming off a bye week. The Jets are officially eliminated, missing the postseason for an 11th straight year, tying the franchise record. Woe is NYJ fans.
Houston 9, Jacksonville 5 – Houston won the first meeting at home in Week One. This is the rematch in Jacksonville. Doesn’t matter.
Arizona 37, Detroit 13 – The Lions will play hard, as they have done all season, but they’re not in the same class as the team that has had the league’s best record for most of the year. Still, the good news is that the game is in Detroit, home to the team likely to wind up with the first overall draft pick.
Buffalo 23, Carolina 15 – The Bills used to be the AFC’s top playoff seed, but now they are clinging to their playoff life. The good news is that they are home this week to face a depleted Panthers team. The Bills will get themselves right in this one because it’s against an overmatched opponent. Then, the Pats loom again (in a road game) next week.
Green Bay 27, Baltimore 23 – Through the years, these two cities have played meaningful games, and this game is loaded with significance, too. Lamar Jackson (ankle sprain) might not play, but (even if he does) I don’t see Baltimore beating one of the league’s consistently-elite teams. You can argue Baltimore is also a top-echelon club, too, but the way things have gone for the battered Ravens, a third straight loss, even at home, is more likely.
Cincinnati 29, Denver 16 – Denver is usually tough at home, but they take on a Bengals squad that has plenty to play for this week. A Cincinnati win puts renewed pressure on Baltimore, a team that looms on the schedule next week in a home game. Yes, that’s a lot to play—Cincinnati in this one.
San Francisco 34, Atlanta 21 – Despite their 6-2 road mark, it asks a lot of the Falcons to go out West and beat a 49er team with plenty on the line. Too much, indeed.
Tampa Bay 36, New Orleans 19 (night) – The Bucs are at home again, and Saints are on the road again, with memories of the Saints holding off the Bucs to beat TB at home earlier this year. Great memories those are (for NO), but they are images of what was. What is? Taysom Hill is the starting QB, and Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. Meaning? No season sweep for the Louisianans in ’21.
Monday Games
Cleveland 26, Las Vegas 15 (afternoon) – The Raiders, on a torturous road trip, now have to go to Cleveland on a short week to face a rested Browns team that has a lot of confidence after holding off injury-plagued Baltimore. The Raiders have troubles, and I think they are running out of steam. Despite the Browns’ recent COVID outbreak and Baker Mayfield’s inconsistency, I don’t see LVR winning this one.
Minnesota 33, Chicago 16 (evening) – All but one of Minnesota’s games this year have been decided by eight points or less. Will that happen again against the Bears? Chicago looked good in the first half against the Packers. But (after all) we are talking about the Bears and the Packers took care of business quickly and definitively. The Vikings have confounded me all year long, winning when I thought they’d lose and vice versa. Still, though, I’m relatively confident that the Cousins-crew will win at Soldier Field.
Tuesday Games
(both games, 7p Eastern kickoff)
Los Angeles Rams 27, Seattle 10 – The Rams were sliding before they reversed that trend and started winning again, including that impressive MNF road game against the Cardinals. The Seahawks, while eliminated, arose from the near-dead to score wins over San Francisco and Houston, their first two-game win streak of the season. Tyler Lockett is the second player in Seattle franchise history (after Hall of Famer Steve Largent) to post three straight 1000-yard receiving seasons. Still, I don’t see Seattle’s offense being able to overcome the likes of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
Philadelphia 30, Washington 20 – Washington saw its four-game win streak (and very faint playoff hopes) extinguished last week when it allowed Dallas to get off to a hot start. Now, the WFT takes Interstate 95 up to the City of Brotherly Love, where the Eagles, coming off their bye, at least have a semblance of a complete team remaining. Washington holds a playoff seed currently–but with three of its last four games on the road, and all four within the division–things don’t bode well for WFT.
