26-18 over the past three weeks (8-6 last week) just won’t do. Neither is my year-to-date record, 117-76-1 (61%). Doing better is the clarion call with 14 games on tap in Week 14. New England, Miami, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia are idle in the season’s last bye weekend.
NOTE: All games are scheduled for Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Pittsburgh 23, Minnesota 17 (Thursday night) – The Vikings have nauseated me all year with their up-and-down ways. I pick them to win, and they lose. I pick them to lose, and they win. Last week, they provided the ultimate insult by losing to the previously winless Lions. Now, they go back home on a short week to play a Pittsburgh team that may have saved its season against Baltimore. Sure, the team traveling is usually at a disadvantage on a Thursday night, but I don’t trust the Vikings anymore.
Baltimore 26, Cleveland 13 – Cleveland is coming off its bye to play a home game against a team it played just two weeks before its idle time, a rather unorthodox bit of scheduling. Be that as it may, the Browns’ offense thought it was getting healthier before its trip to Baltimore. Instead, they lost their right tackle for the year, and their left tackle continued to struggle. Cleveland’s defense played well, but not when it had to be at its best. The Ravens can taste a third division title in four years and will do just about anything to get it. Witness the two-point conversion attempt at Pittsburgh when an extra-point kick would have kept them alive. Baltimore, plagued by poor offensive line play and inconsistent quarterbacking, has seen its division lead shrink to one game. Still, though, destiny is in its own hands. Familiarity with Cleveland and a winning culture should be enough to prevail.
San Francisco 27, Cincinnati 20 – This rematch of Super Bowls 16 and 23 won’t feature John Taylor catching a last-minute touchdown pass or the Bengals getting stoned against a goal-line brick wall. It will contain two teams that may have begun the homestretch in very good positions, the Bengals’ multi-turnover loss to Los Angeles notwithstanding. Cincinnati is home once again for this game – it is home for four of its final six games – and it must avoid the mistakes that plagued it against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the ‘Niners’ hopes took a bit of a hit in Seattle, but I like the way they around rounding into form.
Dallas 27, Washington 10 – This is the second of three straight road games for Dallas, a team that regained its footing in a Thursday-night win over an injury-riddled, slumping New Orleans squad. Just like Ravens-Browns and Bills-Patriots, these two teams will meet twice in a relatively short span. It’s a rivalry that has been dominated by Dallas in recent years even though Washington recorded a sweep last year. Last week, the Cowboys picked off Taysom Hill four times – the first time they had done that in a game in 11 years – continuing their season-long pattern of aggressively taking away the ball. They should have little to no problem doing the same against WFT.
Tennessee 40, Jacksonville 8 – Tennessee is home and goodbye. The Jaguars are playing like Ramblers… Moving on…
New Orleans 20, New York Jets 13 – New starting quarterback Taysom Hill predictably turned in a tenacious effort last week in a Thursday-night home loss to Dallas, but a finger injury and the absence of a running back and two tackles hampered the Saints’ efforts. The mini-bye might have helped the Saints get healthy, but it’s a road trip to New York on the docket this week. The Jets have managed to pull a few surprises this year (ask the Bengals and Titans), but I have a feeling the Saints are going to have just enough to get a road win here. Still, though, New Orleans has lost five in a row after a 5-2 start–the first time the team has done that within a single season since 2005.
Kansas City 33, Las Vegas 17 – Both teams are showing their authentic selves as the season hits the homestretch. Kansas City is dominant, and the Raiders are schizophrenic. Last week, the Chiefs laid down the hammer on Denver, and the Raiders lost at home to Washington. The Chiefs are at home for this one, and that makes it an easy pick.
Seattle 30, Houston 10 – Going into last week’s home game against San Francisco, the Seahawks had held the ball for 20 minutes or less for three straight games, scoring 15 points or fewer in all three games, Naturally, they lost all three. But their offense roared to life in a home win over the ‘Niners’ that may have come too late to save their season. Now, Seattle travels to face one of the league’s worst teams, and another win looms on the horizon.
Carolina 17, Atlanta 13 – Carolina is coming off its bye, but it won’t have Christian McCaffery to scare defenses. Atlanta hasn’t played with any consistency this year. Storyline here? Outside of the two fan bases, I’m not sure many others care about this game. The home-standing Panthers get my pick,
Tampa Bay 24, Buffalo 20 – The Buccaneers are on the brink of capturing the NFC South Division title, and they would like nothing better than to do it against a quality opponent at home. Then again, who’s to say what a quality opponent looks like? The answer is up-in-the-air this year. Take the Bills, for example. They were once considered to be a lock for an AFC East crown and a top contender for the AFC’s top seed. But with only five games left, the Bills are 1.5 games behind the Pats and occupy the seventh and final AFC playoff seed. The good news is that they get another shot at New England. The bad news is that they get the Bucs in Tampa this week. The Bucs are doing what contending and championship teams are supposed to do. The Bills are not.
Los Angeles Chargers 31, New York Giants 15 – The Chargers got a bit of a scare at Cincinnati last week, nearly blowing a 24-0 lead, but then stopped a two-point conversion, then ran off a few late scores to win going away on the road. Now, they come back home to face an anemic, injury-riddled Giants team that can’t make much headway even in the less-than-stellar NFC East. New York will have fans out there (Big Blue seems to have fans everywhere0, and the Chargers don’t get many of their partisans to come out. But if Los Angeles can hang in the playoff race and stay healthy and consistent, it may give the LA sports market another team to rally around besides the Lakers, Dodgers, and Rams.
Denver 24, Detroit 13 – The Lions have been playing hard all year long, never lacking for effort, and keep most games close. Now, it’s off to Denver to take on a team on the fringes of the ultra-crowded AFC playoff race. That gives the Broncos more than a bit of an edge.
Green Bay 36, Chicago 19 (Sunday night) – The Packers are in a great spot here, coming off their bye, and playing at their Lambeau Field fortress. The Bears are playing out the string, not quite good enough to be a viable playoff team and not quite bad enough to challenge clubs for the first overall draft pick.
Arizona 30, Los Angeles Rams 27 (Monday night) – The Rams set the pace early in the NFC West Division race but lost three straight before last week’s win. Now the Cardinals are on top of the division and the entire NFC, too. And Monday night viewers get a second straight must-see Monday Night game–a game with both promise and consequence. I’ll take the more physical, aggressive Cardinals in what could end up being a tight ballgame. Kyler Murray is back, AZ is playing at home, and the defense is coming off a four-pick game.
