After going 7-3 during Conference Championship Week and 6-2 during the first week of this year’s bowl extravaganza, the Week of December 20 was a downer, yielding a 3-4 record straight up. Now at 16-9 (64%), we pick among the biggest games of New Year’s week.
Frank is pleased to be joined this week by colleague John Revitte. We pick the outcomes of all bowl games involving Big Ten teams, and we also pick the CFP semi between Alabama and Cincinnati. John makes all the picks except for two–the CFP clash between ‘Bama and Cincy, and the late addition of Rutgers replacing A&M in the Gator Bowl. Frank makes those picks and does the analysis as well.
Tuesday
West Virginia v. -5 Minnesota. John sees it Minnesota 28, WVU 17. It’s a tough call for WVU alum Frank, but John probably has it right. Yes, Minnesota has had an up-and-down year, but anybody who has watched both teams knows that the Gophers are the stronger team. For one thing, Tanner Morgan is better at QB than Jarret Doege, even though stats give Doege the edge. The difference? Morgan reads defenses better than does the often mystifying Doege. Plus, Leddie Brown, WVU’s 1000-yard rusher, is sitting out the game (NFL prep). Gophers should win and cover.
Wednesday
Virginia Tech v. -4.5 Maryland. John sees it Virginia Tech 31, Maryland 27. Maryland should have had a better year (we say that largely because of talented QB Tua Tagovailoa), but offensive inconsistency and defensive instability kept that from happening. The Hokies weren’t impressive either. Indeed, Tech’s play is a shocking drop-off from how the team played under Frank Beamer, and that led to Justin Fuente’s in-season departure (fired). The line (-4.5 Terps) seems rich for a game that could go either way, and we think the Vegas line is probably more a statement about Tech’s ills than it is an affirmation of Maryland’s prowess. With the idea that Tech’s return to the future starts Wednesday. we’re going with the Hokies.
Thursday
Purdue v. -5 Tennessee. John sees it Tennessee 34, Purdue 24. “Gains a lot of yards, gives up a lot of yards” could be written on the backs of players’ jerseys. Which team? Both teams. Each team had a signature win late (Vols v. Kentucky and Boilers v. MSU), but neither squad plays with consistency. The Over/Under in this one seems right (64), and the line favors Tennessee. Yes, there’s a case to be made for Purdue, but we’re going with Tennessee (gulp) to win and cover.
Pittsburgh v. -2.5 Michigan State: John sees it Pitt 28, MSU 23. What was supposed to be a marquee match-up of Heisman-quality offensive players–RB Walker (MSU) and QB Pickett (Pitt)–won’t happen because both players are sitting out the bowl (NFL prep). Nobody knows how Pickett’s inexperienced replacement, Nick Patti, will perform. Pitt will probably rely on rushing (not a strong point) and high percentage passing routes. For MSU, Walker’s departure means more pressure will be put on productive QB Payton Thorne and his solid set of receivers. The Spartans will also need Elijah Collins, Jordan Simmons, or Harold Joiner to have a Walker-style game. But we aren’t worried about MSU’s offense; it’s the defense that has us shaking our heads, the secondary in particular. Statistically, MSU was the country’s worst team against the pass in 2021. While a Spartan victory would put an exclamation point on the tremendous job Coach Mel Tucker did this year in East Lansing, we surmise that Patti doesn’t need to have a Pickett-type game for Pitt to put up a lot of points against the Spartans. We always root for our home team (MSU), so here’s hoping we’re wrong.
Arizona State v. -6 Wisconsin: John sees it Wisconsin 27. ASU 17. A headline in the Madison State Journal reported that an unusual number of local sports fans have lost their hair recently, and we know the reason. It’s the Badgers, a team that causes UW faithful to rip out their locks. Still, the team had a nice late-season surge (4-1), losing only to Minnesota in the season’s final game. That said, the Minnesota game wasn’t just another contest. THE BIG TEN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP WAS ON THE LINE! (See what we mean about hair loss?). What’s the remedy? Arizona State. To win, the Badgers will need to step up and not allow the Sun Devils’ Jayden Daniels to play pitch-and-catch with Ricky Pearsall, who had 44 receptions on the year. But the bigger issue for Wisconsin is Wisconsin–QB Graham Mertz in particular. Mertz needs to have a solid game, which (in his case) means not losing the game.
Friday
Rutgers v. -14.5 Wake Forest. Frank sees it Wake Forest 48, Rutgers 10. Texas A&M dropped out of this game (COVID), which opened the door for a 5-7 team (Rutgers) to play in a bowl. Vegas wasn’t impressed by the replacement. Bet $700 on Wake to win $100, and wager $100 on the Scarlet Knights to win $500. In horse racing terms, RU is a real long shot, and why not? Wake played for the ACC Championship. Rutgers had a losing season. Wake. Big.
Michigan v. -7.5 Georgia: John sees it UGA 28, Michigan 27. Give UM full credit. The Wolverines did something they haven’t done in a long time–beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten football championship. Inarguably, this is the best UM team in years. Finally, Michigan has a running game (Hassan Haskins with nearly 1300 yards) and a highly serviceable QB (Cade McNamara with bout 2500 yards passing). The problem is Georgia–a team that looked to be college football’s best until the Dawgs ran up against Alabama. Despite getting blown out in the SEC Championship game, UGA is still yielding fewer than 10 points a game, while it is scoring nearly 40 points a contest. Georgia has been here before AND they want another shot at ‘Bama with the national championship on the line. Bottom line? We think the Wolves will give UGA a fight–an outcome that alum John fully expects–and perhaps UM might score a lot of points in the process. But, in the end, we think UGA’s strength and experience will prevail.
Cincinnati v. -13.5 Alabama. Frank sees it ‘Bama 21, UC 17. To get an opportunity to win another national championship, the college football machine AKA Alabama has to beat a Cinderella team–and a formidable one, too–that Luke Fickell has assembled, just as Brian Kelly did before him. But let’s face it: this is a game of contrasts–talent (4-and 5-stars v. coached-up 3-stars), level of competition (Power 5 v. Group of 5), and program finances (mega-difference). Coaching, too? Perhaps not. Fickell could very well be the next generation’s Saban. That’s for the future to determine. Today is now. Even though this could end up being a close game (2020 Peach Bowl: UGA 24, Cincinnati 21), the nod has to go to ‘Bama. One reason (shown clearly in Bama’s last-minute, come-from-behind win at Auburn) is QB Bryce Young. A coach on the field, in 2021 Young threw for over 4300 yards (no misprint) with 43 TDs, only 4 INTs, and a 181 QB rating against ranked teams. Yowza!
Saturday
Arkansas v. -1 Penn State, John sees it PSU 27, Arkansas 20. Give the Hogs credit for having a good year when UA has had many disappointing years. Being in a major bowl is a welcome relief for a team that is used to watching competitors play on TV this time of year. Penn State, on the other hand, is always full of promise until reality hits as the season progresses. Still, the Nittany Lions (the brand) always find themselves in a name bowl, which is the Outback Bowl this year. What’s the difference here? PSU had to compete in the rugged Big Ten East while Arkansas competed in the generally down SEC. The Hogs huge win v. A&M is balanced by a joke of a non-conference slate that included Rice, Georgia Southern, and Arkansas Pine Bluff. The challenge for the Lions will be scoring, and that makes John’s pick of 27 points a bit on the high side.
Iowa v. -3 Kentucky: John sees it Iowa 21, Kentucky 20. Is this a mirror of the PSU-UA game, or what? Kentucky, like Arkansas, had a good year when many other seasons were quite the opposite. And Iowa, like PSU, has trouble scoring points. Emotions may be the difference in this one–Kentucky pleased to be in a January 1 game, and Iowa disappointed after getting run over by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game. Still, we pick the Hawkeyes to prevail mainly because of the competitive difference. UK beat a trio of uncompetitive teams going down the stretch–Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and Louisville–while Iowa went 4-1 to close out the season, including beating Minnesota and coming back on the road against Nebraska when a loss seemed imminent. That win helped the Hawks clinch the Big Ten West.
Utah v. -6.5 Ohio State: John sees it Ohio State 38, Utah 21. Emotions loom large in this game, too, with the possibility of OSU showing disappointment from not winning the Big Ten and making the CFP. Utah, on the other hand, is jumping for joy as the PAC-12 winner and the league’s Rose Bowl rep. The Over/Under is 65.5 in this game, and we don’t think that’s because the Buckeyes will win going away. We think both teams will score a lot of points. OSU averages 46 a game, while the Utes score at a 36-point clip. Both teams are generally good at controlling opponents on the ground. The defensive challenge is through the air, and each team will have to control a good QB. OSU’s C.J. Stroud was a strong Heisman candidate for a good share of the year (3900 yards with 38 TDs), while Cameron Rising (2300 yards, 18 TDs) was a difference-maker for the Utes. John sees the Bucks winning handily, but don’t be surprised if the final score is closer than the predicted 17-point spread. This is a really big game for Double U.
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ESPN is the stats source.
