For a second straight week, I was 9-6, lifting my year-to-date mark to 109-70-1 (61%). We turn the page to a new month with only 14 games and the next-to-last set of byes. Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Tennessee have the week off.
NOTE: All games will be played Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Dallas 34, New Orleans 17 (Thursday night) – These teams played on Thanksgiving, so they both had a normal week’s rest before this game. The Cowboys have lost three of four, but all of those defeats have come at the hands of AFC West Division teams. Plus, even without top receivers CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper and pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the Cowboys nearly beat the Raiders on Turkey Day while ringing up 33 points. All four should be healthy for this game against a Saints team that has lost four straight and has faded out of the playoff picture without Jameis Winston under center. And I don’t feel there’s any way Dallas commits the number of defensive penalties it did last week, which cost them that game more than anything Las Vegas did.
Cincinnati 37, Los Angeles Chargers 34 – The Chargers have managed to stay healthy and make hay with a promising young quarterback and an impressive bunch of skill-position players. But that sounds like a good description of the Bengals, too. Cincinnati was firing on all cylinders last week in a rout of the visiting Steelers, sweeping them for the first time in 12 years. Cincinnati is at home again for this one, but the wind chill won’t be minus-59 as it was when these two teams met in the 1981 AFC title game (kids, ask your parents). The action should be red-hot, most likely, and I’ll take the home team here.
Kansas City 26, Denver 13 – The Broncos reared their heads up at home by decking the Chargers–a somewhat surprising result even when you consider the AFC West rivals’ familiarity with each other. The Chiefs are returning from their bye week to host this game, and it’s their turn to use a loud home crowd to their advantage. They did so when they passed a big test against Dallas, and I feel they will do the same against the Broncos, who have won three of four themselves. The Chiefs are back to their old form, but whether it will be enough to nab another playoff bye remains to be seen. Patrick Mahomes had better be wary of Denver’s first-round corner Patrick Surtain II, son of the former Dolphins’ great, who picked off the Chargers’ Justin Herbert twice last week, returning one for a 70-yard score.
Indianapolis 33, Houston 6 – Houston’s at home and coming off another loss as it plays out the string. They take on a Colts squad that is coming off an exhausting home struggle with the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Indy has lost nine of its last ten against playoff teams, but Houston certainly isn’t that. However, for some reason, Indy ran 26 straight pass plays at one point during its narrow loss to Tampa Bay last week. Hey, Colts, do you remember Jonathan Taylor?
Miami 23, New York Giants 16 – Miami is the sixth team in NFL history to start 1-7, then win four in a row. The Dolphins get to stay home this week to take on the Giants, which struggled mightily at home against an Eagles squad that also had trouble scoring points. Miami got the job done against a good Carolina defense last week in a highly decisive win and, this week, they don’t have to see Cam Newton, but Daniel Jones instead. Jaylen Waddle is proving to be a top target for Tua Tagovailoa, with nine grabs and a season-best 137 yards last week.
Philadelphia 20, New York Jets 12 – Philadelphia, a team heading for a bye, again shows its inconsistency. It had committed only two turnovers in four weeks before giving the ball away four times, including three interceptions in last week’s low-scoring slugfest at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The Eagles scored a season-low seven points in that loss. Guess where they are playing this week? The very same stadium, this time to take on the Jets in a battle of green-clad squads. I believe the Eagles will want to help out their robust and veteran defense (especially the front seven) by taking better care of the ball against an inferior team. Last week, the Jets broke a three-game losing streak, but that win over Houston was a temporary respite from more misery.
Minnesota 33, Detroit 16 – The Vikings, at least for now, have shaken off their up-and-down ways. They won a couple of big road games at Los Angeles (Chargers) and Green Bay to get themselves back into the NFC North Division race. Even though this game involves a short trip to play a winless team, it is still a division game that demands the Vikings’ full attention. I thought the Lions were primed to get into the win column on Thanksgiving against Chicago, but Detroit keeps finding ways to lose despite playing hard. Now, they run into a team that has something for which to play.
Tampa Bay 40, Atlanta 17 – When a team is struggling as badly as Atlanta is, it has to take care of business against even worse teams, as Jacksonville is, and the Falcons nailed down that win for the first time in three weeks, Now they head home to face… uh-oh … the defending Super Bowl champions, who are fresh off a spirited battle at Indianapolis, one in which they scored 38 points and got five takeaways on defense, along with four Leonard Fournette touchdowns. On Sunday it’s another Bucs road trip, this time against an overmatched opponent.
Arizona 31, Chicago 13 – For the last couple of weeks, the Bears have drawn teams into low-scoring games that have kept them competitive. Last week, Chicago came through and won such a game at Detroit, ending their five-game losing streak. Because it was on Thanksgiving, they got a nice mini-bye after the game before returning home to play the rampaging Cardinals, a team that has been winning despite not having Kyler Murray under center for the better part of the past month. I don’t see AZ slipping up against a clearly-inferior team, even on the road.
Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 17 – The Steelers–winless in their last three games–look old, slow, and done. But, then again, there have been other occasions in this rivalry when Pittsburgh looked vulnerable coming into the game and prevailed. While I have no doubt that the Steelers will show great effort in front of their home crowd, the question is whether they will have enough to get a win. Rivalry, familiarity, and emotion can take you only so far, even against a Baltimore team that hasn’t been anywhere close to perfect. But there’s a context here. Pittsburgh is coming off their largest defeat margin in five years, and the Ravens keep finding ways to win.
Los Angeles Rams 30, Jacksonville 5 – Yes, the Rams have lost three straight. Yes, Matthew Stafford has thrown interceptions that were run back for scores in all of those games, but … whose idea was THIS matchup? Moving on….
Las Vegas 27, Washington 17 – Once the Raiders forced Jon Gruden to resign, they won two straight, lost three in a row, then beat Dallas on the road on Thanksgiving, which is usually very hard to do. The Cowboys did give them plenty of help, but it’s a bottom-line business and the hard and cold fact is that the Raiders won the game and got a nice mini-bye before going back home to play Washington in a pseudo-rematch of Super Bowl 18. The Raiders, then in Los Angeles, won that long-ago game in a blowout. This one won’t feature a large margin, but the Raiders got the wind put back in their sails with the Dallas win, while Washington has to think about playing out the string.
San Francisco 26, Seattle 19 (Sunday night) – The overall strength of the NFC West Division was diminished when these two teams took huge backward steps earlier this season. But San Francisco snapped out of it by winning three in a row, while the ‘Hawks’ usual formidable home-field advantage doesn’t seem to make much of a difference this year. Still, Deebo Samuel’s injury bears watching.
Buffalo 24, New England 23 (Monday night) – The Patriots are heading for their bye week after this game, but as winners of six straight, they probably would prefer to keep playing. Earlier in the season, I thought a trip to Buffalo would be problematic, what with Mac Jones’ growing pains and the Bills’ superior form in September and October. But then New England reeled off wins and Buffalo went into a bit of a funk until they beat the Saints on Thanksgiving night. Now, the Bills are ready to take on New England in the first of two December games that will determine the AFC East Division crown. To win, the Bills will have to cover Kendrick Bourne, the previously-unheralded receiver who scored twice against Tennessee last week.
