I managed to canter along last week at 10-5, bringing my year-to-date record to 64% (78-44). This week, everyone in the AFC will be on the field while four NFC teams–Detroit, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Washington–are bye weeks.
NOTE: All games will be played on Sunday unless noted otherwise. (Column was published originally on Tuesday, November 2.)
Indianapolis 24, New York Jets 6 (Thursday night) – The first of the five Super Bowl rematches on this weekend’s ledger comes with an asterisk. The Colts represented Baltimore when they took on the Jets in Super Bowl 3 in Miami. But these 2021 Jets would need a heck of a lot more than George Sauer, Randy Beverly, and Joe Namath to win this game. Indianapolis is far from perfect, but the Jets are appearing in prime time only because of the city they represent and the viewers they will bring. The best part about most Jets or Giants games is reading blistering columns in the next day’s New York Post. It is too much to expect Jets’ backup quarterback Mike White to have a second straight breakout game.
Baltimore 31, Minnesota 27 – The Vikings always seem comfortable when they visit Baltimore because the organization has had many former Ravens and University of Maryland players and coaches on the roster. The most recent Charm City meeting between these teams resulted in the only ‘snow game’ in the Ravens’ 26-season history. Minnesota knows snow, but the Ravens know how to play at home, and they are also 17-8 in franchise history in their first post-bye game. If the Ravens tackle better, run the ball more consistently with players not named Lamar Jackson, and cover a talented Vikings receiving corps, then they can use their overall better talent to eke out a win. But this game is more dangerous than many believe. How so? Minnesota has a propensity to play well when few expect it.
Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 20 – Both of these Ohio-based rivals are scratching their heads over a pair of baffling losses last week. The banged-up Browns saw quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Nick Chubb return, but they lost at home to Pittsburgh. The Bengals were flying high at the top of the AFC before losing to the New York Jets. Those games are proof positive of the week-to-week nature of this league, and both of them need to come up with a win in the league’s toughest division to maintain playoff hopes. So, which way will this one go? Neither of these teams has a consistent or recent winning culture, but Cleveland has a slight edge in tasting success over the past few campaigns. After three straight on the road, the game is in Cincinnati, but the Bengals learned a hard lesson last week (don’t get too full of yourselves), and I think they will get dealt another blow on Sunday.
New England 26, Carolina 17 – The Panthers, depleted by injuries and trade rumors swirling around them, are seeing a promising season disintegrate. That said, they did rebound with a win at Atlanta last week to snap a four-game skid. Still, the going might be tough with quarterback Sam Darnold having incurred a concussion. For the Patriots’ part, they are in the hunt to grab a wild-card berth, and I think that quest will live at least for another week.
Dallas 29, Denver 9 – Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott looked quite sharp in last week’s pregame warmups at Minnesota, but his injured calf muscle kept him out of that game. On the other side of the field, the once undefeated Broncos are learning that wins are much harder to come by as their schedule stiffened. They struggled to beat the two-win Washington Football Team last week and lost four in a row before then. Denver is the type of team that fill-in QB Cooper Rush can beat if Dak isn’t ready to go.
Buffalo 41, Jacksonville 17 – Buffalo will have to deal with Trevor Lawrence and figure out how to tackle Leonard Fournette and cover DJ Chark. But that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Bills. These days, the team’s biggest problem is the company that has suddenly appeared at the top of the AFC Conference. Buffalo does not have a tiebreaker edge over either Tennessee or Pittsburgh. That means the Bills have no room for error; they must win games like this one to keep hope alive for nabbing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Las Vegas 33, New York Giants 10 – Coach Rich Bisaccia’s team gets to play an injury-riddled team that looks more like Baby Blue these days. The Giants, heading for their bye next week, have the league’s worst record since the beginning of 2017. It will take a lot for them to match the confidence and ability of a Raiders team that has taken an upswing since Jon Gruden’s resignation. Las Vegas is playing the way many analysts expected but weren’t earlier in the year. To sustain momentum, the Raiders can’t afford to drop one against a weak foe.
Miami 16, Houston 12 – The Texans, currently riding a seven-game losing streak, are heading for their bye next week. On the other hand, Miami has had some moments of positivity, even if the results haven’t matched the effort since Week One against New England. I’ll go with the Dolphins because they are at home, have shown effort, and have the better quarterback. That said, this is my “Game Of The Weak.”
New Orleans 35, Atlanta 23 – It’s another home game at the Caesars Superdome for the Saints, and their new naming-rights agreement with the wagering giant signifies just how much of a gamble it is to bet on New Orleans these days. Even with a third-string quarterback in Trever Siemian, the Saints managed to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions last week, getting an interception-touchdown on the “last-drive king,” Tom Brady, to seal the win. New Orleans gets to stay home and play an NFC South rival coming off a game against slumping Carolina that it could have – probably should have – won. But the fight and the talent the Saints have, no matter where on the depth chart it comes from, should be enough to outlast the Falcons. They’ll need the depth because it looks like Jameis Winston’s torn left knee ligament has ended his season.
Green Bay 30, Kansas City 27 – (pick sustained after Rodgers was ruled out with text removed pertaining to the anticipated Rodgers-Mahomes duel.) Green Bay, winners of seven straight since a Week One loss and coming off a mini-bye after beating previously undefeated Arizona, has a bit of an edge in this one–even with Rodgers out and Love at the controls. That’s because the Chiefs–the team with the hardest remaining schedule in the league–are turnover- and penalty-prone these days.
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Philadelphia 17 – After two straight losses, the Eagles were quite fortunate to run into a winless Detroit last week. Home this week, the Eagles won’t encounter the same kind of moribund opposition in the Chargers, who have hopefully learned their lesson and will fly in earlier than they did for their game in Baltimore. Los Angeles sleepwalked through that game. It should be able to manage better in a game that will start at 10 a.m. Pacific time.
Arizona 31, San Francisco 19 – The Cardinals have to quickly pivot here after being loose with the ball last week. They committed three turnovers in a three-point loss to Green Bay, denying AZ from its first-ever 8-0 start. But San Francisco will also have to pull off a pivot, trying to work its way through a quarterback crisis and a myriad of injuries. And speaking of health, Kyler Murray, the Cardinals’ electrifying quarterback, was limping towards the end of last week’s game, and standout receiver DeAndre Hopkins missed part of that contest as well. But that might not matter. The ‘Niners have lost ten of their last 11 home games.
Los Angeles Rams 34, Tennessee 23 (Sunday night) – Los Angeles has been one of the league’s most potent and consistent teams, and they just traded for Von Miller, which will make LAR even stronger. The Rams will be at home against a hard-to-figure Titans squad that can beat good teams like Buffalo and Kansas City while losing to a poor team like the New York Jets. Still, like the Rams, the Titans have won four straight and hold a three-game AFC South Division lead. As the 2021 schedule turns a page to the second half of the season, both teams are eager to cement themselves in the conversation about the NFL’s best teams. The problem for the Titans isn’t just winning a big game (like this one) on the road; it’s having to do it without Derrick Henry.
Pittsburgh 20, Chicago 16 (Monday night) – The Bears are heading for its bye next week, and not a moment too soon. They lost their head coach last week due to COVID, and long-standing kicking problems resurfaced in a home loss to a slumping San Francisco team. Now, they face a resurgent Pittsburgh club fresh off a critical road division win at Cleveland. Najee Harris has keyed the Steelers’ rebound, and he should be the leading man again in this prime-time slugfest. I think it will be a game that won’t feature a lot of points but will be earmarked by physicalities–the kind that cost the Steelers their kicker last week. That wasn’t an insignificant loss either, especially for a team that plays many close games.
