Week 11 brought a 9-6 record, bringing my season total to 100-64-1 (61%). There are 15 games on the schedule this week (AZ and KC get byes). My annual Baltimore-area Thanksgiving high school game pick is on the bonus line between Calvert Hall (my alma mater) and Loyola.
Thursday Games
Calvert Hall 30, Loyola Blakefield 20 (morning) – This game doesn’t count towards my NFL total, but I wish it did. It’s been a rather simple prognostication exercise for what is usually a close, heated Baltimore high school rivalry. Picking it has been simple, though, in that Calvert Hall, my alma mater (‘ 81), has won the last six meetings and ten of the previous 11 Turkey Bowls. It was canceled in the previous year for the first time in this century-long rivalry due to the pandemic, but the Cardinals’ streak is likely to continue despite Loyola’s fine season. Calvert Hall played for a conference title (as did Loyola, one level down), so its campaign proved to be a little better. That could make the difference in what should be a closer game than we’ve seen from these two in recent years. The Dons still lead the lifetime series, holding a six-win margin (49-43-8), but with a win, Calvert Hall will tie its own longest win streak in the rivalry at seven, which it pulled off between 1978-84. Yours indeed was a student there for part of that period.
Detroit 23, Chicago 19 (afternoon) – I know many of you continually complain about the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving national-TV date. First of all, when the NFL was trying to grow in the 1930s by playing on the holiday, Detroit volunteered to host a game, so it’s a tradition. Secondly, it’s football on Turkey Day, so why complain about who’s playing? This year’s winless Lions have, strangely, a bit of a loveable quality about them, playing hard and scaring some good teams around the league, the Ravens and Rams among them, but they are still winless in their last 14 games. The Lions’ most significant problem is scoring, held under 20 points for nine straight games. The Bears, losers of five straight and sitting at 3-7, have to travel on a short week, even though the trip isn’t long and they know the opposition well. Still, it’s got to be the Lions’ time, at long last… it has to be, right?
Dallas 36, Las Vegas 31 (afternoon) – Momentum has turned against the Raiders in recent weeks. Kansas City has improved and re-taken the AFC West Division lead in the wake of the Raiders’ three-game losing streak. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are healthier and better on both sides of the ball than they have been at any time in the last few years–last week’s loss in Kansas City notwithstanding. With Derek Carr and Dak Prescott playing in top form, there could be a lot of points scored here, enough to stave off the effects of tryptophan. (Bonus recommendation: You can sleep during the halftime show. It’s bound to be headlined by the same kind of lame modern-day musical act we’ve seen at the Super Bowl for the past decade or so.)
Buffalo 33, New Orleans 23 (night) – Buffalo’s defense was rounding into form until it ran into red-hot Indianapolis. With the season’s homestretch beckoning, it’s the wrong time to start a slump, and the Bills have lost three of their last five. Defense is how the Bills became relevant again. Head coach Sean McDermott and the front office concentrated on that side of the ball before going out and getting a franchise quarterback and a few above-average skill-position players. On the other hand, New Orleans will be home with a dome full of partying fans ready to extend their Thanksgiving holiday. The Saints, even without Drew Brees, have hung in rather well, playing competitive football and becoming a factor in the NFC playoff race. But on this night, they’re facing a team closer to being among the league’s elite–at least what passes for elite these days. Despite their fight, if the Saints lose a fourth straight game, it could be all over for them.
Sunday Games
Cincinnati 29, Pittsburgh 20 – Just as I anticipated, the Bengals have recaptured the good mojo that got them off to a 5-1 start. For this game, Cincinnati will be at home and attempt to pull off a rare two-game intradivisional sweep of the Steelers, who are fresh off a Sunday-night game on the West Coast against the Chargers. For that matter, the Bengals were out in Las Vegas last week and won decisively despite a struggling game from quarterback Joe Burrow, which is a promising sign. The Steelers did have a five-game unbeaten run to get back into the division and wild-card races, but any more slip-ups–like the kind that led them to a 1-3 start–will likely mean curtains for 2021.
Philadelphia 17, New York Giants 13 – Both of these longtime NFC East Division rivals have gotten healthier and better. Maybe it hasn’t happened in time to make a run at a wild-card playoff spot, but their ever-intense fans have to feel encouraged. In that regard, the Eagles have beaten the Giants to the punch, and I think they should be able to go up to New Jersey and get another win, especially if the Giants can’t find their rhythm.
New England 27, Tennessee 23 – Don’t look now, but the Patriots have won five in a row and have rushed for 120 or more yards in seven straight games, which is the league’s longest active streak. They also have 13 shutouts since 2000, tied with Baltimore for the most over that span. They get to go home with a mini-bye under their belt to take on AFC overall leader Tennessee, which had won six straight before a baffling home loss to Houston. Both of these teams have shown the kind of consistency with which any club must enter the home stretch, but I’m going to go with a northern-tier team that has learned to run the ball in stunningly effective fashion with the weather growing colder. Plus, Mac Jones keeps proving he’s the best of this year’s rookie quarterback class. It’s also important to note that the Titans have had to use 82 different players this year, two off the full-season record. However, here is a cautionary note for Patriots fans: veteran kicker Nick Folk has missed four extra points, which could make a big difference in a game like this.
New York Jets 18, Houston 9 – Well, how about THIS matchup? It’s rather fitting for Thanksgiving weekend, considering that these two teams should be thankful even to be part of the NFL anymore. They’ve both cycled through multiple quarterbacks and have sieve-like defenses. Houston is at home here, but it’s the Jets that have proven to be more consistently competitive, even notching a win over Tennessee earlier this season. For its part, Houston also knocked off the Titans last week, but that seemed more like a fluke to me. It’s rare to say it these days, but I’m going to tell it: I don’t see any way the Jets lose this game.
Tampa Bay 31, Indianapolis 30 – The Colts have won three straight, paced by likely 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product leads the league in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Indy is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, along with New England (five straight wins) and Kansas City (four). Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champions seemed to stumble coming out of their bye, losing two in a row, before the offense got healthy last Monday night against the New York Giants. With the Colts at home for this one, it’s tempting to pick them, given their more consistent form of late. But as the calendar turns to December, it’s when specific teams – and the stars that drive them – assert themselves. The always-shifting fortunes of momentum should swing again here. Plus, I don’t think it’s a good move to go against Tom Brady this time of year.
Atlanta 19, Jacksonville 16 – I was tempted to take the Jaguars here, especially in light of the Falcons’ incredibly feeble home effort against New England last week. But Atlanta got a mini-bye after that Thursday-night shutout loss, and this road trip to northeast Florida isn’t all that taxing. Still, I feel that Trevor Lawrence is deep enough into his rookie season to know what he’s in for now. He should play well against a Falcon defense that, simply put, is not very good at all. But Matt Ryan, now in his 14th season, has been around the block a few times, and he has a tough, tight end in Kyle Pitts to whom he can throw the ball.
Carolina 30 Miami 17 – Carolina is heading for a bye after this game, but it’s not as if the team has to re-acquaint Cam Newton with the organizational playbook. He has rediscovered his comfort level that came with being with the team for nearly a decade, winning an MVP award, and taking the team to Super Bowl 50. They go on the road to face a Miami team on a three-game winning streak. Carolina has been more consistent, and it has the NFC playoffs in its sights.
Los Angeles Chargers 24, Denver 19 – The Chargers looked sharp on both sides of the ball last Sunday night against Pittsburgh before blowing a 17-point lead and nearly losing. That game was at home, but now, they make the always-challenging road trip to Denver, where the Broncos are coming off their bye week. Still, I feel Los Angeles should be able to put together back-to-back winning efforts, especially against a fellow AFC West Division team known rather well. The Chargers did commit 12 penalties last week, something that must be addressed.
Green Bay 33, Los Angeles Rams 23 – Before the season began, I picked the Rams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (in its stadium, no less). But it appears the guys from the Golden State are showing a great vulnerability to aggressive, physical play. This time of year, it’s physicality and toughness that rules the day, and with the Packers playing in their Lambeau Field fortress, it would appear that momentum is on their side. But The Packers should head for their bye still on a roll. However, Aaron Rodgers’ toe injury, which has him in a lot of pain, bears watching.
San Francisco 24, Minnesota 22 – Here are a pair of teams that have finally discovered a winning rhythm. But is it too little, too late for both? The Vikings have managed to notch wins over the Chargers and Green Bay, the latter coming home, but they are in a road-heavy portion of their schedule. The good news for Minnesota is that they are going to San Francisco, where the ‘Niners have lost much more often than they have won lately. San Francisco did show more health, vitality, and physical play in beating the Rams at Levi’s Stadium, so maybe it is also ready to turn a corner with wins in three of its last four. As usual, the big question comes down to quarterbacks. Does Jimmy Garoppolo come up with another solid effort, or will Kirk Cousins use his weapons to get a third straight win?
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore 31, Cleveland 20 – Cleveland is heading for its bye after this game. And–get this…after the off-week, it gets to play the Ravens again. But the schedule isn’t the challenge, Beating Baltimore is. Cleveland lost only five regular-season games last year, and two were to the Ravens. And Baltimore has beaten Cleveland more than any other team in the league. That’s quite a feat considering the Browns didn’t exist for the Ravens’ first three seasons. To advance their fortunes, Cleveland needs to do three things–learn how how to deal with prosperity, handle adversity, and beat the Ravens.
Monday Night Football
Seattle 20, Washington 13 – Seattle is at Washington for a prime-time, cross-country NFC battle of two woebegone teams. Washington is one of those teams, its two-game win streak notwithstanding. Taylor Heinicke deserves credit for the way he’s led his injury-prone WFT teammates. Still, the freakish aura that accompanied their win over Tampa Bay can’t possibly rear its head again. Russell Wilson should be rounding into form, and he shouldn’t look nearly as rusty as he did when he first came back from his injury.
