Young signal-callers usually don’t win in Baltimore. I expect Justin Herbert to play well – he already has 11 career 300-yard games – but I don’t think it will be quite good enough in what should be one of the league’s best games of the week.
WHAT: Week Six vs. Los Angeles Chargers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 17
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (70,745)
RECORDS: Chargers, 4-1; Ravens, 4-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 7-5, with the Ravens have won three of the last four meetings in regular-season play; in Baltimore, the Ravens lead, 3-1 (not including postseason play). There was a Wild Card Weekend game in Baltimore in 2018 that Los Angeles won, 23-17. Since the Chargers returned to Los Angeles in 2017, the Ravens have won the only regular-season meeting that has taken place since then.
LOCAL TV & RADIO: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Greg Gumbel, Adam Archuleta, booth; AJ Ross, sidelines), IYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, booth)
REFEREE: Bill Vinovich
About the Chargers
—The Los Angeles Chargers began their existence at the birth of the American Football League in the same city they play now, playing one season in Los Angeles. They shared Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with the Rams under a plan devised by owner and hotel tycoon Barron Hilton – before moving to San Diego’s expanded Balboa Park in 1961. In 1966, they moved again into what was eventually re-named Qualcomm Stadium and stayed there through the end of the 2016 season, after which they returned to Los Angeles. The team nickname came about because Hilton liked hearing the fans at Dodger baseball games yell “Charge!” whenever a bugler prompted the crowd.
—The Chargers have made the playoffs only once since 2013, but in their 61 full seasons, they have made 19 postseason appearances, with 14 division championships (none since 2009) and five wild-card berths. In their AFL days, they made the championship game five times, winning once (1963). As far as the modern-day AFC is concerned, the Chargers have made the conference title game four times, losing in 1980, 1981, and 2007 but winning at Pittsburgh in 1994. That win put the Chargers into Super Bowl 29 in South Florida, where a San Diego team head-coached by ex-Maryland mentor Bobby Ross was blown out by San Francisco, 49-26.
—When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, that team played the Chargers five times, winning twice. In San Diego, the Chargers won one of three games against the Colts. San Diego was also the recipient of many Colts players traded away throughout the first half of the Seventies, including quarterback Johnny Unitas and safety Bruce Laird, as the Baltimore franchise went into an all-out rebuild.
—The Ravens-Chargers series has had a few colorful moments, including their unusual meeting in a 27,000-seat soccer stadium in the Los Angeles suburb of Carson in 2018, the Chargers’ temporary home while their current stadium (SoFi Stadium) was being built. In 1998 in San Diego, Michael McCrary’s “leaping” penalty nullified a blocked field goal; given a second chance, the Chargers scored a touchdown and won, 14-13.
—In 2000, the Ravens, coming off a bye week, overwhelmed Ryan Leaf and the Chargers, 24-3, to clinch the Ravens’ first-ever playoff berth. In 2006, Todd Heap avoided a hit from Chargers linebacker and Maryland grad Shawne Merriman, diving into the end zone to give the Ravens a last-minute, 16-13 home win. Ray Lewis’s fourth-down stop of Darren Sproles sealed a 31-26 road victory three years later. In 2012, Ray Rice’s fourth-and-29 conversion helped send the game to overtime, where the Ravens won, 16-13.
—The Chargers, at least to this point in the season, have shown what they are capable of when the roster is healthy, getting off to a 4-1 start for the first time since 2014. Sunday’s game at Baltimore is the second of Los Angeles’ four against the entire AFC North this year; they were home to face Cleveland last week. Los Angeles will be home against Pittsburgh on November 21 and travel to Cincinnati for a December 5 clash. The game in Baltimore is one of five Charger games to begin at 10 a.m. Pacific Time, and it is Los Angeles’ final game before their bye week. It is also one of two NFL games this week featuring dueling division leaders (Buffalo-Tennessee). After the idle Sunday, the Chargers will play three of their next four games at home.
—The Chargers have four wins so far, including an active three-game winning streak. Three of the four wins are by one-score margins, with the other coming by virtue of a 14-point win over division rival Las Vegas. The team’s only loss was also close, by three points at home to Dallas. This season, Los Angeles has outscored its opponents by 26 points, with pronounced advantages in the second (48-26) and fourth quarters (59-28), a testimony to good stamina at the back end of the first and second halves. But in the third period, Los Angeles has been outscored by a lopsided 42-11 count. The Chargers have been just as resilient as the Ravens; in the same week, Baltimore rallied from 19 points to beat Indianapolis, Los Angeles came back from 14 down to top Cleveland.
—Los Angeles is averaging six yards per play on offense, but its defense is allowing the same. The Chargers have run the ball 127 times and passed it 217 (including nine sacks allowed), thanks to the prolific arm of quarterback Justin Herbert. Charger opponents have shown much better balance, running the ball 141 times and passing it 168 (including ten sacks allowed).
—Currently, the Chargers sport a plus-2 turnover ratio, tied for the league’s sixth-best with Seattle and Denver and slightly better than Baltimore’s minus-1 figure. Los Angeles has engineered seven takeaways on defense and given up the ball five times, losing two of five fumbles but throwing only three interceptions. Defensively, the Chargers have recovered only three of the nine fumbles they have forced and have intercepted four opponents’ passes, including a team-high two from reserve cornerback Asante Samuel, Jr.
—Los Angeles has committed 39 accepted penalties, tied for the league’s fourth-most with a decidedly inferior team, the Houston Texans. While the Chargers have been flagged 11 fewer times than the league-high 50 posted by Philadelphia, Los Angeles’ 397 penalty yards lead the NFL (Baltimore has 33 penalties for 324 yards). The Chargers have had eight false starts, five holds, four defensive holds, and four calls for defensive pass interference. Individually, three Chargers have three penalties each, led by edge rusher Joey Bosa, who has been called twice for roughing the passer.
—Herbert keys a highly-ranked Chargers offense, ranked seventh overall (17th rushing, third passing, tied for sixth scoring at 28.4 points per game). The Chargers’ possession-time average and red-zone touchdown percentage are in the middle of the pack, but the team’s third-down conversion rate is the league’s fourth-best at 48.5 percent. The team is averaging 24.8 first downs per game, the league’s fifth-best number.
—Going into a game against Baltimore’s NFL-best offense (440 yards per game), Los Angeles is ranked 19th overall defensively (32nd and last vs. rush by allowing 157.6 yards per game, seventh vs. pass, tied for 12th scoring by allowing 23.2 points per game). The team’s third-down defense is ranked 17th-best, and its red-zone unit currently stands 19th, but the Chargers are allowing 22.2 first downs per game, which ranks in the league’s bottom half.
—Rookie head coach Brandon Staley, a 38-year-old father of three sons, is the 17th leader the Chargers have employed in franchise history. At Division III John Carroll (Ohio), alma mater of NFL legend Don Shula, Staley was named the National Coordinator of the Year for his stout 2016 defense. In the NFL, Staley served as the outside linebackers coach in Chicago (2017-18) and Denver (2019), where he got to coach the likes of pass-rush standouts Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Also, Denver’s Bradley Chubb gained All-Rookie honors after working under Staley. With the crosstown Rams in 2020, Staley’s defense led the league in fewest yards and points allowed, as well as pass defense. A notable assistant on Staley’s staff as wide receivers coach Chris Beatty, a wide receiver on the CFL Grey Cup champion Baltimore Stallions roster in 1995 before going into coaching. One of his college-level stops was the University of Maryland, where he was on the staff from 2016-18.
–-Second-year Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is the second opposing quarterback in a three-week span that has never faced Baltimore before. Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater was the other. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound, strong-armed Oregon product was taken sixth overall in the 2020 draft, won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, was named to the All-Rookie Team and landed a spot at #56 on the NFL Network’s “Top 100 Players” list. He made his 20th career start against Cleveland last week and already has 11 300-yard games, most ever by a quarterback in his first two seasons.
—Last year, Herbert threw 31 touchdown passes, ten interceptions and played to a 98.3 passer rating. He seems to be outdoing himself so far this season with three game-winning drives, 13 scores, three pickoffs, and a 104.7 reading while completing 67.1 percent of his passes. He averages 7.6 yards per attempt and has been sacked nine times with no turnovers in his last three starts, including a season-high 398 yards last week. Herbert and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson are two of five active quarterbacks to have won eight times in a nine-game stretch. Herbert is backed up by 12-year NFL journeyman and career backup Chase Daniel (Missouri).
—On the ground, Austin Ekeler, a fifth-year veteran who went undrafted in 2017 out of tiny Western (Colorado) State, has bided his time while having to wait in the shadows of Melvin Gordon on the Chargers’ depth chart. Now firmly entrenched as the starter, Ekeler has four of the team’s five rushing touchdowns – his seven total scores are tied for the NFL lead – and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. However, he has no attempt longer than 21 yards so far this year. Ekeler did see some action as a change-of-pace back in the 2018 playoff win at Baltimore, getting 15 total touches for 43 yards and playing 39 total snaps.
—Top receiver Keenan Allen has been named to the last four Pro Bowls, and he looks like a sure bet for another with a team-high 34 receptions, an 11-yard average, and one touchdown. But it’s the lanky Mike Williams (6’4”), the 2017 seventh overall pick from Clemson, who has found the end zone more often, with a league-leading six of the team’s 13 receiving touchdowns and 31 receptions for a 15-yard average, including a 72-yard touchdown. Ekeler has 23 catches and three touchdowns out of the backfield, and tight end Jared Cook has 17 grabs with one score and a 13-yard rate. Backup tight end Donald Parham also has two touchdowns.
—The Los Angeles offensive line has completely turned over with no remaining members of the quintet that faced Baltimore in the playoffs just three years ago. Rashawn Slater and Storm Norton are at tackle, Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi man the guard spots, and Corey Linsley is the center. Linsley is perhaps the line’s most physical presence; he is in his first year with the Chargers after seven seasons in Green Bay. Slater is a rookie first-round pick from Northwestern. At the same time, the 6-foot-8 highly-graded Norton, taking the spot of the injured Bryan Bulaga, comes to the team from the University of Toledo and one season with Minnesota. Left guard Feiler spent four years in Pittsburgh before his free-agent defection west, and Aboushi is a nine-year veteran from Virginia on his sixth NFL team.
—Los Angeles likes to place one main pass rusher at the end of its defensive line and rotate at the other three spots. Six-year veteran and Ohio State standout Joey Bosa has 50 career sacks, complete with three double-digit-sack seasons. Bosa, a three-time Pro Bowl pick and third overall draft pick in 2016, has a team-high 2.5 sacks, along with six quarterback hits and two forced fumbles. Jerry Tillery has 18 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and five quarterback hits, while Linval Joseph, a 12-year NFL veteran from East Carolina, is fifth on the team with 22 tackles. In his fourth year from NC State, Justin Jones saw his first game action just last week after being on short-term injured reserve. Christian Covington, an offseason unrestricted free agent from Dallas, got three tackles and a sack against Las Vegas in his first action for the team; he already has 15 tackles.
—The Chargers’ linebacking corps was to have gotten a boost from 2020 second-round pick Kenneth Murray. Still, he has recently been slowed by an ankle injury after getting 19 tackles during the early season and is on short-term injured reserve. Starting last week’s game against Cleveland were fourth-year edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu (Southern California), Drue Tranquill, and Kyzir White. Nwosu has no sacks yet, but he does have five quarterback hits. White is third on the team with 27 tackles; he also has a sack and two forced fumbles. Tranquill is fourth with 26 tackles and can claim two quarterback hits; he had ten tackles against Cleveland last week.
—The Chargers have one of the league’s more formidable safety tandems in their two leading tacklers, a four-year veteran and 2018 first-round pick Derwin James and third-year partner and 2019 second-round selection Nasir Adderley (60th overall). Adderley, a cousin of Green Bay Hall of Fame corner Herb Adderley, is second on the team with 35 total tackles and two pass breakups.
—The 6-foot-2, 215-pound James had a career-high 17 tackles against Cleveland last week – the most single-game tackles by any NFL safety since 2016 – and also recorded his first career forced fumble. He has a team-high 43 tackles, along with 1.5 sacks, two quarterback hits, two pass breakups, and two tackles for loss. In 2018, James became the first Charger rookie named a Pro Bowl starter since Maryland graduate Shawne Merriman in 2005.
—At corner, the Chargers have young players who can easily find the ball. Asante Samuel, Jr., a rookie from Florida State whose father played in the NFL and contributed in the return game, has 16 tackles, two of the team’s four interceptions, and five pass breakups. Fifth-year veteran Michael Davis (Brigham Young) is sixth on the team with 20 tackles and has two of the team’s three fumble recoveries, and reserve Ryan Smith has just been reactivated off short-term injured reserve.
—Los Angeles’ return and coverage teams are a bit below average. On returns, the team is averaging 6.8 on punts (21st in the league) and a mere 16.5 on kick runbacks (tied for third-worst). With the ball in the other team’s hands, Chargers cover specialists are averaging a 7.4 yield per punt return, a bit more respectable at 14th in the league, but are giving up 23 yards per kickoff, the league’s eighth-worst number. Individually, KJ Hill averages 6.8 per punt return (none longer than 12 yards), and Larry Rountree III runs back kicks at a 16.7-yard pace with no attempt longer than 24 yards.
—Tristan Vizcaino is the Chargers’ kicker, as the team continues to attempt to find a long-term solution at that troublesome position. Vizcaino played in one game for San Francisco last season before moving down the coast this year. So far in 2021, he has missed four of 14 points-after touchdown and been successful on six of seven field-goal tries. However, his longest kick traveled only 46 yards, and he has not attempted a field goal from beyond 50 yards so far this year.
—Punter Ty Long already has a long resume at the age of 28, having punted for Washington, Pittsburgh, and the British Columbia Lions of the Canadian Football League, where he spent the 2017 and 2018 seasons. This year, he has placed six of 14 punts inside the coffin corner with no touchbacks. Long is grossing 46.1 yards per punt and netting 41.3 per attempt.
Prediction
Young signal-callers usually don’t win in Baltimore. I expect Justin Herbert to play well – he already has 11 career 300-yard games – but I don’t think it will be quite good enough in what should be one of the league’s best games of the week. The Chargers are 4-1 for the first time in seven years, so to win, the Ravens must tackle and cover better than they did against Indianapolis.
Baltimore 24, Los Angeles 20
