Stymied by week-ending games–OT fumble (SNF) and failed 4th Down conversation at the 1-yard line (MNF)–I finished 10-4 (72%) rather than 12-2 (86%). Still, I’ve gone 33-13 (72%) over the last three weeks, and the season’s tally stands at 61-33 (65%). This week, six teams are on a bye (Buffalo, Dallas, Minnesota, LAC, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh), leaving only 13 games to pick. Well, 11, actually (see below).
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Los Angeles Rams 40, Detroit 6 / Arizona 38, Houston 9 – Moving on….
Cleveland 30, Denver 17 (Thursday night) – This was the late-1980’s matchup that decided three AFC Championship Games in four years. All of those games went Denver’s way in games nicknamed The Drive, The Fumble, and The Blowout. Nobody remembers The Blowout and it’s doubtful that anyone will remember this one, either. Denver had a golden opportunity to make some AFC West Division waves against a downtrodden Las Vegas team last week but couldn’t. Beware a red flag, though: the Browns have allowed 84 points in losing two straight.
Baltimore 31, Cincinnati 15 – There’s no doubt that the Bengals are much better than at any time since 2015 when they won the most recent of their four AFC North Division titles. With four wins in 2021, they have already equaled last year’s win total. But the Ravens aren’t any team. Heading for a bye next week, they are meeting and beating the NFL’s best. There’s more, too. In controlling LAC last Sunday, Baltimore covered well and befuddled yet another young quarterback. Joe Burrow is likely to be the next name on that list. Joe Mixon is a good, dual-threat running back, but his career numbers against the Ravens are well below par. If that wasn’t enough, consider this: an understaffed Bengal secondary should have lots of trouble against Baltimore’s upgraded passel of airborne weapons.
Green Bay 27, Washington 10 – The Packers are racking up the wins, as usual, but what’s not normal about this year’s Green Bay team is how they are doing it. No longer a devastating outfit (on either side of the ball), Green Bay is finding normal ways to win. This week, they get a break in the schedule, returning to their Lambeau Field fortress to play the woefully underachieving Washington Football Team. Back in the early ’80s, the teams hooked up in what was (at the time) the highest-scoring MNF game in history. This time? Not.
New England 37, New York Jets 9 – The Jets, coming off a bye, have the hard luck of running into a division opponent that played its heart out last week at home against Dallas, falling in OT. The Patriots are playing at home again and should be able to keep their fans cheering for the full sixty minutes.
Kansas City 26, Tennessee 19 – Ravens fans certainly remember what happened after the Titans came to Baltimore and knocked the top-seeded Ravens out of the 2019 playoffs. One week after that, the Titans traveled out to Kansas City for a logistical shot at a Super Bowl berth, one that, realistically, they weren’t going to win. The Titans are the hosts for this one, and–despite a thrilling win over Buffalo last week–this team has too many holes that Patrick Mahomes and Co. can exploit. Even better news for the Chiefs is that their defense finally put together a dominating, consistent effort at Washington last week.
Miami 20, Atlanta 17 – As professional football’s popularity began to boom in the mid-to-late-’60s, the South and Southeast were growth areas that the competing AFL and NFL wanted to conquer. As a result, the Dolphins were born in 1966 into the AFL, and the Falcons took flight in the NFL around the same time. They have occasionally rewarded their fans with Super Bowl berths and Vince Lombardi Trophies. Still, their more recent histories are laced with futility, especially in Miami’s case. What about this week? The Dolphins’ five-game losing streak seemed to hit a nadir last week in London with a tough loss to the then-winless Jacksonville side. Atlanta is coming off a bye, and it should find the going tough against the better, fired-up Dolphins. Dolphins win.
Carolina 27, New York Giants 6 – The Panthers have let two straight home games get away from them, and it’s clear that this team misses injured dual-threat back Christian McCaffrey. He won’t be back for this week’s trip to New York, but the Panthers should have more than enough firepower–especially on defense–to take care of the Giants, a squad that was blasted last week by the Los Angeles Rams.
Philadelphia 22, Las Vegas 17 – The host Raiders have been roiled by off-field controversy, but they gathered themselves to win last week. Now, they get to face the visiting Eagles, a team that showed some fight at home last Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Bucs. The ensuing 10-day break will serve the Eagles well. Playing the Raiders (a team that isn’t likely to turn last week’s win into a pattern) should translate into a much-needed W for the visitors.
Tampa Bay 40, Chicago 20 – The Buccaneers used to be part of the old NFC Central, formerly known as “The Black And Blue Division.” That was then. Today, the NFL Central isn’t what it used to be, and Tampa Bay is the NFL’s defending champ. The Bucs will host the Bears and highly-touted Justin Fields this week. Fields have shown flashes of being a better-than-average quarterback, but, on this day, he’ll be going up against a master, Tom Brady. Game. Set. Match. Bucs.
San Francisco 23, Indianapolis 13 (Sunday night) – San Francisco is coming off its bye into a home game against a team that bounced back last week from a devastating Week 5 loss in Baltimore. The 49ers need to win this one to keep pace in the rugged NFC West. If they don’t, it will be reminiscent of the 2001 game between these two teams when an inferior ‘Niner team won, leading then Colts’ head coach, Jim Mora, Sr., to say, “Playoffs? What playoffs?!” I’m going with the home team in a very important game for both the 2-4 Colts and 2-3 49ers.
New Orleans 24, Seattle 16 (Monday night) – Way back in 2010–when the NFC West was even worse than the AFC South is now–Seattle won the division with a losing record and went on to beat the visiting Saints in a playoff game that featured Marshawn Lynch’s “Earthquake Run.” That win is one reason why I usually pick the Seahawks at home due, in part, to its home-field advantage (one of the league’s loudest crowds). But this time, the home team doesn’t have either Russell Wilson or enough talent/depth to make up for his loss.
