Going 12-4 in Week 5 (23-9 over the last two weeks) brings my season’s total to 51-29 (64%). The byes are upon us, and there are only 14 games on the docket. Atlanta, New Orleans, the Jets, and San Francisco have the week off.
NOTE: All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Tampa Bay 33, Philadelphia 13 (Thursday night) – These two teams met in the 2002 NFC title game, which also happened to be the final contest played at warped, musty old Veterans Stadium. A late interception runback for a score by Ronde Barber sealed the Eagles’ fate as the Buccaneers went on to Super Bowl 37 in San Diego, which they won over the then-Oakland Raiders. Fast-forward 19 seasons, and here we are again with a championship-caliber Tampa Bay squad, and … wait a minute … the Eagles are nowhere near that good this time around.
Jacksonville 23, Miami 17 (Sunday morning, London) – At the very least, the Jaguars – contractually obligated to play one home game in London every year – know the routine and how to deal with the irregular logistics of the trip. For that reason, I’ve picked Jacksonville–warts and all–to win, even though the Jags are on a 20-game losing streak.
Baltimore 24, Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Despite all the incredible things that Lamar Jackson has done, the negative comments he elicits almost always start with people recollecting “that game,” namely, the 2018 Wild Card Weekend playoff game against (you guessed it) this very same opponent. Los Angeles played as many as seven and eight defensive backs on nearly every play to counter Jackson’s speed and elusiveness, and the plan worked. The difference these days is that the Ravens seem to have a younger, faster, more diverse set of skill-position options on which Jackson can draw. And should Charger defensive backs try to bother Jackson in the pocket, he has proven this year that he can get rid of the ball quickly enough to slow them down. It’s easy to predict that Justin Herbert will have a good game (he already has 11 career 300-yard games), but I don’t think it will be enough in this one. That said, the Chargers are 4-1 for the first time in seven years. To win, the Ravens must tackle and cover better than they did v. Indianapolis. (Ya think?)
Cincinnati 23, Detroit 12 – In past years, I would refer to this matchup as the “Game Of The Weak,” but the Bengals have raised their level of play, while the Lions seem to keep getting sucker-punched every single week. The game against Cincinnati is at Detroit’s Ford Field, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Besides, the Bengals won’t have to travel too far to celebrate another win in their renaissance season–the best that team has done since winning the AFC North in 2015.
Kansas City 40, Washington 20 – WFT is entrenched in a tough stretch of games, this time against the Super Bowl 54 champions, a team that is trying to escape the AFC West cellar. Yes, there’s a sense of urgency in the air for this underperforming team. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Josh Gordon, and Company will need to come through for the Chiefs to leave town with a W. The WFT’s defense–strong in theory, but not as strong in reality–won’t be able to make enough stops to keep the inevitable from happening.
Indianapolis 24, Houston 23 – The Texans made an admirable effort at home against New England last week before losing in the final minute. Now, Houston goes on the road for a critical division game at Lucas Oil Stadium. You wouldn’t think a bottom-feeding team like the Texans would be playing a pivotal game, but that’s how bad the AFC South Division is. The Colts have essential players injured, and those guys must be healthy to keep hope alive in Indy.
Green Bay 24, Chicago 16 – The Packers, winners of four straight, had to sweat out in OT v. Cincinnati. Snd this week, Green Bay is on the road again to play its bitter, century-old rival. But, as in any archrivalry, teams go through ebbs and flows, and, right now, Green Bay is better despite its recent struggles. (Hint: KICKING)
Carolina 29, Minnesota 19 – Carolina allowed an inept team (aka Philadelphia) to stay in the game last week, and a blocked punt allowed the Eagles to leave town with a win. The Panthers are home again this week to play a hard-to-figure, enigmatic Vikings squad that barely won a home win over woeful Detroit. The heartbreak of the loss to the Eagles had to affect Carolina, but I genuinely feel the Panthers are the more consistent team and (I might add) the better team. (The Vikings have a lot to address during their bye next week.)
Los Angeles Rams 37, New York Giants 17 – This game features the two biggest media markets in the nation and two of the most storied, traditional, and stalwart franchises in the league. But when one looks at the Giants these days, one doesn’t see a team living up to its legacy. Injury-riddled Big Blue looks more like small periwinkle at this point, while the Rams won a challenging NFC West game on the road in Seattle. Years ago, a matchup like this would be tough to pick, but not today. This game opens a relatively soft part of the Rams’ schedule with Detroit (home), Houston (away), and Tennessee (home) to follow.
Arizona 31, Cleveland 24 – The league’s only remaining undefeated team has shown that it can win high-scoring games and defensive battles. Now, Arizona hits the road to the Lake Erie shores to play a Brown’s squad that still hasn’t shown the kind of defensive improvement it’s going to need to take the next step. Close means no cigar. And, this week, Cleveland goes up against the exciting, flexible Cardinals–a team that is 5-0 for the first time since 1974 when it called St. Louis home and played in the NFC East.
Dallas 30, New England 17 – After gutting out an unnecessarily close game in Houston last week, the Patriots return home to face “that other” Texas team. the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are, as expected, separating themselves from a sorry pack of NFC East rivals, and now catch the formerly dynastic Patriots at just the right time. New England quarterback Mac Jones has shown plenty of moxie and much more ability than his fellow rookie signal-callers. Still, the Dallas defense has improved to the point where rookies under center should be concerned. I don’t see any way the Patriot offense can keep pace in this one. Dallas has won four straight and is 4-1 for the first time since 2016 when it finished 13-3.
Denver 31, Las Vegas 26 – I was wrong when I assumed that Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater wouldn’t play last week at Pittsburgh. He recovered from the concussion Baltimore gave him and directed a late comeback that almost panned out. Now, the Broncos get to go back home to face a Raiders squad reeling from obstacles on and off the field. Besides, these AFC West Division rivals know each other well. In a game like this, I tend to favor the home team.
Seattle 26, Pittsburgh 13 (Sunday night) – Before the Steelers head for their bye next week, they have a home game against another high-profile team that is struggling in a very tough division. The cross-country trip won’t affect Seattle that much, but Russell Wilson’s finger injury will. His departure left the ‘Hawks in the hands of nine-year, seldom-seen NFL veteran Geno Smith. Still, I believe Seattle has more offensive firepower than Pittsburgh these days.
Buffalo 36, Tennessee 24 (Monday night) – Buffalo is heading for its bye after this nationally-televised road game. Its opponent–the Titans–feature a lot of skill-position talent but not much resilience in the interior lines. The Bills have elevated their program to the level that they can compete with anybody in the league, which is something you can’t say this year about Tennessee. There will not be a “Music City Miracle” redux Monday night largely because the Bills are hitting on all cylinders these days.
