It has been a slow, challenging climb back to where I feel I should be, going 11-5 in Week Four, bringing my year-to-date record to 39-25 (.610). Picking Week 5 games isn’t for the faint of heart because of two marquee NFC West Division matchups and a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game.
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Seattle 31, Los Angeles Rams 27 (Thursday night) – The Rams, averaging 31 points per game and beating three teams by an average margin of 20, had looked like the best team in the NFL through the season’s first three weeks. But they came a-cropper at home against the resurgent Cardinals. Games like that one–and this Thursday Night in Seattle–are why the NFC West is football’s best division. The Seahawks are fresh off a good road win at San Francisco and, now, they return home to one of the league’s loudest home crowds. A football season is full of twists and turns, and a big twist in this division took place last week. I see that new pattern continuing here.
Atlanta 23, New York Jets 9 (Sunday morning, London) – Both of these teams will have their bye after their long trip to London, but there’s a larger issue here. Is THIS what we’re sending to grow an interest in the game? Yikes! I’m sure the English fans would find a 0-0 soccer match more entertaining than watching these two teams play the American version of football. But, like fans on our side of the pond, the English are probably starving to get out to the stadiums to watch cricket, soccer, rugby, and all the things they usually enjoy. Oh, on the field …. the Falcons win.
Pittsburgh 20, Denver 19 – Denver had feasted on winless, bottom-feeder teams over the season’s first three weeks before running smack into Baltimore’s brick wall. That said, Pittsburgh has fallen a lot further than even their most harsh detractors thought it would. The Steelers are at home for this one, but that doesn’t seem to be making much of a difference these days. But one thing in the Steelers’ favor is that Teddy Bridgewater is likely to miss this game with a concussion and Drew Lock will have to take over. Two desperate teams are matching up in a crucial game. By the slimmest of margins, I’ll take Pittsburgh.
Green Bay 30, Cincinnati 20 – The Bengals will have had ten days off after a pulsating Thursday-night home win over Jacksonville, and they get to stay home to take on Aaron Rodgers and Co. If this game had been played as recently as a year ago, I’d take the Packers in a blowout, but Cincinnati has come to life this year. I thought the Bengals would be just a little better, but they’re 3-1 and hold a share of the AFC North Division lead. Now, they definitely step up in class. I’ll take the Packers to use their winning culture to pull away late. (Note: Aaron Rodgers now has 420 career touchdown passes, tied with Dan Marino for sixth all-time.)
New England 24, Houston 13 – This game looks like a family reunion considering how many employees have worked for both teams. But considering where these sides are this season, it’s the kind of get-together where a few crazy relatives have too much to drink and start fighting. In other words, these are two very desperate and hungry teams. Houston is the home team, but the Patriots will leave town with that fight won, family honor, and a needed win.
Tennessee 26, Jacksonville 17 – Jacksonville comes home after its good effort at Cincinnati in a tough Thursday-night loss. It won’t be easy against a visiting Tennessee side coming off a surprising OT loss to the hapless Jets. In a stunning bit of naivete, Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer has said that the NFL is like “facing Alabama every week.” This time, Urban, you’re not facing Alabama–it’s more like UCLA. But, no matter, the Jags will still lose their 20th straight regular-season game.
Tampa Bay 31, Miami 16 – It’s the Florida state championship game! It’s admirable what the Dolphins have been able to do so far this year, last week’s loss to Indianapolis notwithstanding. But they are truly up against the wall in this game against the defending Super Bowl champions, who have bigger fish to fry outside the Sunshine State. (Or is that shrimp?)
Carolina 27, Philadelphia 16 – The Panthers couldn’t quite match Dallas point-for-point on the road last week, but they return home to play an Eagles squad that is not only inconsistent on offense but banged up to the point of being unrecognizable. Four offensive line starters missed last week’s home loss to Kansas City, and it’s doubtful that all of them will be back for the trip to Charlotte. Sam Darnold is using his legs as effectively as his arm (he has five rushing touchdowns so far this year). The Panther defense, which led the NFL with 14 sacks before getting none at Dallas, will likely get back on track.
Minnesota 23, Detroit 10 – Minnesota keeps burning me time after time. I pick the Vikings to win and I get a loss … and vice versa. Holy Cousins! But these are the Lions, you know, and, well…. It wouldn’t shock me if the Lions were to lose every game for the rest of the year and go 0-16 for a second time (last time, 2008).
New Orleans 24, Washington 12 – The “Team Without a Name” will have no game next week (scheduled for a relatively early bye). But before it kicks back for a bit, it will have to play at home against the visiting Saints, a team smarting from a home OT loss to the previously winless New York Giants. I thought the entire NFC East would be better this year–and WFT is better–but the problem in this game is that its highly-touted, young defense isn’t playing anywhere near to its potential.
Los Angeles Chargers 29, Cleveland 20 – The Browns got an exhausting road win at Minnesota last week. This week, it’s a trip to Los Angeles, a team playing at home, but with a short week following a Monday-night game. Even with that, this is a Chargers team that thoroughly dominated Las Vegas (especially in the first half) and it’s loads better than the Vikings. Clevland leaves town with a loss.
Dallas 37, New York Giants 22 – Dak Prescott is sending a strong message in his first full season (he hopes) back at the Cowboys’ helm, playing at a top-flight level and hitting many different targets in the passing game. Ezekiel Elliott seems to have regained a burst I had thought he lost, and Tony Pollard can provide quite the change of pace. In total, Dallas ran for 245 yards against Carolina. On defense, the ‘Boys are getting after quarterbacks and forcing turnovers, things they didn’t do in 2020…until it was too late. The Giants have done a great job playing in Dallas over the years (they were the first visitors to win at JerryWorld, coming out on top in the first-ever regular-season game there in 2009), but even after an OT win last week, I don’t see them stopping the Dallas momentum. I know that quarterback Daniel Jones is coming off a career-best 402-yard performance, but can he sustain that performance against the Cowboys? I don’t think so.
Las Vegas 31, Chicago 17 – Vegas is coming home after a short week to face an enigmatic Bears team that is coming off a win. The thing is, that victory came against the downtrodden Lions, and now the Bears will have to contend with Derek Carr, who has been one of the league’s most underrated passers over the past two years. Vegas collapsed down the stretch last year. If it happens again this year, it won’t start against the Bears.
Arizona 34, San Francisco 23 – San Francisco is heading for its bye week after this key NFC West Division game. And it can use the rest. The ‘Niners lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) in a home loss to Seattle and must now go on the road to face the revived Cardinals, a team that can explode on offense. San Francisco has been a victim to a slow-start tendency; it has just one first-quarter touchdown all year and that came in Week One against woeful Detroit. Meanwhile, Arizona is off to its best start in nine years even though it has played three of its first four games on the road.
Kansas City 30, Buffalo 27 (Sunday night) – The Chiefs seem to have righted the ship after spending a week in the AFC West cellar for the first time in six years. They are back home this week at noisy Arrowhead Stadium for this prime-time showcase and AFC Championship Game rematch. Buffalo has laid down two consecutive convincing wins over Washington and Houston, but they obviously step up in class with KC. Last week, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid became the first coach to record 100 wins with two different teams. Meanwhile, Buffalo made four INTs and secured its second shutout of the season. I see a close, hotly contested game here. Edge to KC.
Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 17 (Monday night) – Cue the Mayflower moving van footage, please! You know what I mean. Still, it’s hard to believe that these Colts (not the former Colts) are in their 38th NFL season in Indianapolis. That’s six more than the Colts played in Baltimore. While history is often ‘just for the books,’ there will always be a segment of the Charm City population that will never forgive or forget what happened back in 1984. But this is 2021, so what do I think will happen Monday night? The Ravens’ injury situation aside, I predict a comfortable home win.
