ESPN reported that twelve underdogs covered the spread in Week 1–the most in the Super Bowl era. While I don’t pick against the spread and could care less about who Vegas thinks are underdogs, the fact remains that I–like many others–ate humble pie to start the season. Upward!
Like most mothers, my mom would always tell me to wait for at least a half-hour after eating before jumping into the swimming pool. Neither she nor my long-ago swimming instructor would be happy with the fact that all I did in Week One was tread water, posting a mediocre 8-8 record (.500). Admittedly, Week One is the toughest to pick, with many teams not even sure of their own identities, but that’s really no excuse. It’s time to come out of the blocks in Week Two with a Michael Phelps-like explosion as I tackle another full 16-game slate of action. Mr. Starter, fire the gun!
NOTE: All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
New York Giants 23, Washington 15 (Thursday night): I thought the Giants would be a sleeper team that could contend for a wild-card berth. They opened at home against Denver last week and showed nothing that could suggest that they are on their way, losing for the 11th time in their last 14 September games. Maybe a short road trip against a longtime NFC East rival will snap them out of whatever ailed them against the Broncos. For Washington’s part, its loss to the Chargers – by the same four-point margin I predicted – probably taught it that Taylor Heinicke might be the best way to go under center. Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t getting the job done before he left the game with a hip injury.
Pittsburgh 20, Las Vegas 10: The Raiders are traveling east on a short work week after playing at home Monday night against Baltimore. Despite an exhilarating overtime win, it’s just their luck to be going into Pittsburgh, a team that has to be brimming with confidence after winning at Buffalo, a very tough task for any team to pull off. The most satisfying thing for the Steelers is that their newly-configured offensive line got better as the game went on, and the OL did it in a hostile environment.
Cincinnati 22, Chicago 17: The Bengals have already proved their worth against an NFC North Division foe, withstanding a late Minnesota rally to win their home opener in OT on a late field goal. Now, Cincinnati takes to the road against a team not as good as the Vikings and one that faded down the stretch–especially on defense (an alleged strength)–in a national-TV game at Los Angeles last week. The Bengals are showing slight improvement in the short run, a pattern that won’t bear out in the long run. But for now, it has to be encouraging for Queen City fans, especially with rookie wideout JaMarr Chase showing he can actually hold on to the ball.
Cleveland 27, Houston 7: The Browns, time and time again, keep proving that they can’t deal with prosperity on the few occasions this century when they have experienced it. They sprinted out to a 12-point lead at noisy Kansas City last week but wilted under the clutch play of Patrick Mahomes. This week, Cleveland plays its home opener against a Houston team that raised eyebrows with a Week One win. But keep in mind that it came against a mistake-prone Jacksonville team. This time around, they’re facing a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who is a lot more experienced than Trevor Lawrence and more fundamentally sound than Tyrod Taylor.
Buffalo 17, Miami 13: This should be a good, old-fashioned AFC East Division battle in the Florida sunshine between two teams that know each other well. On top of that, they both have division-winning and playoff aspirations. In front of its usually noisy home crowd, Buffalo surprisingly wore down in the second half against Pittsburgh, while Miami hung tough at New England and eked out a one-point win. I don’t think many points will be scored in this game, and whichever team wins won’t provide much of a surprise.
New England 27, New York Jets 9: The neurotic, paranoid Jets fan base had every reason to feel that way after its team lost to a struggling Carolina Panther franchise on the road in Week One. It faces the Big Apple talk show and media wolves going into a home game against AFC East Division rival New England. The Patriots are far from what they were, but they’re good enough to win comfortably here. They did have 36 minutes of possession against Miami last week in a losing cause, but four turnovers doomed them.
San Francisco 29, Philadelphia 15: Two long Eastern road trips are on San Francisco’s agenda to open the season. The team had a veritable field day in Detroit, and now it faces another struggling franchise in Philadelphia. The Eagles did look sharper than expected on the road last week, but that was against an Atlanta team that never seems to get out of its own way.
Denver 26, Jacksonville 10: The Broncos start a second straight road game against a notable young quarterback. Last week, it was Daniel Jones in New York, and this time around, it’s Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. Games like this (with a quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater) give the Broncos a decided edge, no matter where they are played. The challenge, in this case, is that second-year wideout Jerry Jeudy could miss a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
Los Angeles Rams 30, Indianapolis 20: While game scores are admittedly window dressing for me (the object is to pick a winner), I predicted the Rams’ 34-14 win over Chicago last week. The Rams were tops in scoring defense last season, and they have enough offensive weaponry to prosper against any good defense. While the Bears showed them one last week, the Colts will put up an allegedly better one–even though its vaunted interior line units were awful last week. Russell Wilson had his way at Lucas Oil Stadium, and now a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford comes to the nation’s heartland to take his shot at the horseshoe-helmeted Colts.
New Orleans 29, Carolina 19: Saints quarterback Jameis Winston has always been perceived as someone who could be outstanding if he would just cut down on the mistakes. Last week, he did exactly that, and New Orleans rolled to a surprisingly easy win over Green Bay. The nomadic Saints, forced into a road-heavy schedule due to Hurricane Ida, now head to Charlotte to take on the Panthers, a team feeling good about a Week One win. Carolina steps up in class against this opponent, and it’s not likely the Panther defense gets another six sacks this week against the more mobile Winston.
Dallas 31, Los Angeles Chargers 23: The Cowboys were forced to open the season with two straight on the road, going from coast to coast. In Week One, the Cowboys went into the home of the defending Super Bowl champions, forced four turnovers, and nearly won a thoroughly entertaining game. Now, with the extra rest that comes on the back end of a Thursday-night game, I anticipate Dallas getting the 1-1 start. That being said, the Chargers, if healthy, will be a force to be reckoned with this year, especially if Justin Herbert’s caretaking of the football results in another 76-snap effort like last week.
Seattle 37, Tennessee 20: The Titans play in one of the NFL’s worst divisions, and the schedule-maker did them no favors, assigning them to play two teams from the stout NFC West to open the season. They got manhandled at home by Arizona–Chandler Jones sacked Ryan Tannehill five times–and now they go to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that would love to be 2-0 after a solid road win at Indianapolis. Not only that, Seattle is one of the loudest, toughest places to play in the entire league, and with the fans having returned, the Titans could be in big trouble after this one.
Tampa Bay 34, Atlanta 19: To the victors go the spoils, and the defending Super Bowl champions were granted two straight home games to open their title defense. A rugged Dallas team nearly won the opener, but the Buccaneers’ championship mettle prevailed. That, plus the extra rest after a Thursday-night game, means that Tampa Bay should be well-equipped to win its first NFC South matchup of the year. Still, the Buccaneers, a team thin in the secondary, had two key players from that unit get hurt in the opener. That means defending the Falcons’ rookie tight end Kyle Pitts might be even tougher than expected. However, Pitts had only four catches in his debut as the Falcons incurred their worst Week One loss since 1987.
Arizona 30, Minnesota 23: The faith I always seem to be putting in the Vikings keeps getting me burned. The Cardinals put together a complete effort on the road in Week One, laying the lumber to the Tennessee Titans. At the same time, a Minnesota rally in Cincinnati went for naught in overtime. Despite Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and a passel of Minnesota weapons, this team underachieves just enough to make it as mediocre as any other club, and it won’t find the going easy in the desert. The Vikings committed 12 penalties last week, and their lack of depth has been exposed already.
Kansas City 27, Baltimore 20 (Sunday night): The Chiefs’ recent run of success has been characterized by their tendency to keep getting off to good starts. Kansas City has won 15 consecutive games in the season’s first month, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a lifetime September stat line of 35 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Not only that, they have played three prime-time games in Baltimore, winning all of them, including one just last year. On top of everything else, a complete Kansas City squad–one not as deep as Baltimore–is healthier, and that’s an important edge. Lamar Jackson and his teammates will certainly do their best to break the Chiefs’ maddening hex. Still, though, I must pick KC.
Green Bay 40, Detroit 17 (Monday night): The Lions have to be considered the NFL’s version of baseball’s Baltimore Orioles, a bottom-feeding team that keeps adding young players with potential that don’t seem to manifest themselves, at least not right away. Allowing a staggering 11 yards per play for most of the game, Detroit was blown away on its own home field by San Francisco before a futile rally, and now it must venture to Lambeau Field. Naturally, it’s too. That said if the Pack can’t run the ball any better than it did in Week One–and if their defense allows another 163 on the ground–it could be in trouble. The loss to the Saints was the Packers’ worst Week One defeat since 1970.
