Most of you know how we do it here. No silly point-spread talk and no inane Fantasy stuff. Just no-frills, common-sense analysis with history lessons thrown in. Off we go! It’s NFL 2021.
It’s time for another NFL season, the 102nd in league history. With an extra week of games, there will be 272 regular-season contests to pick, up from the usual 256 we’ve had since 2002. At the very least, my goal this year is to beat last year’s win total of 158 wins. But the real prize is topping my all-time win total of 168, which I set in 2011.
NOTE: All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Tampa Bay 33, Dallas 20 (Thursday night): I truly feel the Cowboys will be a lot better this year, as will the entire NFC East. But what the Buccaneers did in the offseason is remarkable in the salary-cap era. The team brought back every single one of their 22 starters on a team that won the Super Bowl. That just doesn’t happen, but Bruce Arians is the kind of guy to turn convention on its ear. In this game, there are still questions about Dak Prescott’s health, while Tom Brady is … well … Tom Brady. On top of everything else, standout Dallas guard Zack Martin will miss this game (COVID).
Buffalo 26, Pittsburgh 13: The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most talked-about teams in the league annually. Glittering history is the main reason why. With a roster too young in some spots, too old in others, and too thin in a few more, a road game against the AFC runners-up will be a good litmus test to see exactly where Pittsburgh is right now.
Minnesota 40, Cincinnati 17: Even though Carl Eller, Alan Page, Jim Marshall, and the rest of the long-ago “Purple People Eaters” aren’t walking through the door, the Vikings’ pass rush should have a field day against a Cincinnati offensive line riddled with questions. The Paul Brown Stadium crowd won’t be pleased.
Atlanta 29, Philadelphia 18: I don’t think even the Audobon Society wants much to do with this game involving two bird-mascot teams. The Eagles lacked an offense in 2020, while the Falcons’ defense cost the team several wins. Atlanta is at home, so I’ll take it to win a game that could set the sport back years. This is my co-favorite for the NFL “Game of the Weak.”
Los Angeles Chargers 24, Washington 20: Washington is a town where health care gets talked about a lot. But the opinions of those on Capitol Hill mean nothing when it comes to this game because it’s the visiting Chargers’ health that will be closely scrutinized this year. Since the current playoff format was adopted in 1990, at least four new teams have made the playoffs, a remarkable streak. The Chargers could be one of those squads in ’21, but they’ll have to deal with a young WFT defensive line that is one of the league’s best.
Carolina 31, New York Jets 13: The Panthers are one of those teams people watched closely during the offseason. Why? They could make an upward move in the NFC South and possibly even nail a playoff berth. They open at home against the Jets, a team putting its stock in #2 overall pick Zach Wilson, having jettisoned former first-rounder Sam Darnold, who now leads – you guessed it – the Panthers! Do you think Darnold and ex-Jet teammate Robby Anderson will have something to prove to the visiting Green and White? You bet!
Jacksonville 27, Houston 17: Jacksonville won its season opener last year, and all seemed right with the world. Then, the sky fell in, and the Jaguars lost 15 in a row to close the campaign. That’s bad enough. But the situation in Houston could be even worse, a team that is likely to experience many long afternoons this year. That’s why this is my other co-fav for NFL “Game of the Weak.” On the bright side, new Jaguar quarterback Trevor Lawrence should make a good first impression in a road win.
Seattle 33, Indianapolis 23: The Colts have been beset with key injuries in training camp, and they have a daunting home opener against the Seahawks. To me, Seattle is the NFC version of Baltimore–a team with a dynamic quarterback that will always be in contention. In recent years, one reason for the Ravens’ revival has been much-improved road play, and Seattle will need the same kind of performance to take down Indianapolis. The ‘Hawks are clearly better – not to mention healthier – at present. Indianapolis will especially miss wideout TY Hilton, who is expected to miss at least several weeks.
San Francisco 34, Detroit 10: The 49er franchise has won five Super Bowls, the first of which took place at the old Silverdome in Pontiac, MI. Despite the offseason hullaballoo over whether rookie Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo will grab the starting job, it shouldn’t matter against the Lions. San Francisco will win this opener over a team with a rookie coach who’s best known for wanting his guys to bite opponents’ ankles. Creepy.
Tennessee 31, Arizona 24: The problem for Arizona is that it plays in a very tough division. The Cardinals added some terrific pieces to its roster over the spring and summer, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to make much headway in the division or to beat the Titans, for that matter. There’s a lot more optimism in Tennessee. That said, the home-standing Titans face a challenge–Kyler Murray … and, as the season unfolds, all the other primetime QBs they’ll face this year. Tennessee didn’t do very well in that department last year.
Kansas City 30, Cleveland 20: Is this a possible AFC Championship Game preview? I’ve heard that bunk already, and my response is …. (unprintable). The reality is that home fans can’t wait to jam Arrowhead Stadium, and the Browns haven’t won a Week One game since 2004. ‘Nuff said.
Miami 20, New England 10: In the AFC East, the changing of the guard took place two seasons ago. The Dolphins went up to New England in the season’s final weekend and won on a last-second Mike Gesicki touchdown catch. The Patriots haven’t been the same since, and here come the Dolphins to Foxborough, this time to open the ’21 schedule. Brian Flores is one of the league’s most underrated head coaches. And even though future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick doesn’t often lose at home, things aren’t what they used to be in the Hub. And this year, Belichick is going “Back to the Future.” QB Mac Jones will be the first rookie QB to start a Week One game for NE since Drew Bledsoe did it 28 years ago.
New York Giants 24, Denver 17: A long time ago, these teams met in Super Bowl 21. The Giants eventually wore down the Broncos thanks to better coaching and fundamental execution, and Joe Judge and his troops may do that again this week. NYG has a home opener against a Bronco squad starving for better quarterback play. Will they get it from acquisition Teddy Bridgewater? Perhaps. But the betting line is that there will be growing pains, not a quick fix. Giants win.
Green Bay 23, New Orleans 16: This could have been the marquee game of Week One. But “could” just doesn’t fit these days, not with Drew Brees’ retirement, Michael Thomas’ injury, and Aaron Rodgers’ waffling. What doesn’t help the Saints is having this game moved from the newly-renamed Caesars Superdome to Jacksonville, courtesy of Hurricane Ida. Packers have enough to win.
Los Angeles Rams 34, Chicago 14 (Sunday night): Reports from the Bears’ training camp suggest that former Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields is playing well and fitting in with his new teammates. But will it really matter? My take is that last year’s playoff berth was a one-off and that Chicago will fall back in ’21–no matter who is at the helm–Fields or vet Andy Dalton. And while the Rams have been beset already by key injuries, they’re the better team and should win this home prime-time opener.
Baltimore 31, Las Vegas 16 (Monday night): The talk around last year’s NFL season was that road teams benefited greatly from the lack of fans and noise. Do the numbers bear out that assertion? Not really. Road teams won 48% of their games in 2019, and that percentage went up only slightly last season. But everything is contextual, right? in Allegiant Stadium’s second year, this will be the first game that will feature a full crowd of Silver-and-Black-loving fans. What does that mean for the Ravens? It means they just need to play their game. The Lamar Jackson Era is the reason. Besides, Baltimore has won five straight Week One games by a combined total of 177-26.
