That’s how many fans and pundits are framing Saturday’s semifinal tournament games. Will things turn out that way? Here’s my take.
I’m going with the prevailing opinion: Baylor-Houston will be a tussle, and the ‘Zags will turn away the Bruins of UCLA.
At issue is not just whether I’m right, but–even if I am–will it be the Bears or Cougars in Monday’s final?
I picked the Bears to be in the Final Four (‘Zags, too), but I’m uber-impressed with the Cougars and Quintin Grimes (18 PPG), Justin Gorham (9 RPG), and Dejon Jarreau (4.4 APG). Add Marcus Sasser to the mix, too. He averages over 30 minutes a game and is a double-figure scorer. As a team, the Cougs are second in the nation in both defensive points allowed per game and scoring margin, and they are on an 11-game winning streak.
Although Vegas has Baylor a 5-point pick, and ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has it BU 52-48%, I’m going with Houston. Kelvin Sampson has this team playing winning basketball–not good enough to beat Gonzaga, mind you–but good enough to get the chance on Monday.
While the Cougars may not get that opportunity, I’ll be amazed (stupefied, actually) if the ‘Zags end up watching the national championship on TV in Saturday’s other game. Why? GU has talent and teamwork, unlike I’ve seen in a very long time.
The betting line is -14 Gonzaga, and ESPN calculates that the ‘Dogs have a 90% chance (pre-game) of winning. Those are monster calculations, reminiscent of what major teams get when they play November home games against mid-major squads. But this ain’t Syracuse v. Bryant in the Carrier Dome.
So are those out-of-line numbers? I don’t think so. While I admire and respect what UCLA has accomplished, the Bruins don’t sport an impressive body of work. Yes, success achieved by this 11-seed can’t be scoffed at, but it’s not uncommon for college basketball teams to go on post-season runs.
The only question is whether teams on a run–like UCLA is on now–can go all the way. Most don’t, but some do. Perhaps the most notable examples were Rollie Massimino’s 1984-85 Villanova Wildcats and the 2010-11 UConn Huskies, led by the indefatigable (who’s still coaching) Jim Calhoun.
But I don’t see UCLA in that category. Even if you believe Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, Jr., and company can sustain their stellar play–and that Coach Cronin can put together yet another stellar game plan–3o-0 Gonzaga stands on the other side of the court. Do you really think Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, and Jalen Suggs will play badly enough for the ‘Dogs to go down? Yes, anything is possible–a bad shooting night, a major injury, or an out-of-their-mind shooting opponent–but what are the odds? Low.
That’s why I think the ‘Zags will advance against my pick, the Houston Cougars.
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Postscript for the Record: My final record for the Elite 8 was 3-1 (missed on the Wolverines), and I also missed two picks in the Sweet 16 (Loyola and Alabama). My overall S16+E8 record was 73% (I did not make a pick in the USC-Oregon game). As for the Final Four, the Monday after Selection Sunday I picked Gonzaga, Baylor, Alabama, and Illinois. My Final Four batting average settled at 50%.
