NCAA Final: Will the ‘Zags Prevail?

Like many fans and pundits, I thought the semifinals would feature a tight contest (Houston-Baylor) and a blowout (Gonzaga over UCLA). Saturday brought the flip side of those calls–Baylor manhandled Houston, and the ‘Zags survived, but barely. What now? 

Vegas has it -4.5 Gonzaga, and ESPN pegs the ‘Dogs with a 55% chance of winning. So who do I have?

I pick GU to win the title. And that’s saying something for a twice-over Big 12 graduate who believes that the Big 12 was the best major conference this year– where just about every game was a grind-it-out affair. Gonzaga, on the other hand, didn’t have to grind it out in conference play. It’s a national power team playing in a mid-major league–the favorite in every West Coast Conference game it played this year. Only BYU (a conference newcomer) stood in the Bulldogs’ way, and GU won all three contests by ten or more points.

For one, it’s how Gonzaga performs against the spread. You would think a 31-0 squad would prevail consistently, if not easily, but that hasn’t been the case. The Dogs failed to cover 15 times this year. GU certainly didn’t cover Saturday night (-14.5), but it did cover in the previous three tournament games against USC -8.5, Creighton -12.5, and Oklahoma -15.5. Gonzaga won all of those games by double-digits. But not so v. UCLA, even though the ‘Zags shot nearly 60% from the field, had 26 assists on 37 baskets (70%), and had twice as many steals as the Bruins. So what’s up?

First of all, Gonzaga doesn’t do itself a favor by jacking up 3-balls. This hot-shooting team from two averages about 33% from distance. To beat Baylor, the ‘Zags need to attack the basket, shoot from 15-feet in, and not fall in love with the three.

On Saturday night, UCLA, not Gonzaga, owned the boards. That stat bears watching against Baylor. GU was in foul trouble, too, and that’s why it took courage for four-foul Drew Timme to hold his ground at the end of regulation. Luckily (for him and Gonzaga), it paid off with a charge call and no free throws for the Bruins.

There’s more, too. You would think that such a good-shooting team would shoot well from the foul line, but these ‘Zags are an up-and-down foul-shooting bunch. They shot 60% against Creighton and UCLA, and that just won’t for a team that frequently goes to the line 20+ times a game. The OU game is more like it (23-26).

So, while I like the ‘Zags to win, patterns in Monday’s game will tell the tale. GU must control Mark Vital on the boards and contain Jared Butler’s shooting (nearly 50% from the field this year, including 42% from distance). And the ‘Zags primary players–Drew Timme and Jalen Suggs (especially) can’t spend time on the bench with foul trouble. (Add Corey Kispert to that list.) And the ‘Zags must hit from the charity stripe.

With the talent he has, the key is to keep the ‘Zags from doing what they do well and nudge them into areas where they don’t excel. While that’s the ticket to beat any team, 31-0 Gonzaga isn’t any team. On the other side of the court, Mark Few has to emphasize the obvious–attack the basket, battle under the boards without racking up fouls, shoot the three sparingly, and hit your free throws. Gonzaga did only one of those things (attack the basket) v. UCLA.

Big gulp (then) in picking Gonzaga to win….

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For the Record: I was 1-1 in the Semifinals (50%, missed on Houston), 3-1 in the Elite 8 (75%, missed on the Wolverines), and 5-2 in the Sweet 16 (71%, missed on Loyola and Alabama, and I didn’t pick USC v. Oregon) for an overall record of 69%. As for the Final Four, the Monday after Selection Sunday, I predicted Gonzaga, Baylor, Alabama, and Illinois to reach the final weekend. I picked Baylor-Alabama to play for the National Championship (both predictions, 50%).