Bravo Oral Roberts, Ohio, North Texas, Drake, Loyola, and Abilene Christian!
I thought it might be ‘The Year of the Mid-Major,’ and it just might turn out that way. It’s because mid-major teams–colloquially called ‘bracket busters’– performed admirably in the Opening Round of the men’s NCAA basketball tournament. We’ll see what happens from here.
I didn’t pick Oral Roberts (#15), North Texas (#13), or Ohio (#13) to advance, and they turned in stunning upsets against Ohio State, Purdue, and Virginia, respectively.
Of my nine picks (the 10th, VCU, had to stand down because of COVID), three teams won outright–Drake (#11), Loyola (#8 and the only mid-major to be favored in the First Round), and Abilene Christian (#14). A fourth team, UCSB (#12), lost by a point. Together with two other teams, UNCG (#13) and Grand Canyon (#15), those three squads lost but covered the point spread.
Won
#11 DRAKE v. #11 Wichita State (play-in game): I wasn’t uber-confident that the Bulldogs would win, but tenacity proved to be the difference. Nifty guard, Joseph Yesufu, came up big with 21 points, and DU nipped Wichita State, 53-52, on Dexter Dennis’s 3-pointer with 10 seconds left in the game. Yesufu did himself one better against USC by netting 26 points, but the Bulldogs bowed out against the Trojans. No tears in Des Moines, though, as Drake ended a fabulous year at 26-4.
#8 LOYOLA v. #9 Georgia Tech: This is a down year for the Atlantic Coast Conference, and I didn’t think ACC tournament-champ Tech would advance against an excellent Loyola team. It didn’t. The Ramblers balanced scoring (four players scoring in double figures) proved to be the difference. But going into the game, I did have pause for thought. My concern was that LU would over-rely on center Cameron Krutwig, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists–an unusual trifecta for a big man. While Krutwig played a good game (28 minutes, 66% shooting), others pitched in notably, including guards Lucas Williamson (21 points) and sharpshooting Branden Norris (16 points).
That trio came through again v. #1-seed Illinois, the Big Ten champ.
Loyola dismantled the Illini. How so? The Ramblers owned the stat lines with a higher shooting percentage, more rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, and fewer turnovers. LUC reminds me of John Wooden’s teams of old–the way basketball should be played.
#14 ABILENE CHRISTIAN v. #3 Texas: I kept telling people all week, “Watch out for ACU!” Who? Well, millions know the name today. What’s more, fans know who Joe Pleasant is. The forward grabbed a loose ball, was fouled, sank two free throws, and then intercepted a pass to win the game. In my pre-game assessment, I wrote that ACU’s energy and talent could spell trouble for a ‘Horns team that “can be good, average, and…well…something worse.” On this day, UT just wasn’t good enough to win. A massive Lone Star upset it was.
Lost but Covered
#12 UCSB vs. #5 Creighton: “UCSB wins with talent, execution, and standout play” I wrote last week, and the team got all three against the Blue Jays. It just wasn’t enough to win in a ‘what might-have-been’ game. The closing sequence explains why.
After CU’s Christian Bishop sank two free throws to put his team up 63-62, UCSB’s big man, Amadou Sow, missed a layup and committed a foul in the process. But CU’s Shereef Mitchell missed the throw, and UCSB got the rebound. An off-the-mark 3-pointer with 1-second left spelled the difference.
#12 UNCG v. #5 Florida State: The Big Dance means playing under the glare of big lights, and UNCG played like a deer in headlights for a good share of the first half. The Spartans scored only two points in the game’s first eight minutes and trailed 23-7 with 7 minutes left. The Spartans rallied, cut the lead to three by the half, and tied it 15 seconds into the final stanza. But the bigger, stronger Seminoles were just two much despite repeated UNCG rallies, the last of which trimmed the lead to one point (51-50) with five minutes left. While better overall play from star Isaiah Miller could have spelled the difference against beatable FSU, in the end, the Spartans didn’t have enough to overcome a frigid start. UNCG ends the year 21-9.
#15 GRAND CANYON v. #2 Iowa: I thought this game could have been what the Oral Roberts win turned out to be–a massive upset. But I also wrote, “I think this game will turn on how easily the Hawks will score against a team known for energic play.” Well, UI scored and scored and scored, hitting 54% for the game, including 46% (10-22) from three-point land. As I had suspected, the Antelopes’ big man, Asbjorn Midgaard, held his own against Luca Garza, who may end up being named national player of the year.
But GCU couldn’t keep up with the sharpshooting Hawkeyes despite topping the Big Ten rep in rebounds and assists and having only seven turnovers on the game.
Lost and Failed to Cover
#14 COLGATE v. #3 Arkansas: The Red Raiders were up by 14 points with 5:30 left in the first half, but the Hogs rallied big-time to go up by three points at the half. The ‘Gate wasn’t finished, though. The Patriot League team led by as many as five points with 14 minutes left and was down by a like-number of points with 7 minutes remaining. While UA’s 17-point win (85-68) appears to be a blowout, the final margin came late.
Colgate won the rebounding and assists battle, but it lost two other telling stats–steals (Arkansas had 11) and turnovers (Colgate had 22). Poor ballhandling. Can’t win that way.
#12 WINTHROP v. #5 Villanova: Oh, my! One-loss Winthrop didn’t play like a one-loss team. Indeed, WU didn’t play like a team that deserved to be in the tournament. And its poor play came against a Villanova team that’s hobbled by injuries. The Eagles came back to trail by one at the half and remained competitive after that (largely because of D.J. Burns’s stellar play). But PG Chandler Vaudrin had another so-so game (only 9 points on 2-10 shooting), and nobody other than Burns scored in double figures. These Eagles (23-2) laid an egg.
#9 ST. BONAVENTURE v. #8 LSU: The Bonnies had the Tigers right where they wanted them–in a slow-down, execute-with-care game. But that made no matter, even against this iffy opponent.
While the Bonnies starting players are a talented bunch, they didn’t have a good shooting day (33%) and were outrebounded +20 by the much taller Tigers.
Comparing the Numbers
So, in the end, how did I do? In February, I picked a baker’s dozen of mid-majors that I thought could be bracket busters come opening weekend. Ten of those teams gained bids to the NCAA tournament, and nine played (VCU excepted). The nine broke out equally into three groups–won, lost/covered, and lost/didn’t cover.
How does my 2021 performance compare to 2019 predictions? (Remember, no tournament was played in 2020). Here are 13 teams that I picked on March 21, 2019: #6 Buffalo, #3 Houston, #8 Utah State, #7 Wofford, #12 New Mexico State, #12 Murray State, #14 Northern Kentucky, #7 Nevada Reno, #12 Liberty, #11, Belmont, #13 Vermont, #14 Yale, and #13 Cal-Irvine.
Here’s how they did:
Won: Belmont (team beaten…Temple), Liberty (Mississippi State), Murray State (Marquette), Buffalo (Arizona State), UC-Irvine (Kansas State), Wofford (Seton Hall), and Houston (Georgia State)
Lost: Yale, Vermont, Northern Kentucky, Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico State.
In 2019, 54% of my picks prevailed in Round 1 versus 33% this year. I’ll take either number because just about every pick is a big underdog.
No matter how things turn out, I always have fun. I went to a small college, and it’s satisfying to see lesser-known, almost never-in-the-news teams compete and win. I like the way Matshona Dhliwao puts it, “Small stars still light up big skies.”
Enjoy the rest of the tournament!
