In mid-February, I made a Bakers Dozen picks of mid-majors that could surprise in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. How are my teams doing?
Short answer? Great! Eight of my thirteen picks are in the tournament, and as many as three conference second-place finishers could get at-large bids later today when brackets are revealed.
Here’s the skinny. Data presented include team record in Feb/today & NCAA NET Ranking Feb 14/Mar 12.
Qualified for NCAA Tournament (N=8)
Loyola (Missouri Valley), 18-4/24-4, #10/#10: Loyola beat Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship game
UNC Greensboro (Southern), 15-6/21-8, #92/#85: UNCG beat Mercer in the Southern Conference Championship game
Winthrop (Big South), 18-1/23-1, #67/#54: Winthrop beat Campbell in the Big South Conference Championship game
UC Santa Barbara (Big West), 14-3/22-4, #49/#55: UCSB beat UC Irvine in the Big West Conference game
Abilene Christian (Southland), 18-3/23-4, #74/#83: ACU beat Nicholls in Southland Conference championship game
Grand Canyon (WAC), 12-3, 17-6, #114/#117: GCU beat New Mexico State in the Western Athletic Conference championship game
Colgate (Patriot), 9-1/14-1, #11/#8: CU beat Loyola (MD) in the Patriot League championship game
St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10), 10-3/16-4, #41/#28: SBU beat VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference championship game.
Lost in Conference Championship Game, Could Get At-Large Bid (N=3)
Belmont (Ohio Valley), 22-1/26-4, #63/#89: BU lost to Morehead State in the Ohio Valley Championship game
Drake (Missouri Valley), 20-2/24-3, #35/#43: Drake lost to Loyola in the Missouri Valley Championship game
Virginia Commonwealth (Atlantic 10), 15-4/19-7, #31/#35: VCU lost to SBU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game.
Out of the NCAA Tournament (N=2)
Wright State (Horizon), 17-4/18-6, #59/#71: WSU won the Horizon Conference regular-season championship but lost in the conference tournament’s quarterfinals.
Stephen F. Austin (Southland), 12-3/16-5, #168/#148: The NCAA banned the Lumberjacks from postseason play because of poor academic performance.
Isaiah! (photo, Covington News)
Where do things stand? Loyola (Chicago), UNCG, Winthrop, UCSB, Grand Canyon, Colgate, St. Bona, and Abilene Christian are in the tournament, and all seven teams bear watching in the First Round.
Those teams have big-time players, too, and UNCG’s Isaiah Miller is an example. Miller had a double-double v. Mercer (25 points/12 rebounds) and added six assists. He’s averaging 20 ppg on the season, and he is shooting nearly 50% from the field.
What about my other picks? Juggernaut Belmont was the biggest disappointment, losing convincingly by 15 to Morehead State (23-7) in the Ohio Valley finals. I watched that game and was uber-impressed with MSU’s Johni Broome, who had a double-double (27 points/12 rebounds) against the Bruins.
Keep an eye on the Eagles (I’ve added MSU to my watchlist). But it appears that few eyes will be on the Bruins. Even though Belmont won the OVC regular-season championship–and ended the year with a 26-4 record–it’s unlikely (with a #89 NET) that the Bruins will get a bid. All it took was losing one game–a big game–to blunt their chances. Mid-majors walk a tightrope.
That may not be the case for the 25-4 Drake Bulldogs. The Missouri Valley Conference is a high-ranking mid-major, and there’s no shame in losing to Loyola in the MVC Championship game.
With a relatively high NET Ranking (#43), Drake could get an at-large bid. We’ll see what happens on Selection Sunday.
The dud in my picks was Wright State. The Raiders had the best record in the Horizon League during the regular season but laid an egg in the conference tournament. Wright State lost to a sub.500 team (Wisconsin-Milwaukee) after being up 18 points at the half. Now at 18-6 overall, WSU is out of The Dance.
And here is a thumbs-down for Stephen F. Austin–bounced from postseason play for not measuring up academically. The NCAA also penalized the Lumberjacks in football and baseball. BOO!
I’ll be back after the smoke clears from Selection Sunday to give you my take on which teams have the best chance of springing coveted First Round upsets.
