Each year I wager a guess at which mid-majors might surprise during the opening weekend of March Madness. Here are teams to watch this year.
It happens, people, and just about every year, too. David shows up at ‘The Big Dance.’
It happened on March 12, 1987. Lou Henson’s Illinois team was loaded. Headliners Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson, Kenny Norman, and Stephen Bardo went 22-8 during the regular season, 13-5 in the rugged Big Ten. Austin Peay, the Illini’s opponent that day, had struggled during the regular season before embarking on a run in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. The Governors got into the big tournament by winning the league championship…barely. APU won three games by a total of nine points.
UI vs. Peay: this #3-#14 match-up wouldn’t be much of a game. Illinois would prevail. It didn’t.
APU’s Darryl Bedford stepped up large that day, and an understated forward sealed the deal. Tony Raye, a 56% free thrower who had averaged but 5.2 points a game during the season, sank two free throws with a couple of seconds left. Norman missed a jumper at the horn, and the Governors prevailed, 68-67.
An isolated story? Not a chance! Upsets happen ALL the time. Remember (with banished foes identified in parens) the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (Virginia, the only #16-#1 upset in NCAA history), Florida Gulf Coast (Georgetown), and Mercer (Duke)? Those upsets are just the tip of an iceberg. And remember how underdog Loyola made its spectacular run to the Final Four?
Who might the Loyola be this year? (Hint: It might just be … drum roll, please … Loyola!)
I’ve looked at season performances and, based on my analysis–with a pinch of guesswork and gobs of hope thrown in–here is a Baker’s Dozen of teams I think bear watching. In alphabetical order–and with conference affiliations and current records (as of Feb 14)–they are:
Abilene Christian (Southland), 18-3
Belmont (Ohio Valley), 22-1
Colgate (Patriot), 9-1
Drake (Missouri Valley), 20-2
Grand Canyon (WAC), 12-3
Loyola (Missouri Valley), 18-4
St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10), 10-3
Stephen F. Austin (Southland), 12-3
UNC Greensboro (Southern), 15-6
UC Santa Barbara (Big West), 14-3
Virginia Commonwealth (Atlantic 10), 15-4
Winthrop (Big South), 18-1
Wright State (Horizon), 17-4
I picked these teams before looking at the NCAA NET rankings. The computer, and not people, do the work in those rankings, and that’s why I take the NET seriously. As of February 14, here’s where they rank.
Top 10: #10 Loyola
Top 20: #11 Colgate
#20-40: #31 VCU, #35 Drake
#41-60: #41 St. Bonaventure, #49 UCSB, #59 Wright St.
#61-80: #63 Belmont, #67 Winthrop, #74 Abilene Christian
>#80: # 92 UNCG, #114 Grand Canyon, #168 SFA.
I’m high on Drake and Loyola, and the two teams split games last weekend. Drake is plain good, and Loyola has something the Bulldogs do not–tournament experience, which is critical.
Having been there before gives mid-majors a leg-up–knowing how to prepare and handle the pressure.
I like Colgate, too. But the issue with the Red Raiders is whether they can step up during tournament time and pull off ‘The Big One.’ So my gut pushes me more toward four other tournament-tests teams–Wright State, the Belmont Bruins, Stephen F. Austin, and Winthrop. And there’s another team I think you should watch–a team from out West that few people know about–Grand Canyon University.
CGU is a relative newcomer to D-1 and a recent addition to the Western Athletic Conference. Brought to prominence by former NBA star Dan Majerle, the Antelopes need to be taken seriously. There’s a proviso, though. Grand Canyon plays in a weak league with wanna-be schools (California Baptist, Dixie State, for example), and perennial power New Mexico State is only 5-5 this year. That means CGU hasn’t been tested…at least not yet.
While I’m out West, let me also make a pitch for UCSB and the Big West. Only late-night East Coast/Midwest TV viewers get to see the Big West, but those who watch know there’s more to that part of the country than the PAC-12 (yawn) and the WCC with monster Gonzaga and contender St. Mary’s.
I’ll be back with my post-conference tournament edition of teams to watch. The timing makes sense because the only way mid-majors get into The Big Dance is by winning their conference tournaments. Upsets abound there, too. Right, Austin Peay?
