KC has an answer for every Tampa Bay strength.
Let’s start with the pass rush. Tampa Bay has a fearsome one. During the regular campaign, the Buccaneers notched 48 sacks, tied with Arizona for the fourth-most in the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City won’t have stalwart left tackle Eric Fisher for the Super Bowl (Achilles). That loss could open the door for the Bucs’ rush. But will it?
Mahomes has a speedy release (photo, NFL.com)
Four factors may offset TB’s presumed advantage. First, Fisher has never been considered one of the league’s elite left tackles. Second, Patrick Mahomes has fared better against blitzes than any other quarterback in the league. Third, KC has young, fast receivers who rack up YACs after short throws (ask Buffalo). Finally, Mahomes gets the ball out of his hands quickly.
Then, there’s this: it’s what KC’s defense can do to Tom Brady. Keep in mind what happened in Super Bowl 42, when New York Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo engineered relentless pressure against … tada … Tom Brady and (his then) New England Patriots.
And who’s KC’s DC these days? Tada … none other than the very same Spags.
So, you see, the pass rush factor can go either way. But when you factor things into the equation, I bet that it favors the defending champs.
That’s why I believe Tampa Bay’s best hope is to create turnovers and score off them. That’s something they can do because they’ve excelled at it. The Bucs got 101 points-off-turnovers during the regular season (third-most in the league behind Baltimore [106] and Pittsburgh [105]) and 41 POTs during the postseason. That’s only seven off the 2010 Green Bay team’s league record–the team that won Super Bowl 45.
The problem with replicating POTs against KC is that the Chiefs had only 16 giveaways in the regular season, tied for fourth-fewest in the NFL. In the postseason, KC has given up the ball just once. So, again, the comparison favors the Chiefs.
A third factor–home field advantage–won’t favor Tampa Bay as much as it might … had this game been played during a COVID-free regular season. In the Super Bowl, the league and not the host team control ticket distribution. That means you won’t see a stadium full of screaming Bucs’ season ticket holders. Besides, you won’t see a full stadium, either, thanks to COVID-19.
Courtesy Chiefs.com
Finally, the Chiefs are trying for back-to-back titles, which only eight teams have done, and just one team has pulled off in the last 20 years– the Brady-led Patriots that won Super Bowls 38 and 39 over Carolina and Philadelphia, respectively. Repeating is a tough task, and it takes young, fast, complete, and special squads to do that. I think Kansas City is that team.
And with the NFL setting records for points and touchdowns in 2020, the Chiefs – the “it” team of the moment – has more firepower on that side of the ball to counter whatever Tampa Bay does.
Yes, Brady has good receivers, too, and that combo will test the Kansas City defense. So we may see a high-scoring Super Bowl, perhaps the highest-scoring game ever.
And while I do think that a lot of points will be scored, I also think this…. When the smoke clears by the Bay on Sunday night, the Chiefs will be cheering.
Kansas City 40, Tampa Bay 30
