These teams have met four previous times in the playoffs, with the visiting team winning each time. What about this time? The Ravens are fundamentally-sound enough to play within themselves and execute a solid game plan. With more momentum and greater consistency, I pick the Ravens to win in Tennessee.
WHAT: AFC Wild Card Weekend Playoff at Tennessee Titans
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, January 10
WHERE: Nissan Stadium, Nashville (69,143)
RECORDS: Ravens, 11-5, second place, AFC North Division, fifth playoff seed, Titans, 11-5, AFC South Division champion, fourth playoff seed
LIFETIME SERIES (postseason): Tied, 2-2. In an extraordinary rivalry, each of these teams has won two playoff games on the opposition’s field, with the Ravens taking a 2000 Divisional (second) round game and a 2008 Divisional matchup in Nashville, and the Titans winning a 2003 Wild Card Weekend game and 2019 Divisional contest in Baltimore. The four games’ average margin is nine points, with the Titans holding a slight point advantage, 68-66. The Titans hold an 11-10 regular-season edge by virtue of an overtime win at Baltimore earlier this season.
TV: ESPN
LOCAL RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9
NATIONAL RADIO: Westwood1Sports.com
REFEREE: Jerome Boger
About the Titans
–If the winner of Sunday’s game is the lowest-seeded survivor of Wild Card Weekend, it will travel to top-seeded Kansas City next weekend to play on a date and time to be determined. If the winner of Sunday’s game is not the lowest-seeded survivor of Wild Card Weekend, it will travel to face a winning team on the other side of the AFC playoff bracket, with the date and time to be determined.
—The Tennessee Titans were born in 1960 as the Houston Oilers, one of the eight original members of the upstart American Football League (AFL). The team was owned by “Bud” Adams until his death and is now run by his daughter, Amy Adams Smith. Adams was one of the so-called “Foolish Club,” a group of owners whose venture into the startup league was seen as a foolhardy move. The Oilers were absorbed into the newly-formed AFC in 1970 as part of the AFL-NFL merger and placed in the AFC Central.
–The Oilers stayed in Houston until the end of the 1996 season, after which they embarked on a rather long and winding road. In 1997, they settled in Memphis as the Tennessee Oilers and played in the Liberty Bowl; the following year, they hosted home games at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. The team’s new stadium was finally ready in 1999 when they officially changed their name to the Titans.
–The Oilers/Titans franchise has now competed for 61 seasons, in which they have accumulated a total of 24 playoff berths, including ten division titles and 14 wild-card berths. The Oilers won the first two AFL championships in 1960 and 1961, but have appeared in just one Super Bowl as a franchise, that as the Titans in 1999, losing Super Bowl 34 at Atlanta’s since-demolished Georgia Dome to the then-St. Louis Rams. The franchise is 17-21 in its postseason history, tied with the Los Angeles Rams for the ninth-best lifetime playoff record among this year’s 14 playoff teams (Baltimore is second-best at 15-10, leading the AFC and trailing only Green Bay).
–All told, the Oilers/Titans are 3-6 in AFL and AFC Championship Games. After the merger, the AFC Central Division played until 2002, when it was realigned into the current AFC South. The Titans have made the playoffs in three of the last four years after not having appeared in the postseason since 2008, the most recent season in which it won a division title.
–When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they split six games with the Oilers, posting a 2-2 mark in games played at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium. The Oilers were the opponent for what turned out to be the Colts’ final game there, a 20-10 Colts win in the 1983 season finale. The Oilers at one point lost 13 consecutive regular-season games in the early 70s, a streak they broke in Baltimore in 1973, but the Colts got a measure of revenge three years later by blowing out the visiting Oilers in a “Monday Night Football” game at Memorial Stadium.
–The Ravens actually got to play the old Oilers twice before they left Texas and morphed into the Titans. At first, the division rivalry wasn’t that intense; a Ravens blowout win at the Liberty Bowl in 1997 drew just over 17,000 fans, still the smallest non-COVID crowd to see any regular-season game involving the Ravens. But once the Titans took hold in Nashville, the sparks flew, as the Ravens were the first visitors to win in Nashville in both regular- and postseason play, knocking the higher-seeded Titans out of the postseason twice on their home field (2000, 2008). The Titans returned the favor in Baltimore in a 2003 wild-card game and last year in the Divisional (second round).
–Like most modern stadiums, Nissan Stadium (located on the east bank of the Cumberland River) has had a variety of names due to corporate activity, having been dubbed Adelphia Coliseum, The Coliseum, and LP Field since it opened in 1999. Nissan acquired the naming rights in 2016. The natural-grass surface comprises Tifsport Bermuda Sod, which requires re-sodding in the middle of the field each November. The stadium has 177 executive suites, and its capacity gradually increased until it reached its present level in 2006. Construction began in May 1997, and the stadium was built at the cost of $290 million. One of the primary architects was HOK Sport, the firm behind Baltimore’s Oriole Park at Camden Yards and many other facilities. Besides the Titans, the stadium hosts numerous concerts, Tennessee State football games, and Nashville SC of Major League Soccer.
–Despite a leaky defense, the Titans streaked out to a 5-0 start this season and finished 11-5 in winning the AFC South Division for the first time in 12 years. But Tennessee allowed fewer than 24 points only four times in 16 games. Following a 1-3 midseason slump, the Titans’ COVID-altered schedule dictated that they play five of their final seven games on the road. The team responded, winning five of the seven games and wrapping up the division by barely winning a 41-38 slugfest at Houston.
–Tennessee fielded a well-balanced offense this year, running the ball 521 times and attempting to pass it on 510 occasions (including a mere 25 sacks allowed), for a plus-11 run-pass ratio. The team won many high-scoring close games, as it outscored its opponents by 19 points in the first quarter this season and just 16 in the fourth. But the Titans did pull out a pair of overtime wins, one at home with Houston and the other at Baltimore after rallying from 11 points down. Over the regular season’s final seven games, Tennessee averaged 34.6 points per game (the Ravens have averaged 37.2 in their last five).
–It’s the defense that has let Tennessee down; the team is 0-4 this year when it trails by 14 or more points. That said, the Titans rallied to beat Baltimore earlier this year, winning in overtime. However, the unit recorded only 19 sacks, the second-fewest by a playoff team since the 1970 merger, and the Titans are the only team since 1990 to allow opponents to convert more than half of their third-down plays. In overall defensive efficiency since 2006, this year’s Titans are 183rd out of 184 teams in that category, bottomed only by the 2013 Chargers.
—The Titans finished with the NFL’s best turnover ratio at plus-11. That happened due mostly to the fact that the offense took good care of the football, throwing just seven interceptions and losing only five fumbles. The Titans’ total of 12 giveaways was the lowest in the AFC and second-lowest in the league (Green Bay, 11). Tennessee also picked off 15 passes and fell on eight opponents’ fumbles, but those figures don’t rank near the top of the league table. However, the interceptions came from nine different Titans, while six different players recorded fumble recoveries.
—The Titans committed 86 accepted penalties in the 2020 regular season, around the middle of the NFL’s 32-team pack. It is a total of 18 fewer than Baltimore’s. Tennessee committed 16 false starts and 11 holds, a relatively low number of the most common penalties in the game, but it was also flagged for ten defensive pass interference penalties. The Titans only had one offensive pass interference call and only one illegal-contact foul on defense. Individually, three Titans were flagged at least six times, with cornerback Desmond King getting three pass-interference calls among his seven flags, and guard Nate Davis committing three false starts and three holds.
—As of the end of the regular season, Tennessee ranked tied for second in total offense (second rushing, 23rd passing, fourth scoring at 30.7 points per game) and was one of only five teams to average more than 30 points per game. Ironically, they achieved this by averaging 28:28 of possession time per game, the sixth-lowest figure in the league. Tennessee had the NFL’s fifth-best third-down conversion percentage and scored red-zone touchdowns 75 percent of the time (second-best). In goal-to-go situations, the Titans scored touchdowns a league-best 94 percent of the time. In six of its last seven games, Tennessee has gained 400 or more total yards of offense.
–Defensively, Tennessee ranked 28th overall (19th vs. rush, 29th vs. pass, 24th scoring, allowing 27.4 points per game). The Titans’ third-down defense was the NFL’s worst, allowing conversions nearly 52 percent of the time, while the red-zone defense yielded touchdowns at a rate that was the NFL’s third-worst. Tennessee also managed to accumulate just 19 sacks on defense, third-fewest in the NFL.
—Third-year head coach Mike Vrabel is the 20th head coach in the franchise’s history and guided the team to a pair of 9-7 records before this year’s division-winning breakthrough season (11-5). Including playoff games, Vrabel is 31-20 as the Titans’ head coach. He came to the team after serving as the Houston Texans’ defensive coordinator. As an NFL linebacker, he was a 1997 third-round draft pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers, won three Super Bowls and a Pro Bowl berth in New England, and played in Kansas City. At Ohio State University, he was a two-time All-Conference and All-America pick as a defensive lineman.
–Former Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is in his first full season as Tennessee’s starter. He replaced Marcus Mariota last year. This season, he has completed 65.5 percent of his passes with a career-high 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and 24 sacks for a 106.5 rating. Tannehill is one of only five quarterbacks that have posted a 105 rating or better in each of the last two seasons. He also has seven rushing touchdowns, also a career-high. This year, Tannehill has thrown only two interceptions in eight home games and played to a 118.5 rating. In five career regular-season games against Baltimore, Tannehill has completed 63.8 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, four interceptions, 17 sacks, and a passer rating of 85.5. Tannehill’s teams lost three of those five games, but when the Titans upset the Ravens in the playoffs last year, he played to a 109.5 rating, completing seven of 14 passes as he smartly relied on his running game. In 2013 as a Miami Dolphin, Tannehill threw for 307 yards against Baltimore.
–The Titans’ ground attack is paced by one of its own, 2015 winner Derrick Henry, who notched only the eighth 2000-yard season in NFL history (2027 yards, fifth-most all-time). He repeated as the league’s rushing champion, which had not been done since LaDainian Tomlinson achieved the feat in 2006-07. Henry has 16 runs this year of 20 or more yards, the most in the NFL, but the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards also rank highly in that category with ten, eight, and eight, respectively. This year, Henry averaged 5.4 yards-per-carry and scored a league-best 17 of the Titans’ gaudy total of 26 rushing scores, including a 94-yard run. Henry is the first player in NFL history to have five career 200-yard regular-season games and two touchdowns in each game. Henry was the NFL’s rushing champion in 2019 with 1540 yards, a 5.1 per-carry average, and 16 touchdowns. Henry produced all that despite missing one game. Henry also averaged 102 yards per game last year and should only be nearing his peak at age 26. Henry has a wicked stiff-arm move, to which ex-Baltimore safety Earl Thomas, Buffalo’s Josh Norman, and even 315-pound Indianapolis nose tackle Grover Stewart can attest. In last year’s Divisional playoff upset of Baltimore, Henry had 30 carries for 195 yards, setting a record as the best single-game opponent rushing performance Baltimore has ever allowed, breaking Terrell Davis’ 194-yard effort over the Ravens in 1996. Earlier this season, Henry ran for a 29-yard overtime touchdown to cap a furious second-half rally in a Titans’ win at Baltimore. In three regular-season games against the Ravens, Henry has run for 180 yards on 43 carries and two scores; he ran for 133 yards in the November overtime win at Baltimore, with 96 of those yards coming in the fourth quarter and overtime.
—The Titans have built a formidable receiving corps through the draft. Second-year receiver AJ Brown was taken in the second round (51st overall) from Mississippi. Still, the athletic, 5-foot-11 pass-catcher was also taken in the 2016 baseball draft by the San Diego Padres. Along with Henry, Brown was the only other Titan named to the AFC Pro Bowl squad. This year, Brown led the team with 70 receptions and 11 touchdowns (both career bests) for over a 15-yard average, including a 73-yard touchdown. Corey Davis, taken with the fifth overall pick in 2017 from Western Michigan, has 65 catches, second on the team, for a 15.1-yard average and five scores, one that traveled 75 yards. He scored at Baltimore in last year’s Divisional playoff game and had five grabs for 113 yards in the November win over the Ravens. The other pass-catching targets did include sixth-year receiver Adam Humphries, who is in his second season with the Titans, but he is on injured reserve. Tight end Jonnu Smith, a third-round pick in 2017 (100th overall), leads that unit with 41 catches, eight touchdowns, and an 11-yard average; he scored against the Ravens in the playoffs last year. Backup Anthony Firkser has 39 receptions and one score, while Greg Swaim is mostly a blocking tight end. Out of the backfield, Henry has contributed 19 receptions, and return specialist Kalif Raymond, who caught a 45-yard touchdown at Baltimore in last year’s Divisional playoff game, has nine catches.
—The Titans’ offensive line is similar to Baltimore’s in that it is an excellent run-blocking unit. This year, it has improved to protect the passer, allowing only 25 sacks through 16 games after yielding 56 last year. That’s an outstanding showing, considering veteran left tackle Taylor Lewan (torn ACL) has been out for the year, and right tackle Jack Conklin had his fifth-year option declined and signed with Cleveland. Former Denver Bronco left-sider Ty Sambrailo was the first to fill in for Lewan, but he is on injured reserve, and David Quessenberry has that job now; nine-year NFL veteran Dennis Kelly takes over on the right. Rodger Saffold, the left guard, has spent most of his career with the Rams, and right guard Nate Davis is a second-year third-round pick from Charlotte (82nd overall). At center, Ben Jones is another valuable, experienced piece of the line; he is in his ninth NFL year from Georgia.
—Anchoring the nose in the Titans’ 3-4 defensive scheme is seventh-year Penn State product and fourth-round pick DaQuan Jones, a big and versatile player. Jones has 49 tackles and two sacks, along with four tackles for loss and six quarterback hits. He is flanked on one side by Jeffery Simmons, a second-year player from Morehead State taken with the 19th overall pick. Simmons is the team’s most disruptive force, with 49 tackles, three sacks, three tackles for loss, five pass breakups, 13 quarterback hits, and three fumble recoveries. Nine-year Penn State alum Jack Crawford also sees lots of playing time; he is on his fourth NFL team, having played previously with Oakland, Dallas, and Atlanta. He has two sacks and nine quarterback hits.
–The Titans’ linebacker corps suffered a blow when leading tackler Jayon Brown fractured an elbow in the overtime win at Baltimore. The team’s younger players have had to step forward, most notably David Long and Wyatt Ray. The latter is a first-year linebacker out of Boston College who started last week against Houston in a pinch and recorded a sack. But Ray has a capable veteran partner on the opposite side in Harold Landry, who leads the team with 5.5 sacks, ten tackles for loss, 16 quarterback hits, and five pass breakups. The inside pair is made up of Long (50 tackles), a second-year player from West Virginia, and veteran Rashaan Evans, whose 96 tackles are third-most on the team. Evans also has four quarterback hits and five pass breakups.
— The Titans secondary has come together in the deep middle of the field around a pair of durable veteran safeties in Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard. Vaccaro is a former New Orleans first-round pick in his third year in Tennessee and eighth in the league who had seven tackles and intercepted Lamar Jackson in last year’s Divisional playoff game. He has 83 tackles, fourth-most on the team, along with six tackles for loss and five pass breakups. Byard picked off two passes against Baltimore in a regular-season meeting three years ago (he has six breakups and four-lifetime INTs against the Ravens) and tied for the NFL lead that year with eight pickoffs; his 111 total tackles lead the squad, and he also has seven breakups. Second-year man Amani Hooker (Iowa), a versatile safety-linebacker sub-package player, is the team’s co-leader with four interceptions. At a corner, former Los Angeles Chargers starter and fourth-year veteran Desmond King, who played against the Ravens in the 2018 Divisional playoff round, was acquired at the trade deadline to pair with Super Bowl 49 hero Malcolm Butler, giving the Titans a formidable cover pair. Butler is second on the team with 100 tackles but co-leads the squad with four interceptions; he also has a team-high 14 pass breakups and 37 tackles and eight breakups in 11 career postseason games. King has 30 tackles; he took over the spot vacated when Johnathan Joseph, who had five career pickoffs against Baltimore, was traded to Arizona. As a Los Angeles Charger two years ago, King ran back a kickoff 72 yards in the playoff game at Baltimore and also recorded a sack. In the slot is Adoree Jackson, a former special teamer and return specialist who was taken from Southern California with the 18th overall pick in the 2017 draft.
–The Titans have yet another new kicker, Miami (Ohio) product Sam Sloman, who was originally drafted in the seventh round (248th overall) by the Los Angeles Rams. After being waived by the Rams, he came to the Titans in November and was signed to the practice squad. He was activated for the team’s regular-season finale against Houston last week and knocked through a game-winning field goal that bounced off the right goalpost and caromed through for the 41-38 win. Sloman had to be called upon when veteran kicker Stephen Gostkowski (18-for-26 on field goals) was placed on the reserve/COVID list. Gostkowski has never missed a kick against Baltimore. At one point in his 15-year career, Gostkowski kicked an NFL-record 479 straight regular-season extra points, breaking a record held by Baltimore’s Matt Stover.
–Punter Brett Kern (45.8 gross, 41.5 net, 22 coffin-corner kicks in 37 punts), a multiple Pro Bowl pick who is one of the league’s best punters and the team’s holder, has had an up-and-down season, to say the least. He went on temporary injured reserve with a wrist injury and was supplanted by Trevor Daniel, a castoff on his third NFL team (Houston, Denver). Kern returned but then went on the reserve/COVID list, returning in time for the regular-season finale. The team has also deployed Ryan Allen, who has been with New England and Atlanta during his seven previous seasons in the league, but Kern is expected to punt against the Ravens.
–Backup receiver Kalif Raymond, in his fourth NFL season from Holy Cross, is the primary kick and punt return specialist. Raymond is quite adventurous, calling for 11 fair catches in 34 punts aimed in his direction, but he is averaging only nine yards per punt return and no runback longer than 40 yards. On kickoffs, he is averaging only 18.3 yards per attempt, with no return longer than 30 yards, but third-year Texas Tech product Cameron Batson now handles those duties and is averaging 21 yards per attempt. Receiver AJ Brown also has a 42-yard onside-kick return score. The Titans’ coverage teams have done a rather average job covering punts (8.6-yard average allowed) and also on kickoffs (22.2).
Prediction
These teams have met four previous times in the playoffs, with the visiting team winning each time. What about this time?
The Ravens’ run game is hitting on all cylinders these days (soft opposition notwithstanding). Baltimore posted a 404-yard effort at Cincinnati last week, the NFL’s fourth-best single-game output in the last 70 years. Perhaps more importantly, the Ravens are fundamentally-sound enough to play within themselves, execute a solid game plan, get an early lead, and cruise to a win.
That said, the Titans have 2000-yard rusher Derrick Henry its side. But the Ravens have more momentum and are more consistent than Tennessee.
Baltimore 34, Tennessee 23
