It’s all on the line for arguably the two hottest teams in the playoffs. Vegas favors the Bills (-3). This pundit says Ravens.
WHAT: American Football Conference Divisional Round at Buffalo Bills
WHEN: 8:15 p.m. (ET); Saturday, January 16
WHERE: Bills Stadium; Orchard Park, New York (71,608)
RECORDS: Ravens, 12-5, second place, AFC North Division, fifth playoff seed
Bills, 14-3, AFC East Division champions, second playoff seed
LIFETIME SERIES (postseason): These teams have never met in postseason play. In regular-season games, the Ravens have won six of the nine meetings, including the last three straight and four of the last five. In the most recent meeting (December 2019), the Ravens won in Buffalo, 24-17, for their first road win over the Bills in three tries. The Ravens and Bills have split four preseason games.
REFEREE: Carl Cheffers
About the Bills
–As the second seed, Buffalo can host the AFC Championship Game on January 24 if it beats Baltimore and Kansas City losses to Cleveland on Sunday. But if the Ravens win, it would travel to Kansas City if the Chiefs win, and it will host the AFC title game y with an upset by the sixth-seeded Browns. The AFC title game will be played at 6:40 p.m. on January 24 and televised on CBS.
–The Bills were born in 1960 as one of the original members of the American Football League. Owner Ralph Wilson was known as part of the “Foolish Club,” a group of original owners who were roundly criticized for what seemed like a foolhardy venture. When Wilson died in 2014 at age 95, Korean-born Kim Pegula and husband Terry, who owns the National Hockey League’s Buffalo Sabres, beat out two main groups to own the team – one headed by rock star Jon Bon Jovi, the other by businessman/reality television host/future U.S. President Donald Trump. Kim Pegula is one of two foreign-born owners in the NFL; Shahid Khan of Jacksonville is the other.
–In its history, Buffalo has accumulated 19 postseason appearances in 61 full seasons. Buffalo won three division titles (1964-66) and two league championships (’64, ’65) during its American Football League era. In the AFC East, the Bills have eight division championships – this year was the first since 1995 – and eight wild-card berths, the most recent in 2017 after an 18-year playoff absence.
–The franchise is 4-1 in the AFC Championship Game. But is best known for being the only team to appear in four straight Super Bowls (25 through 28) and losing all of them to (in order) the New York Giants, Washington, and Dallas twice.
–The Bills played in a substandard venue known as War Memorial Stadium from 1960-72, which was affectionately dubbed “The Rockpile,” where scenes from the classic baseball movie “The Natural” were filmed. In 1973, the team moved out of Buffalo into suburban Orchard Park, settling into Rich Stadium, named after the Rich foods company. That name stayed on the venue until 1998 when it was renamed for owner Ralph Wilson. In 2016, the stadium’s naming rights were sold to New Era, a company that manufactures baseball caps with team logos and other decorations. That deal ran out, and the more generic “Bills Stadium” was adopted in 2020. The stadium has never had real grass. It has used A-Turf Titan 50, which is a synthetic surface, since 2011.
–When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they were aligned alongside the Bills in the AFC East from the 1970 merger up until the Colts’ move after the 1983 season. In a series marked by long streaks of success by both teams, they ended up 13-13-1 against each other, with the Colts winning five straight in the early part of the series and Buffalo taking the final five meetings before the Colts moved.
–The Ravens-Bills series consists of only nine-lifetime meetings to date. Baltimore has faced Buffalo fewer times than any other AFC team. The home team had won the last seven meetings before the Ravens won in December of 2019, their first-ever win in Buffalo after two losses.
–The hot Bills beat the Ravens in 2007, kicking off a Ravens-record nine-game losing streak after starting the season 4-2. They beat Baltimore again in 2013 when Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw five interceptions. Two of them, including the game-clincher, were hauled in by linebacker Kiko Alonso, who, as a Dolphin a few years later, would lay a huge hit on Flacco during a Thursday-night game in Baltimore. The Ravens and Bills have played two Week One game against each other, both in Baltimore, with the Ravens winning both in 2016 and 2018.
–Buffalo and Baltimore had five common opponents during the regular season. They were Tennessee, Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City, and Indianapolis. The Ravens went 2-5 against those teams, while the Bills posted a 4-2 mark.
–The Bills finished the 2020 regular season at 13-3, powered by a season-opening four-game winning streak, a three-game run at midseason, and a season-closing six-game streak. Buffalo swept all six games against AFC East Division opponents. The 13 wins tie the club record set in 1990 and 1991. The Bills have also won 12 games in a season three times and 11 on three other occasions. Except for a three-game October stretch, the Bills scored 24 or more points in every game. Buffalo won five of six games decided by one score, but the team hasn’t played in a one-score game since losing at Arizona on the “Hail Murray” last-second touchdown pass on November 15.
–Even though most of the Bills’ games have been lopsided, it’s not as if the opposition isn’t getting an even chance. The Bills are averaging just under 32 minutes of possession time per game (31:45, third-best in the league) but have run only nine more total offensive plays than their opponents. The offense is well-balanced–411 running plays v. 623 pass plays (including 27 sacks allowed). The Bills have 60 total touchdowns, with 40 of them coming in the passing game, and the team has also scored four return touchdowns (one punt return, two-interception runbacks, and a fumble return).
–Buffalo gets off to hot starts in most of its games. It has outscored its 2020 opponents by 90-49 in the first quarter and 175-97 in the second.
–On the penalty front, this game could be littered with flags. Buffalo has been charged with 102 accepted penalties, the league’s fifth-most and only two fewer than Baltimore’s total. Buffalo has been penalized to the tune of 941 yards (fifth-most), while the Ravens’ 961 is third-most. The Bills have committed 21 false-start penalties, making them one of only seven teams to have 20 or more in that category. The team has 19 offensive holding violations, only six behind the leader in that category. Buffalo’s aggressive defense has resulted in nine defensive holding calls, 11 for pass interference, and six roughing-the-passer penalties, one fewer than the Ravens. Individually, five players have committed five or more penalties each, led by tackle Daryl Williams (five false starts) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (three for pass interference, one for illegal contact).
–Buffalo and Baltimore are two of three NFL teams that have a plus-4 turnover ratio. But unlike Tennessee, which built up a plus-11 figure by being careful on offense, the Bills are more aggressive on defense, causing 26 takeaways, the league’s third-most behind Pittsburgh (27) and Miami (29). The Bills’ 22 takeaways are the most among teams ranked in the top ten of the turnover ratio table. The team’s 15 interceptions have come from ten different players, led by Tre’Davious White’s three pickoffs. Its 11 fumble recoveries have come from eight players, led by White, cornerback Josh Norman and veteran linebacker Jerry Hughes (two each).
—During the 2020 regular season, Buffalo tied for second in total offense (20th rushing, third passing, second scoring at 31.3 points per game). Buffalo is one of only five NFL teams to average more than 30 points per game (Green Bay, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee). The Bills’ third-down offense is top-ranked in the league, converting at a nearly 50-percent pace, and the team has converted 80 percent of its fourth-down plays, tied for the league-best.
–Defensively, the Bills are ranked 14th overall (17th vs. rush, 13th vs. pass, 16th scoring, allowing 23.4 points per game). The Buffalo third-down defense ranks a respectable 13th, but its red-zone defense is the league’s fifth-worst.
–-Sean McDermott, 46, a William & Mary graduate, is the 22nd interim or head coach in Bills franchise history. With a career record of 39-28 (including postseason), he is now in his fourth season. In 2017, he guided Buffalo to six home wins–the first time since 1999, which had been the last time the team made the playoffs before McDermott took over in 2017. He is the third head coach to take Buffalo to the postseason in his first year with the team following Joe Collier (1968) and Wade Phillips (1998). McDermott came to the Bills after a six-year run as the Carolina Panthers’ defensive coordinator.
—Third-year quarterback Josh Allen was a 2018 first-round pick (seventh overall) selected 25 spots ahead of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. He was second-team All-Mountain West and was named Most Valuable Player of the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. His first two years were rather average. But in 2020 he made a quantum leap into the ranks of one of the game’s best passers. Allen is averaging eight yards per attempt and has completed 69.2 percent of his passes with 37 touchdowns (a franchise record), ten interceptions, and a 107.2 passer rating. His franchise-record 4544 passing yards this year ranked third in the AFC and fifth in the league. Last week, in a Wild Card Weekend win over Indianapolis, Allen became the first player in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes for 300 or more yards and rush for at least 50 yards in a postseason game. In two career games against Baltimore (both losses), Allen has completed 42.5 percent of his throws with one touchdown, nine sacks, and a 60.7 passer rating. Baltimore’s nine sacks are tied with New England and the New York Jets for Allen’s most sacks by any opponent. He is backed up by former Southern California standout Matt Barkley, now in his eighth NFL season, and rookie Matt Fromm (Georgia). Allen has also carried the ball 102 times and scored a team-high eight touchdowns on the ground (tied for third-most among quarterbacks).
–Second-year running back Devin Singletary is a compact, 5-foot-7, 203 pounder, who has established himself as the team’s starter. He is leading the team with 687 yards rushing, a 4.4-yard average, and two touchdowns, including a 51-yard score. Promising rookie Zach Moss (Utah) gained 481 yards this year and scored four touchdowns, but he is out for the season (ankle). To reinforce this unit, Buffalo signed former New York Giant and Atlanta Falcon starter Devonta Freeman, 28, who played in five postseason games, including Super Bowl 51, for the Falcons. Former Alabama star and Jacksonville back TJ Yeldon is also on the roster.
–Allen leads a group of five Bills players named to this year’s AFC Pro Bowl squad. The others are wideout Stefon Diggs, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, cornerback Tre’Davious White and return specialist Andre Roberts.
—Buffalo’s pass-catching corps includes outside receivers Stefon Diggs, and former Ravens and Cardinals wideout John Brown. In his first year with the Bills since leaving Minnesota, Diggs – limited in practice due to an oblique injury – led the NFL with 127 catches and 1535 yards, posting a 12.1-yard average and eight of the team’s 40 passing touchdowns. Former Dallas Cowboys slot receiver Cole Beasley, nursing a slight knee problem, is second on the team with 82 receptions, an 11.8-yard average, and four scores. He has two career touchdowns against the Ravens. Meanwhile, Brown has 33 catches and three touchdowns. Singletary has contributed 38 catches, and deep threat Gabriel Davis, a rookie from Central Florida, has a 17-yard average and seven scores, tied for second-most among rookies. Backup Isaiah McKenzie has five touchdowns, and tight ends Tyler Kroft and Dawson Knox have three each.
—The Bills’ offensive line was reconfigured this year. It paces an average ground game (16 rushing touchdowns) and has allowed 27 quarterback sacks. Sixth-year center Mitch Morse is a classic case of someone drafted to help with a team’s offensive line but who priced himself out of his team’s cap capability. After four years in Kansas City, he landed in Buffalo as an unrestricted free agent. Dion Dawkins and veteran Daryl Williams are the tackles; Williams is a right tackle from Oklahoma who has played with standouts such as Baker Mayfield and Mark Andrews in recent seasons with the Sooners. Jon Feliciano is the right guard, and Ike Boettger is a 6-foot-6, 320-pound specimen from Iowa. Six-year man Ty Nsekhe is the swing tackle and ex-New York Jets starter Brian Winters is the swing guard.
–Buffalo’s defensive line rotation is very deep, experienced, and talented. Defensive end Jerry Hughes is in his 11th season from TCU and has 4.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits. On the other end is Mario Addison, the co-team leader with five sacks, seven tackles for loss, and eight quarterback hits. Addison has played for Carolina, Indianapolis, Washington, and Chicago in his decade-long career. On the inside are 2019 first-round pick Ed Oliver (Houston), who has three sacks, six tackles for loss, six quarterback hits, and Vernon Butler, in his fifth year from Louisiana Tech. Oliver was limited by an ankle problem in the week’s first practice.
–The Bills also have a solid but reconfigured linebacking corps. It includes Matt Milano, who’s listed as a weak-sider this year after playing at strong in 2019, and middle man Tremaine Edmunds, a first-round draft pick from Virginia Tech now in his third season who is the team leader in total tackles with 119. Edmunds, slowed by a hamstring problem this week, also has contributed two sacks, four tackles for losses, three quarterback hits, and three pass breakups. Milano (35 solo stops) is in his fourth year from Boston College with 3.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits, three pass breakups, and four tackles for losses. Milano led the Bills with 11 tackles in last week’s playoff opener. Milano’s backup is AJ Klein, an eight-year veteran from Iowa State who has 73 tackles (fourth on the team), a co-team-high five sacks, nine quarterback hits, and four pass breakups.
–On its depth chart, Buffalo lists five defensive backs in its base package. The group includes nickel corner Taron Johnson, a third-year player from Weber State, who returned an interception 51 yards for a touchdown this year. The main outside corners are Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace, a respective fifth and sixth on the team in tackles. The pair have also combined for five of the team’s 15 interceptions and 19 pass breakups. White also has a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. The team’s leading tackler with 53 solo stops. Wallace had his first career forced fumble last week. Multi-team veteran Josh Norman is playing on a one-year contract and missed time this year due to COVID, but returned in Week 17 and returned an interception for a score against Miami. At safety, former cornerback Jordan Poyer is second on the team with 118 total tackles, including a team-best 85 solo tackles and two sacks, two interceptions, and a pair of forced fumbles. Veteran safety Micah Hyde has 70 tackles, fifth-most on the team, and five pass breakups; he also had a career-high three in the Wild Card win over the Colts. Backup safety Dean Marlowe, a fourth-year player from James Madison, also has a pair of interceptions.
–Return specialist Andre Roberts (The Citadel) is 33 years old and in his 11th year in the league. Buffalo is the sixth NFL team for which he has played, having made stops in Arizona, Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, and the New York Jets before landing in Buffalo as a street free agent. On punts, he is averaging 9.9 yards per return with no runback longer than 38 yards. He has a mere 12 fair catches in 41 attempts, but the team’s 11.4-yard average on punt returns is fourth-best in the league. On kick returns, the Bills average a league-best 27.6 yards per attempt, with Roberts leading the NFL individually with a 30-yard average. Teammate Isaiah McKenzie has just one punt return this year, but it went for an 84-yard touchdown.
–The Bills’ punt coverage unit allows 8.6 yards per return, which ranks that unit around the middle of the league’s 32-team pack. But on kickoffs, the Bills rank third-best in the league, allowing just 17.9 per runback, giving them a huge field-position advantage in most games. Sixteen different Bills have recorded special-teams tackles this year, led by Jordan Poyer and Daryl Johnson with six each. Backup corner Siran Neal has five.
—Kicker Tyler Bass is a rookie from Georgia Southern who had a fairly good season. He hit 28 of 34 field-goal attempts and missing just two extra points in 59 attempts (the Bills went for two after a touchdown only once all year). But three of Bass’ misses came between 30-39 yards and one more from between 40 and 49 yards. Bass is heavily relied upon. His 141 points led the team by one of the widest margins by any NFL kicker.
—Punter Corey Bojorquez, also the team’s holder on placekicks, is a third-year player from New Mexico. This year, Bojorquez is grossing an NFL-best 50.8 yards per punt and is netting 44.0. But he has just seven touchbacks and 18 coffin-corner kicks in 41 punts–a surprisingly low number over the course of a 16-game schedule.
Prediction
It took the Ravens three tries to win a game in Buffalo. That was in 2019 when a close December victory was part of a 12-game winning streak. But that was then, Today, Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen throws effectively to wideouts Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs, and to underrated tight end Dawson Knox. He also has a respectable run game to lean on.
That said, Jackson gives the Buffalo a look that it rarely sees, and the Ravens’ strong running game plays to a Bills’ weakness (perhaps its only weakness). At issue is whether the Ravens’ defense will be able to step up and control that strong Bills offense. Thinking that it will ….
Baltimore 24, Buffalo 16
