I closed the regular season by going 11-5, bringing my year-end mark to 158-97-1 (.620). With the postseason upon us, I wipe the slate clean and roll the odometer back to 0-0. Here’s how I see the weekend playing out.
(2) Buffalo 30, (7) Indianapolis 20 (Saturday afternoon, CBS): The Colts were my pick to win the AFC South, but even though they didn’t do that, they made Tennessee sweat all the way to the end. But now, Indy has to venture up to Buffalo, where if it isn’t snowing, it will be cold at the very least. The Colts prosper in their indoor environment, but I don’t think they have as complete a team as the Bills do. With three playoff berths in four years after a long drought, Buffalo has really done a great job raising its game level since its renaissance in 2017; At first, the defense powered the team. But, now, the offense has also come around. Buffalo is ready to take that next step to the Divisional (second) round as it progresses towards its long-awaited Super Bowl title. Meanwhile, Indy is making just its second playoff trip in the last six seasons. Buffalo.
(3) Seattle 27, (6) Los Angeles Rams 24 (Saturday afternoon, Fox): The NFC West provided some slam-bang action all season long, and this game should be no exception. Seattle has been a bit schizophrenic. At times, it was an all-offensive team, and sometimes the defense carried the load. But while Seattle won four straight to close the regular season, the Rams faded down the stretch. They should consider themselves fortunate to even be in the playoff field for the third time in four years. I don’t see any momentum or life from Los Angeles– certainly not enough to go to Seattle and get a playoff win. But because these teams know each other well, it should be an entertaining battle. The Rams led the NFL in scoring defense by allowing only 296 points, seven fewer than Baltimore. Seattle
(5) Tampa Bay 23, (4) Washington 10 (Saturday night, NBC): The nation’s capital gang had to win five of its last seven to make the postseason field, negotiating its way through the league’s worst division to do it. And while WFT does have a promising young defense, they’ll face a multi-faceted Buccaneer team that features playmakers on both sides of the ball. Besides, WFT had to struggle mightily to outlast a Philadelphia team with Nate Sudfeld under center. The last two teams that hosted a playoff game with losing records won those games, but I don’t see that happening this time–not with Tom Brady on the field. This could very well be the most boring and/or one-sided game of the entire weekend. Tampa Bay
(5) Baltimore 34, (4) Tennessee 23 (Sunday afternoon, ABC/ESPN): The most noteworthy statistic attached to this game is the fact that these two teams have met four previous times in the playoffs, with the visiting team winning every time. The Ravens’ run game is hitting on all cylinders these days (soft opposition notwithstanding) and posted a 404-yard effort at Cincinnati last week. The Titans’ defense is nothing to write home about either. While football is an emotional game that sometimes gets too emotional for its own good, the Ravens are fundamentally-sound enough to play within themselves, execute a solid game plan, get an early lead, and cruise to a win. I’m certainly not saying it will be easy to win a game like this–especially with 2000-yard rusher Derrick Henry on the other side–but the Ravens (with the league’s best point differential (plus-165) for a second straight year, thanks to 468 points scored, second-most in team history) have much more momentum, consistency, and motivation going for them. Tennessee won the AFC South Division for the first time in 12 years. Baltimore
(2) New Orleans 40, (7) Chicago 17 (Sunday afternoon, CBS/Nickelodeon): This game should have a separate broadcast on a children’s channel. Why? If one is to learn football, there’s no better teacher than Drew Brees (plus, his Super Bowl-winning moment 11 years ago with his young son was priceless). I think the Bears are perhaps the weakest team in the entire playoff field, and the fact that they made it to January is the NFL season’s biggest fluke. The Saints have had some of their best players in and out of the lineup due to a variety of injuries, but it’s a deep team that continued to win–even without Brees. This is why I picked the Saints to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and this kind of opposition should be a speed bump on the way to a Green Bay showdown and a trip to Tampa. New Orleans
(3) Pittsburgh 23, (6) Cleveland 20 (Sunday night, NBC): The Steelers shook off their late-season funk just in time. Then they rested their stars in Week 17 while still nearly knocking off the playoff neophytes from Cleveland. Naturally, all hands will be on deck for this Wild Card Weekend meeting, and I’ll take the team with playoff experience and the home field. If the Browns truly want to be taken seriously by most national observers, they must learn to win games like this and win them convincingly. Cleveland is a long, long way from that sort of status, but these two long-time archrivals should make both cities vibrate with excitement. Pittsburgh
