For Red Bull to contend with Mercedes, it needs a Bottas-type to fill the #2 seat.
Two seats remain open as we get closer to the end of what’s called Formula 1’s ‘Silly Season’ (the period in which drivers transfer and contract are negotiated). But one of those seats isn’t really open at all. It belongs to current world champion Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes, and (because it’s a contract extension) the matter will be resolved soon. The other seat–the truly open one–is at Red Bull.
Red Bull’s #1 driver, Max Verstappen, is confirmed for next year. At issue is who’ll occupy the #2 seat, which is now Alexander Albon’s.
The answer to ‘who drives’ is never answered easily, but Red Bull faces an exceptionally knotty situation–albeit a situation that other teams would love to have. Mercedes has had a stranglehold recently on both the Driver’s and Constructors’ championships). Who is the Silver Arrows’ closest rival? You guessed it. It’s Red Bull. That means who occupies the #2 seat is no minor matter. Red Bull needs a #2 driver that contributes the way Valtteri Bottas does at Mercedes.
Alexander Albon (photo, The Checkered Flag)
Red Bull’s philosophy has been to promote from within, and (and to do that) RB’s driver academy has produced talent the likes of Sebastian Vettel, who has won four F1 championships during his career. The problem is that Red Bull has a lot of talent these days, and with only four seats available–and many drivers who can occupy those seats–drivers are in a dicey situation, including Albon.
Albon, who had driven 12 races in 2019 for Toro Rosso (now Alpha Tauri), was called prematurely to Red Bull’s main team. Typically, a Red Bull driver spends at least one season on the junior team before going to ‘the bigs.” But in Albon’s case, the promotion was less a matter of merit and more about how Pierre Gasly struggled in Red Bull’s second seat. Gasly had a half-season to match Verstappen, and he didn’t come close.
But it’s also no secret that Red Bull has been unimpressed with Albon’s performance as #2. Albon has qualified 7th (on average) vs. Verstappen’s 3rd, and he has finished 8th (on average) compared to Verstappen’s 2nd. Verstappen finished the season with two wins, a pole position, and 11 podiums. Verstappen had five DNFs, climbed the podium twice, and finished the year more than 100 points behind his teammate (7th place overall).
These numbers may tell us more about Verstappen’s skill than Albon’s lack of it, but many observers feel that Albon is not quite ready to drive a coveted car. And that puts Red Bull in a pickle. Not since 2018 (when Daniel Ricciardo left in a contract dispute) has the team located a teammate who can take the fight to Mercedes. And Red Bull won’t challenge Mercedes until it does.
So Red Bull needs a strong teammate for Verstappen, especially now that Ferrari seems poised to rebound from its recent struggles. So who should occupy that second seat at Red Bull?
The most likely option is to keep Albon right where he is currently. Red Bull team principal Christian Horner has said that Albon would “spend a year on the bench” (out of F1) if he fails to retain his seat. But a year away from F1 probably wouldn’t do Albon any favor– especially with no guarantee of getting back. On the other hand, by extending Albon, Red Bull trades stability for the possibility of hampering both Verstappen’s title challenge and the team’s Constructors’ quest. To avoid those outcomes, Albon would have to up his game.
A second option is rookie Yuki Tsunoda, promoted into Alpha Tauri from F2 for the 2021 season. But the word is that Tsunoda will not be placed immediately into the senior team. Then, there’s Pierre Gasly. But the reality is that Gasly has probably squandered his chances at Red Bull–at least for the foreseeable future.
Sergio Perez (photo, F1i)
A fourth option is Sergio Perez. After being jettisoned at the end of 2020 by Racing Point in Vettel’s favor, the Mexican driver now is without an F1 seat for 2021. Perez was one of the stars of the 2020 season, recording a maiden win and finishing an impressive 4th in the drivers’ standings, occupying the 4th best car. Perez has been a midfield gunner for most of his career, picking up the scraps when a top driver falters, and he has never had the chance to challenge for wins consistently. Until now….
While Perez isn’t quite in the same echelon as Verstappen or Hamilton–at least not yet–he has been consistent. That means he could be an ideal supporting driver, potentially offering a regular influx of points. But while I believe Perez would be an improvement from Albon, there’s the issue that I discussed earlier, namely, that Red Bull’s mantra is promoting from within. That means Perez (if he becomes #2) might be a short-term, 1-year solution.
So it seems that Red Bull’s choices are two: focus on Albon’s development or sign Perez to a short-term contract, hoping that a young driver for the future will emerge from within.
The stakes are high, too. 2021 maybe Red Bull’s last chance at a title before the regulation changes go into effect. When the new regs apply in 2022, most observers predict that the earth will move under F1’s feet.
So, Red Bull, what are you going to do?
