Once considered a high-risk and overvalued QB–a Bills’ draft mistake as some saw him–Allen has evolved into one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks, a franchise quarterback, the likes of which Buffalo hasn’t seen since the days of Jim Kelly.
The Buffalo Bills are hot, and reason #1 is the Bills’ starting quarterback Josh Allen. The 6’5” Wyoming product has made huge strides since going pro. Nobody ever questioned his arm strength, but now Allen–with a 3-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio–is showing the league he’s accurate, too.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen continues to develop (photo, USAToday)
What’s more, Allen can run the ball. He’s averaging around five yards-per-carry and scoring a rushing TD per game.
What a difference for Allen! Over his first two seasons, he threw 30 TDs and turned over the ball a like number of times.
What accounts for the improvement? Allen has improved his throwing mechanics, leading more with his front foot and twisting his hips to create more twerk. That enables Allen to increase velocity and improve accuracy. What’s more, Allen has evolved from one of the NFL’s worst deep ball throwers to one of its best, ranking #1 in the number of passing plays over 20 yards.
There’s more, too. When defenses blitz, Allen has thrown 12 TDs and has had only one pass intercepted. Compare that to stats compiled by Tom Brady in 2010 (arguably his best season as a pro). That year while being blitzed, Brady threw 15 TDs with two interceptions. In 2014 while under the blitz, MVP Aaron Rodgers threw 13 TDs and one interception.
What do the stats tell us? It means that Allen–just like Brady and Rodgers–has the upper hand when defenses gamble.
Numbers also tell us that Allen performs exceptionally well in the Red Zone. He has scored 19 RZ TDs so far this season (14 passing, five rushing), while maintaining a 111.6 passer rating. How do those numbers compare to Brady and Rodgers during their best seasons? Allen has a higher RZ passer rating than either of them.
While some pundits might say that Josh Allen is ‘enjoying a holiday’ while defenses adjust to a player that has gone from not very good to really good, stats tell us that defenses haven’t been able to adjust to Allen’s competence. In the second half of this season, Allen has thrown six TDs without an interception, has completed 70.3% of his passes, and has a league-high 122.8 passer rating.
Allen is excelling in close games, too–an area that separates great from average quarterbacks. In games with a difference of 7 points in the 4th quarter, Allen has a 4-1 TD to INT ratio and has a 121.4 passer rating.
And while it’s clear that the Bills are not a one-man team, it’s also clear that winning v. losing in Buffalo is tied tightly to Allen’s performance. In wins, Allen has thrown 15 touchdowns with two interceptions and for an average of 314 yards. In Buffalo losses, Allen’s TD-INT ratio drops to 6-5, and his passing yardage drops by about 100 yards a game.
The bottom line? The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East, primed for a serious playoff run. A big reason is Josh Allen’s play. Once considered a high-risk and overvalued QB–a Bills’ draft mistake as some saw him–Allen has evolved into one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks, a franchise quarterback, the likes of which Buffalo hasn’t seen since the days of Jim Kelly.
Great analytical article. Did you call josh Allen and ask for a comment from him?
Great job!! An enjoyable read!