I’m coming off my best week of the year, an 11-5 performance, which brings my cumulative season record to 134-89-1 (.600). This week, games are scheduled on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. It’s an extended holiday football feast! So let’s get on with the picks.
Originally posted Dec 22.
New Orleans 33, Minnesota 26 (Friday afternoon): This won’t mark the first time the Vikings have played on Christmas. In 2005, on a Sunday night in Baltimore, the Ravens and Vikings battled through a steady, game-long rain. The Ravens won, 30-23. I don’t think that experience will help Minnesota in this road game against the Saints, especially if Drew Brees is playing for the hosts. New Orleans certainly wants to recapture the top NFC seed from Green Bay, and it is well-equipped to do it.
Tampa Bay 27, Detroit 13 (Saturday afternoon): The Buccaneers appear to have shaken off some mid-season inconsistency and look poised to nail down a wild-card berth. After a more-than-predicable rally against the choke-prone Falcons, thanks to five straight second-half scoring drives. The schedule is doing Tampa Bay a huge favor here with this road game against hapless Detroit.
San Francisco 24, Arizona 23 (Saturday afternoon): These teams slumped at exactly the wrong time and in exactly the wrong division. To me, the NFC West is clearly football’s best, and any drop in form can doom a team into a January on the sidelines. San Francisco, which was eliminated from the playoffs last week in Dallas, has adopted Arizona as its temporary home. Still, it will revert to being a visitor in its new digs against the team that actually holds the lease. The ‘Niners are only the second Super Bowl runner-up over the last 13 years to lose record the following season.
Miami 27, Las Vegas 17 (Saturday night): After losing four of their last five, the Raiders are home again this week. But they blew a major opportunity against the Chargers by losing overtime to a team that hadn’t won a single AFC West Division game in over two years. Las Vegas has the kind of players that can help it contend, but it hasn’t shown the needed consistency to finish the job. Miami definitely has more momentum on its side. A Dolphins’ win here would finish off Las Vegas for all intents and purposes. With Jon Gruden’s record at 18-28 since he arrived, legitimate questions have to be asked about the Raiders’ future.
Baltimore 31, New York Giants 13: In 2004, the Giants came to Baltimore with a rookie quarterback named Eli Manning and got blown out by the Ravens, and Manning was held to a 0.0 passer rating. In 2012, Big Blue came back and again got annihilated by a Ravens’ team slumping at the time. In short, the Giants don’t have good memories of playing teams from Charm City – remember 1958, 1959, and 2000? Despite their good form of late, they won’t have a great day this time, either. It’s hard to prosper against a Ravens team that’s healthy and trending upward again.
Pittsburgh 27, Indianapolis 26: This is an exciting match-up between two teams with a talent edge over most other clubs, but with something just a little bit lacking to make them truly complete teams. Both have good defenses, but Pittsburgh’s is a bit banged up. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball well, and the Colts’ passing game isn’t what it could be–even with Philip Rivers at the helm. Playoff seeding could be at stake here. By the thinnest of margins, I’ll take the home team, which means the Colts’ three-game winning streak will be snapped. But the Steelers have to round themselves into better offensive form quickly, or it’ll be a short playoff run.
Houston 23, Cincinnati 20: This game is quite the opposite of the Indianapolis-Pittsburgh tilt. It features two teams that probably expected more out of this season but fell short instead. Ever since Joe Burrow got hurt, the Bengals have been flailing about at quarterback, while the Texans’ defense keeps leaking points to teams that aren’t very good offensively. I was tempted to take Cincinnati here – its win over Pittsburgh was notable and impressive – but Houston is at home, and Deshaun Watson is still healthy.
Cleveland 27, New York Jets 3: Uh, it’s the Jets… They have a win, but still… moving on…
Kansas City 34, Atlanta 22: Because these teams are in separate conferences, they don’t see each other that often. The Falcons haven’t been to Arrowhead Stadium in eight years, but there will be few, if any, fans to intimidate them. Kansas City has won nine straight and is in pole position to nail down the AFC’s top seed and the bye week that goes with it.
Chicago 34, Jacksonville 6: I haven’t picked the Bears to win too many games this year, but I can’t avoid them when they have a trip to Jacksonville on the schedule. The Jags may have lost 13 straight, but, to be honest, Chicago is not a team I would say is even in the league’s middle tier. But compared to the Jaguars, the 2020 Bears look like the 1985 version.
Carolina 26, Washington 17: Washington has had a better run of form lately, but NFC East teams usually find a way to stumble. I see that happening here with Teddy Bridgewater and company coming to Landover. Ron Rivera fails to get revenge.
Dallas 30, Philadelphia 20: The Dallas defense has gotten better lately, although that’s not saying much. Speaking of which, what can you say about the quarterback play in Philadelphia? Sure, Jalen Hurts has given the Eagles a spark, but he is still a rookie navigating his way through the league for the first time. I see Dallas finishing strong as it begins to plan for next year. The Cowboys were the only NFC East team to win last week, and they are just one game out of the lead. Wow!
Los Angeles Rams 33, Seattle 31: The Seahawks and Rams are fighting over the top spot in football’s toughest division, and that’s why this game should be a mouth-watering match-up. I’d give Seattle’s Russell Wilson the checkmark in the quarterback match-up, but the Rams get the edge when it comes to defense. This should be a terrific game that goes down to the wire.
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Denver 27: Broncos quarterback Drew Lock is healthy again and playing well, while the Chargers’ Justin Herbert has shown lots of grit and heart, particularly late in games. While neither of these teams is nearly good enough to contend with Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West, both squads are laying the foundations for future seasons. LAC is a close one.
Green Bay 31, Tennessee 20 (Sunday night): It’s an interesting interconference battle. The Packers don’t often lose at Lambeau Field and, this year, they want to hold on to the top seed in a loaded NFC. Thanks to NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, the Titans should keep it close for a while, but even though the Titans have won four of five to hang on in a tight AFC South Division race, I still have to go with the Packers.
Buffalo 24, New England 20 (Monday night): The AFC East Division torch has passed to Buffalo. Sean McDermott has done one of the NFL’s best coaching jobs over the last few years. That said, I think this will be a close contest with the Bills either pulling it out or hanging on to win.
